Re-Ranking the Top 25 Available MLB Free Agents Post-Winter Meetings
The MLB free-agent market is getting light, really light.
Max Scherzer and James Shields still headline the class of arms, but as far as position players go, there's Melky Cabrera and not a whole lot else. What follows is a post-winter meetings re-ranking of the top 25 MLB free agents.
The most important factor taken into consideration during the ranking process was how much a given player produced in 2014 and how likely he is to match that level of production next season. A player's broader track record was part of the equation as well.
The top 25 also includes predictions for how much money each free agent will earn this winter. For Scherzer, who claims the No. 1 spot in the rankings, there's even room for an unusual but highly complimentary comparison.
Honorable Mentions
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Before we get started with the top 25, here are the free agents who just missed the cut:
- Geovany Soto, C
- David Ross, C
- Nick Hundley, C
- Jonny Gomes, OF
- Ryan Vogelsong, SP
25. Brett Anderson, SP
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Injuries have always been a significant problem for Brett Anderson. In six big league seasons, the lefty has made 30 starts on just one occasion.
When he does make it to the mound, the former second-round pick has enjoyed success. Last year, Anderson had a 2.91 ERA in eight starts for the Colorado Rockies. According to Jim Bowden of ESPN, the Cleveland Indians have checked in on the 26-year-old starter.
Contract Prediction: One year, $7 million
24. Everth Cabrera, SS
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Everth Cabrera claims a spot in the rankings simply because it's so difficult to find players who are capable of playing shortstop. The 28-year-old was a major disappointment during the 2014 season, as he posted just a .572 OPS.
However, the switcher-hitter was an All-Star as recently as 2013. His agent, Scott Boras, told Jeff Sanders of U-T San Diego that there has already been "interest" in Cabrera following the San Diego Padres' decision to non-tender him earlier in the offseason.
Contract Prediction: One year, $3 million
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23. Gordon Beckham, 2B/3B
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Gordon Beckham was a late addition to the free-agent pool after the Los Angeles Angels non-tendered the 28-year-old.
Beckham's two best attributes are his versatility and his ability to hit left-handed pitching. Last year, the infielder saw time at second base, third base and shortstop while hitting .293 against lefties.
Contract Prediction: Two years, $7 million
22. Casey Janssen, RP
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Casey Janssen didn't help his free-agent stock during the second half of the 2014 season. Following the All-Star break, the right-handed reliever put up a 6.46 ERA.
Even with those struggles, Janssen still has plenty of experience getting big outs in late-game situations. The 33-year-old has recorded at least 22 saves in each of the past three seasons.
Contract Prediction: One year, $5 million
21. Jason Grilli, RP
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Jason Grilli turned his season around following the trade that sent him from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Los Angeles Angels. In 40 appearances for the American League West club, Grilli posted a 3.48 ERA and a 9.6 K/9 ratio.
The 38-year-old will likely be a setup man for his next employer, but he did convert 33 of 35 save opportunities in 2013. As a result, landing a job as a closer isn't out of the question.
Contract Prediction: One year, $7 million
20. Rickie Weeks, 2B
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Rickie Weeks had a lot of problems in the field in 2014. In 62 games at second base, the 32-year-old cost the Milwaukee Brewers 17 runs on defense, per Baseball Info Solutions on Baseball-Reference.com.
At the plate, the right-handed hitter was far more productive. Weeks hit .274 with 19 doubles and an .809 OPS. Considering how weak the free-agent class of second basemen is, Weeks could land a job as a starter.
Contract Prediction: One year, $4 million
19. Aaron Harang, SP
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After an awful season in 2013, Aaron Harang was a steady contributor for the Atlanta Braves last season.
The right-hander, who didn't even join the club until the end of spring training, ended up posting a 12-12 record and a 3.57 ERA in 33 starts. Thanks to those numbers, Harang should have no trouble landing a job as a fourth or fifth starter for a team looking to round out its rotation.
Contract Prediction: One year, $8 million
18. Emilio Bonifacio, UTL
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Emilio Bonifacio would be a perfect fit as a super-sub for a National League team.
Last year, the 29-year-old appeared in games at second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield spots. The switch-hitter also collected 26 steals while splitting the season with the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves.
Contract Prediction: Two years, $8 million
17. Chris Young, SP
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Pitching on a one-year, $1.25 million deal, Chris Young provided the Seattle Mariners with all sorts of value in 2014.
The 35-year-old posted a 12-9 record and a 3.65 ERA on his way to earning the AL Comeback Player of the Year award. The starter also set himself up to earn a major raise this offseason.
Contract Prediction: Two years, $14 million
16. Colby Rasmus, CF
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A lot went wrong for Colby Rasmus in 2014. The left-handed hitter appeared in just 104 games, posted a .225 average and struck out 124 times.
However, he also managed to connect on 18 home runs. It's that pop that makes Rasmus an intriguing option on the free-agent market. There aren't a lot of center fielders up for grabs, and there are even fewer who have the type of power that Rasmus possesses.
Contract Prediction: Two years, $16 million
15. Nori Aoki, RF
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Nori Aoki is one of the better contact hitters in baseball. Last year, the outfielder punched out just 8.9 percent of the time he stepped to the plate, which was the fifth-lowest mark in the big leagues, per FanGraphs.
Aoki also offers solid speed on the basepaths, as he's totaled at least 17 steals in each of his three seasons in the major leagues.
Contract Prediction: Two years, $15 million
14. Alex Rios, RF
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A career .278 hitter, Alex Rios has always had the ability to hit for a high average.
Last year, Rios batted .280 with just four home runs. His numbers likely would have looked much better if not for an array of second-half injuries that sapped his power. On a one-year deal, the outfielder would be a strong buy-low candidate.
Contract Prediction: One year, $10 million
13. Stephen Drew, SS/2B
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The 2014 season was a train wreck for Stephen Drew.
The shortstop hit just .162 in 85 games for the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Considering how poorly 2014 played out, signing a one-year deal in an attempt to rebuild his value would be a logical choice for Drew.
Contract Prediction: One year, $8 million
12. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS/2B
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Asdruba Cabrera's glove work is questionable at best. Last year, the veteran cost the Washington Nationals 10 runs on defense in just 48 games at second base, per Baseball Info Solutions on Baseball-Reference.com.
While his defense is problematic, Cabrera does offer an unusual amount of pop for a middle infielder. In 2014, the switch-hitter went yard 14 times. Cabrera has now totaled at least 14 homers in four consecutive seasons.
Contract Prediction: Three years, $24 million
11. Jed Lowrie, SS/2B
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Jed Lowrie's contract year didn't exactly go to plan.
While playing shortstop for the Oakland Athletics, the switch-hitter swung at a clip of .249 while connecting on just six home runs. The 30-year-old did manage to club 29 doubles.
Even though his subpar arm and lack of range leave him best-suited to play second base, Lowrie should benefit from the fact that there simply aren't a lot of quality middle infielders to be had on the free-agent market.
Contract Prediction: Three years, $24 million
10. Rafael Soriano, RP
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Rafael Soriano lost his gig as the Washington Nationals closer late in the season after a disastrous final three months of the year.
After the All-Star break, the 34-year-old was torched to the tune of a 6.48 ERA. It's worth noting that Soriano was very effective during the first half of the season. In 37 appearances leading up to the Midsummer Classic, he posted a 0.97 ERA and converted 22 out of 24 save opportunities.
Signing the veteran is definitely a gamble, but adding him on a one-year deal could turn out to be an excellent move.
Contract Prediction: One year, $7 million
9. Hiroki Kuroda, SP
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As New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman explained, via Brendan Kuty of The Star-Ledger, it remains to be seen whether Hiroki Kuroda will pitch in 2015.
The right-hander will be 40 years old by the time next season opens up. However, if he does return, Kuroda would be a valuable contributor for a variety of clubs. The starter has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of his seven big league campaigns and has totaled at least 199 innings of work in each of the last four.
Contract Prediction: One year, $15 million
8. Francisco Rodriguez, RP
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Francisco Rodriguez would climb even higher up this list if not for an underwhelming second half of the 2014 season.
After posting a 2.58 ERA entering the All-Star break, the right-handed reliever put up a 3.97 ERA in 24 outings after the Midsummer Classic. Even though he dropped off, Rodriguez still remains one of the top unsigned potential closers.
Contract Prediction: Two years, $12 million
7. Sergio Romo, RP
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Even though he spent the majority of the 2014 season pitching in the eighth inning, Sergio Romo has the ability to close out ballgames as well.
In 2013, the right-hander locked up 38 saves out of 43 chances. His track record of getting big outs in the late innings sets up Romo to rake in a multiyear contract this winter.
Contract Prediction: Three years, $18 million
6. Jake Peavy, SP
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Jake Peavy boosted his free-agent stock big time following a midseason trade to the San Francisco Giants.
In 12 starts for the NL West club, the right-hander reeled off a 6-4 record and a 2.17 ERA. Remaining in the NL would be a shrewd move for Peavy, as he owns a career 3.23 ERA in that circuit compared to a 4.13 mark in the AL.
Contract Prediction: Two years, $25 million
5. Edinson Volquez, SP
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Edinson Volquez earned himself a lot of cash last season.
While pitching on a one-year, $5 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, the right-handed starter posted a 13-7 record and a 3.04 ERA. The 31-year-old was lights-out during his final 10 starts of the regular season, as he accumulated a 5-0 mark and a 1.36 ERA.
Contract Prediction: Three years, $33 million
4. Chase Headley, 3B
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It's not his .243 average or his .700 OPS during the 2014 season that makes Chase Headley a valuable player on the free-agent market. What makes the switch-hitter valuable is that he can play third base.
The 30-year-old is the only starting-caliber player available at that spot, and as a result, Headley is a strong candidate to get paid more than he's actually worth.
Contract Prediction: Four years, $44 million
3. James Shields, SP
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James Shields is about as consistent as it gets.
The right-handed starter has piled up at least 200 innings of work in eight consecutive seasons. While Shields' ability to take the mound every fifth day is impressive, it's also worth wondering just how many innings the veteran starter has left.
Shields will be 33 by the time Opening Day rolls around, and he will also cost his new team a draft pick after he rejected a qualifying offer from the Kansas City Royals earlier in the offseason.
Contract Prediction: Four years, $72 million
2. Melky Cabrera, LF
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UPDATE: Bruce Levine of WSCR-AM reported Saturday night that Melky Cabrera agreed to a three-year deal with the Chicago White Sox. He added that the deal "should be in $45 million range."
Melky Cabrera claims the No. 2 spot on the list because he is unquestionably the most dangerous hitter left on the free-agent block.
Last year, the outfielder checked in with a .301 average and racked up 54 extra-base hits, including 16 home runs. The switch-hitter is also a relatively young free agent, as he won't turn 31 until next August. His offensive production and the lack of viable free-agent outfielder options make Cabrera a prime candidate to land a four-year deal.
Contract Prediction: Four years, $56 million
1. Max Scherzer, SP
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Agent Scott Boras is doing everything he can to make sure that his client, Max Scherzer, cashes in. Boras has even compared the 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner to one of the greatest NFL signal-callers of recent memory.
"He's a Peyton Manning, No. 1 kind of guy. I think every general manager in baseball wants Max Scherzer on their team," said Boras, via Anthony French of USA Today.
Whether any GM wants to pay Scherzer what he's looking for is an entirely different matter. According to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the right-hander is asking for more than $200 million.
Contract Prediction: Seven years, $196 million
Note: All stats courtesy of MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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