2015 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook for Week 15

College football's regular season is over, and bowl game preparation is underway for many teams while job openings are filled and top underclassmen make their NFL draft plans. Early December is a busy month for football fans with college football ending, the NFL season heading into the playoff push and so many draft-eligible players making decisions. How can you keep up with it all? By reading this article each Friday, of course.

This week we'll update the Underclassmen Tracker, look at Mel Kiper Jr.'s statement that there is no franchise quarterback in this draft class and touch on all the rumors and news coming out of scouting meetings in Indianapolis this past week.

And because so many of you asked for it on Twitter, there's a new Round 1 Mock Draft included too.

The Scout's Report

— This week I sent my preliminary top 150 ranking of draft-eligible players to NFL area scouts, college scouting directors and general managers. Below are quotes received back from them on how my rankings differ from their own preliminary grades. For competitive purposes (i.e. not letting other teams see where they rank players), all requested I not use their name or team affiliation.

— On Marcus Mariota: "I don't care so much about the scheme, but he doesn't hit deep balls very well. That's our issue." "He's wired perfectly. Kid loves to compete and has an amazing work ethic." "How do you draft him No. 1 overall with every running QB in the NFL struggling right now?"

— On Jameis Winston: "I wouldn't draft him in the 7th round or sign him as a free agent." "If you're ranking the player only, he's worth (top five)."  

— On Ohio State's Michael Bennett: "You have him ranked a lot higher than we do. He's a two (Round 2) for us." "Can he play in enough schemes to be a one (Round 1 player)? He's a one-gap 3-tech only." "I know he's going to get the Aaron Donald comparison, but he's not that powerful or that quick."

— On Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook: "We're preparing for him like he's coming out, even if he said he's not." "He's a top-15 pick if he enters." "Supply and demand says this kid goes early Round 1. He's the best pocket passer in the class." 

— On the offensive tackle class: "(Andrus) Peat and (Ronnie) Stanley are competing for the top spot." "The A&M kid (Cedric Ogbuehi) really struggled this year. We have him as a two." "(Brandon) Scherff is a pretty safe pick if you think he's a guard. Someone will draft him as a tackle, though." 

— USC quarterback Cody Kessler has been looked at as a potential savior of the 2015 quarterback class as there is a need for a middle-of-the-round quarterback. I'm told by sources at USC that Kessler has been active in trying to recruit draft-eligible players to return to school. Those same sources said they would be "shocked" if Kessler declared.

— Indiana running back Tevin Coleman is expected to make an NFL draft decision within the next two weeks, but I'm told by a source close to Coleman that he's already made his decision and is only waiting to announce he will enter the 2015 NFL draft.

— Here's an updated list of players who have officially declared for the 2015 NFL draft. I'll update this each week.

Player	Pos	School
Brett Hundley	QB	UCLA
Melvin Gordon	RB	Wisconsin
Matt Scott	RB	Florida
Devin Funchess	WR	Michigan
Tyler Moore	OG	Florida
Dante Fowler, Jr.	DE	Florida
Eli Harold	DE	Virginia
Lorenzo Doss	CB	Tulane
Durrell Eskridge	FS	Syracuse

Five Up, Five Down

Each week, "Five Up, Five Down" will monitor the movements of players on my draft board.

5. DE Eli Harold, Virginia

A junior edge-rusher at Virginia, Eli Harold announced his plans to enter the 2015 NFL draft this week. That meant taking the time to watch three introductory games from the 250-pound pass-rusher. I was impressed.

Harold has the burst off the edge and the obvious athleticism to be a fixture as a stand-up rusher in a 3-4 defense, but he could also play with his hand in the dirt in a place like Seattle or Jacksonville where they emphasize smaller, faster defensive ends.

Harold looks like an early Day 2 player at this time. 

4. OLB Paul Dawson, TCU

The TCU defense gave up big numbers at times in 2014, but linebacker Paul Dawson did his part to attack the offense at every stop. And when watching Big 12 games over the past week, it's No. 47 who continually popped off the film.

Dawson doesn't have elite size, but at a listed 230 pounds and with good bulk he's plenty big enough to play as a 4-3 outside linebacker. His range and instincts back that up, too. He has the look of a Day 1 NFL starter.

3. WR Sammie Coates, Auburn

The Auburn Tigers took a step back in 2014 after dominating on their way to the national title game in 2013, but one area where the team was actually better was in their wide receiver play. Notably, Sammie Coates and teammate Duke Williams.

Turn on an Auburn game and you'll see Coates making big plays. He has the size (6'2", 201 lbs) and athleticism to be a threat with the ball in his hands or as a route-runner. He can get up-field in a hurry, too, and has the goods to step into a role as a deep threat early and with the potential to become a complete No. 1 wide receiver in the near future. 

2. WR Duke Williams, Auburn

Coates may be the better known player at Auburn, but former JUCO star Duke Williams may be the better NFL player.

Williams (6'2", 216 lbs) has rare traits and can attack the ball in-flight. His instincts as a catcher are impressive, and even though he's a bit raw as a route-runner and technician, you can see him consistently improving in these areas. Once placed in a pro-level system with pro-level coaching, Williams could be a star. 

1. CB P.J. Williams, FSU

One week ago P.J. Williams was on this list moving down, but a strong game against Georgia Tech showed that Williams is still the promising prospect I've seen at times this year.

Williams will go through rough patches in coverage, but he's one of the toughest cornerbacks I've seen all year and that shows up big in his ability to attack the edge and take on the run. Williams hits with a thump, and may even consider a move to free safety so that he can be relieved of some of the man coverage duties that have hurt him this fall. 

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1. DE Shilique Calhoun, Michigan State

Before the season began, I had Shilique Calhoun as a first-round talent based on his 2013 tape, his athleticism and his potential to be even better in 2014. But as the Michigan State defense took a step back, so did Calhoun. Now he's looking more like a Day 2 player.

The size and strength are obvious from Calhoun, but the quickness needed to be an edge-rusher at his size (6'4", 257 lbs) doesn't show up consistently when viewing their games. He has potential, but the quickness and burst needed to excel aren't there yet. 

2. OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M

A top-10 player heading into the season, Cedric Ogbuehi hasn't quite lived up to expectations that were placed on him after a strong 2013 campaign at right tackle. The move to the left side to replace Jake Matthews was supposed to propel the athletic Ogbuehi into a sure-fire early draft pick but instead it brought out weaknesses in his game.

Ogbuehi is athletic enough to excel, but he needs to be re-worked as a technician before he's ready to play as a blindside protector in the NFL. That potential is good enough to warrant a top-20 pick, but he's no longer that elite prospect he was once expected to become. 

3. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon

If you notice a theme here—of players ranked highly before the season that have crashed down to Earth—you've nailed it. And Oregon cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu fits the bill.

Size and long speed were always going to be concerns with Ekpre-Olomu given his 5'9 1/4" size, but this year he struggled more in man coverage and wasn't the same feisty impact player locked up against bigger receivers. I do like Ekpre-Olomu as a top-50 player, and he could become a stud in the slot, but he's no longer the No. 1 cornerback in this class. 

4. WR Nelson Agholor, USC

Here is the rare case of moving a player down in the rankings even though I've really enjoyed watching his development in 2014.

Nelson Agholor was overrated by me heading into the season. I thought he had Odell Beckham, Jr. potential to explode onto the scene and finish his college career with the type of skills to become a Round 1 player. Agholor just isn't that type of player—and that's OK, he's still a good pass-catcher, but he is more of a catch-and-go talent and less of a dynamic down-the-field threat. 

5. QB Bryce Petty, Baylor

Injuries, poor play (hello, Texas game) and questions about scheme fit have clouded over Bryce Petty's senior season. And more than any other quarterback in this class, I walk away from his games unsure of what I'm seeing.

Petty's accuracy on short-to-intermediate routes is good, and he has nice zip and timing on those passes. But asked to throw down the field or outside the hashes, he's not as precise. This is also a system that doesn't ask him to progress through reads or throw in tight windows often.

Petty has been invited to the Senior Bowl—a stage where he can prove his talent and convince NFL scouts he belongs. If I were advising him, that's exactly what he would do. 

Scouting Report: Bud Dupree, Kentucky

Throughout the 2014 college football season, one draft prospect will be highlighted each week with a first-look scouting report.

Wade Payne/Associated Press

Edge-Rusher (Defensive end/Outside linebacker) Alvin "Bud" Dupree, Kentucky (6'5", 267 lbs)

Strengths

• Elite athlete with grown-man strength, ideal wingspan and very good burst.
• Tackles with power and can be an intimidating hitter in space.
• Has flexible hips and goes from speed-to-power well on the edge (but not inside).
• Gives 100 percent in pursuit and makes plays on opposite field and way past line of scrimmage. 
• Scheme versatile in that he can play left or right end or stand up at linebacker.
• Pops off game film as a player who lives around the ball. Impact defender consistently.
• Shows good Football IQ in reading-and-reacting to different offensive schemes.
• Coaches praise his work ethic and wiring as a player who "gets it."
• Added 15 pounds of muscle to his frame before senior season, per coaches.
• Traveled to Ethiopia on a service trip in May 2013 (per Kentucky).
• Started 26 consecutive games.

Weaknesses

• Must learn secondary pass-rushing moves. Needs a Plan-B pass rush.
• Doesn't generate a ton of power for a good bull rush. 
• May be physically maxed out.
• Film shows his production was at times uncontested and a routine play.
• Has to improve angles to the ball-carrier vs. the run.
• Can be slow off the ball and may be mis-timing snap anticipation.

Pro Player Comparison: DeMarcus Ware, Denver Broncos

Scouting Dictionary

"Inventory"

A term related to quarterbacks and specifically the types of passes they're able to throw. Coming out of college, a quarterback may not be prepared to throw a 20-yard out route on time, so that pass isn't in his "inventory."

With the popularity of spread offenses and so many quick-hit type passing attacks, quarterback inventories are becoming less complex and more basic. A solid quarterback inventory is everything from a dump-off or screen pass all the way to a nine-route straight down the field. 

The Big Board

Doing a mock draft in December can be dangerous, especially if the expectations are that this is what the draft will look like in late April. But look at an early mock draft like this—if the draft were today, knowing what we know about team needs (pre-free agency), coaching staffs and player ability, this is how the draft could look. The NFL draft is a fluid process, and that process is really just getting underway. That means don't go writing these picks in ink but use them to understand where players are ranked now and where teams have needs.

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay	QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
2	Tennessee	OLB Randy Gregory, Nebraska
3	Jacksonville	DE Shane Ray, Missouri
4	New York Jets	QB Jameis Winston, FSU
5	Oakland	WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
6	Washington	DE Leonard Williams, USC
7	New York Giants	OLB Shaq Thompson, Washington
8	Carolina	OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame
9	New Orleans	OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky
10	Chicago	SS Landon Collins, Alabama
11	Minnesota	OL Brandon Scherff, Iowa
12	St. Louis	QB Connor Cook, Michigan State
13	Houston	CB Marcus Peters, Washington
14	Cleveland	WR DeVante Parker, Louisville
15	Miami	WR Kevin White, West Virginia
16	Kansas City	FS Gerod Holliman, Louisville
17	Cleveland (from BUF)	DT Danny Shelton, Washington
18	San Francisco	CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State
19	Baltimore	CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest
20	Dallas	OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
21	Atlanta	OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson
22	Pittsburgh	OT La'el Collins, LSU
23	San Diego	OT T.J. Clemmings, Pitt
24	Cincinnati	DT Malcolm Brown, Texas
25	Detroit	DT Eddie Goldman, FSU
26	Philadelphia	CB Jalen Collins, LSU
27	Indianapolis	ILB Benardrick McKinney, Miss. State
28	Seattle	RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
29	Green Bay	WR/TE Devin Funchess, Michigan
30	New England	WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
31	Denver	OT Ty Sambrailo, Colorado State
32	Arizona	OT Andrus Peat, Stanford

Parting Shots

10. The 2015 Senior Bowl is shaping up to be a good one. The Senior Bowl committee announced more accepted invitations this week. Here is the complete list of accepted invitations thus far:

QB Shane Carden, ECU	G Laken Tomlinson, Duke	ILB Denzell Perryman, Miami
RB Jeremy Langford, Michigan St.	G Robert Myers, Tenn. State	ILB Stephone Anthony, Clemson
RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn	C Reese Dismukes, Auburn	OLB Zach Hodges, Harvard
RB David Johnson, Northern Iowa	C Andy Gallik, Boston College	OLB Lynden Trail, Norfolk State
RB David Cobb, Minnesota	C Hroniss Grasu, Oregon	OLB Martrell Spaight, Arkansas
FB Tyler Varga, Yale	LS Andrew East, Vanderbilt	OLB Jordan Hicks, Texas
WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami	LS Joe Cardona, Navy	OLB Mike Hull, Penn State
WR Jamison Crowder, Duke	DE Corey Crawford, Clemson	CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
WR Justin Hardy, ECU	DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa, UCLA	CB Quinten Rollins, Miami (OH)
WR Josh Harper, Fresno State	DE Geneo Grissom, Oklahoma	CB Ladarius Gunter, Miami
WR Donatella Luckett, Harding	DE Nate Orchard, Utah	CB Eric Rowe, Utah
WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford	DE Hau'oli Kikaha, Washington	CB Kevin johnson, Wake Forst
WR Vince Mayle, Washington St.	DE Bud Dupree, Kentucky	CB Quandre Diggs, Texas
WR Dezmin Lewis, Central Ark.	DE Trey Flowers, Arkansas	CB Imoan Claiborne, Northwestern St
WR Devante Davis, UNLV	DE Preston Smith, Miss. State	CB Steven Nelson, Oregon State
WR Tony Lippett, Michigan St.	DT Joey Mbu, Houston	CB D'Joun Smith, FAU
WR Dres Anderson, Utah	DT Danny Shelton, Washington	CB Senquez Golson Ole Miss
TE Nick Boyle, Delaware	DT Grady Jarrett, Clemson	S Anthony Harris, Virginia
TE E.J. Bibbs, Iowa State	DT Kaleb Eulls, Miss. State	S Jaquiski Tartt, Samford
T Jake Fisher, Oregon	DT Michael Bennett, Ohio State	S Damarious Randall, Arizona St.
T Ali Marpet, Hobart	DT Carl Davis, Iowa	S Derron Smith, Fresno State
T Daryl Williams, Oklahoma	DT Louis Trinca-Pasat, Iowa	S Kurtis Drummond, Michigan St.
T T.J. Clemmings, Pitt	DT Gabe Wright, Auburn	S Cody Prewitt, Ole Miss
T Ty Sambrailo, Colorado St.	ILB Ramik Wilson, Georgia	S Adrian Amos, Penn State
T Rob Havenstein, Wisconsin	ILB Hayes Pullard, USC

9. Coaches talk to the media every day, and that relationship often breeds leaks from within team offices that otherwise would never see the light of day. That happened this week when Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer criticized quarterback Jay Cutler to NFL Network...but then something different happened. He admitted it (subscription required).

Per the original report, courtesy of Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, the Bears had "buyer's remorse" over Cutler's contract. But Kromer says that didn't come from him, he only expressed his frustration with Cutler's play after the loss in Week 14.

This is a slippery slope and one I've never seen in my time covering the NFL. For a coach to criticize the starting quarterback and then admit it? That's rare.

8. Hobart College. Ever heard of it? I hadn't either. It's a tiny liberal arts college in Geneva, New York (and I didn't know where that was until Google helped me). But here's the thing—NFL scouts have been popular at Hobart this fall thanks to offensive tackle Ali Marpet.

Marpet is what makes the draft a truly great event. Small school, no-name player most fans have never heard of, but his skill set and upside are promising enough that he's getting a serious pro look. Serious enough that he's already accepted a Senior Bowl invite.

He'll be a fun player to track in Mobile but what I've seen on some grainy coaches film on what looks like a high school field is a dominant player with pro tools after going the whole season without allowing a sack.

7. Jay Gruden made news Thursday when he said he has seen enough from quarterback Robert Griffin III to know what he has in the third-year quarterback. That's not good news, folks.

If what Gruden has seen is enough to form an opinion, and Colt McCoy is still your starter, then the assumption that Gruden doesn't see RGIII as the future in Washington has become a cold, hard fact. Time will tell whether or not owner Daniel Snyder will let Gruden dictate who his starting quarterback is, but this looks like a battle between owner and coach that will have a lasting impression on the future of this franchise. Snyder is a control freak, and Gruden may be the guy to bring this team out of the dumpster, but that can't happen if he's not allowed to move on from Griffin.

6. What were my pre-draft thoughts on RGIII? I get asked this a lot, so it was worthwhile to find my report on him from before the 2012 NFL draft for posting.

I had RGIII ranked No. 2 overall in that class—behind Andrew Luck—but didn't give him a grade close to where Luck was at. That said, Griffin entered the draft with the second-highest quarterback grade I had given out since 2004, so the expectation was that he would be a long-term starter in the pros and an upper-level performer barring injury.

You can find the full mid-season report on RGIII here. 

5. Speaking of quarterbacks...ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper, Jr. said in a conference call that he doesn't see a "franchise quarterback" in this year's draft class. 

That's a bold statement in early December. Kiper currently has Marcus Mariota ranked No. 1 on his draft board and Jameis Winston ranked at No. 6 overall (subscription required). That seems like a high grade for a non-franchise quarterback, but that's also a term I don't like using to describe a prospect.

Could Mariota or Winston become franchise quarterbacks? I think so. But they aren't Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning. They won't walk into an NFL locker room and immediately play at a level high enough to warrant the franchise label. And that's not a knock on them. It's just the reality.

4. The Ohio State Buckeyes are in the College Football Playoff and on their third quarterback of the season. So what to make of their cluttered quarterback depth chart for 2015? Braxton Miller will be back off injury, J.T. Barrett was damn-near a Heisman candidate in his first season starting and Cardale Jones tore up Wisconsin in a must-win game. Who do they send to the bench?

Here's my suggestion: Play Miller at running back.

The star senior may flirt with a transfer to showcase his arm for NFL teams, but Miller isn't the type of passer NFL teams are looking for unless he makes drastic changes to his accuracy and decision-making. What he is, though, is a fantastic athlete and runner from the shotgun. Kind of like Denard Robinson was at Michigan.

Let Barrett and Jones compete for the job—maybe even let them split reps—but Miller's future in the NFL is likely at running back. Playing him there now makes the most sense for everyone involved.

3. One more note that kind of includes quarterbacks. 

I get asked a lot why I ignore stats in my evaluation process. It's not fair to say I ignore all stats, because I do look at things like tackles for a loss, dropped passes, sacks taken and more advanced tracking. But to look simply at a quarterback's passing yards or a running back's touchdowns can be too misleading and doesn't often relate to NFL talent. 

Let's take a look at a stat for reference. These are the top 10 quarterbacks all-time in college football passing. How many of them have become even above-average NFL quarterbacks?

Player	NFL Status
1. Case Keenum, Houston	Practice Squad, STL
2. Timmy Chang, Hawaii	Undrafted (2005), out of the league
3. Landry Jones, Oklahoma	Fourth-round pick (2013)
4. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech	Undrafted (2009), out of the league
5. Ty Detmer, BYU	Ninth-round pick (1992), 25 NFL starts
6. Kellen Moore, Boise State	Undrafted (2012), No. 3 QB DET
7. Colt Brennan, Hawaii	Sixth-round pick (2008), out of the league
8. Rakeem Cato, Marshall	Current late-round QB prospect
9. Sean Mannion, Oregon State	Current late-round QB prospect
10. Phillip Rivers, North Carolina State	No. 4 overall pick (2004), 5-time Pro Bowler

2. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 draft is off to a very rough start, but it's way too early to talk about Jadeveon Clowney as a bust.

Clowney underwent microfracture surgery on his knee this week and the expected rehab time is nine months. That means he'll be doubtful to start training camp for his second NFL season after dealing with numerous injuries throughout his rookie year. But still, Clowney was worth that No. 1 overall pick on talent, upside and the value of the selection for the Houston Texans.

I've always been torn on whether or not an injury-shortened career qualifies a player as a bust, and I don't think it does. Clowney may be off to a bad start, but he's only 21 years old and could have a lot of football left ahead of him.

1. I have to close this one out on a personal note and congratulate coach Scott Bailey, his staff and his players on their fourth-straight Class 2A state championship. Coach Bailey is the head man for the Lamar Tigers in my hometown of 4,500 people. His staff has built a consistent winner not just on the football field, but the entire athletic department is dominating as of late.