Scott Miller's Starting 9: Major Trading Frenzy Expected at Winter Meetings
SAN DIEGO — 1. Jon Lester: Leadoff Hitter
Here's the way several industry sources envision the winter meetings unfolding this week in San Diego: Free agent Jon Lester makes his decision, and then the action really begins. Or, if you prefer to use the old standby: The rest of the dominoes will begin falling.
Lester was thought to be making his decision last week after visiting the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants. Then the Los Angeles Dodgers jumped in, and now everyone is going all amateur detective attempting to read the signs.
The Cubs will land him, some within the industry swear, because they're ready to win, and Lester has a longstanding relationship with club president Theo Epstein from their Boston days. Plus, new Cubs special assistant to the GM Ryan Dempster has joined the Cubs' recruiting brigade.
The Red Sox will get him, others swear, because they've got a Brink's truck they can roll up to his house, they're primed to win again and he's so familiar with them. Plus, how could a guy resist David Ortiz's smile?
The Giants will land him, some think, because they need someone to anchor their staff now that Matt Cain is a graybeard, and they've got spending money now that Pablo Sandoval turned them down. Plus, San Francisco is so stealth under general manager Brian Sabean and his staff, who do not leak much to the media. When they signed Barry Zito several years ago, it shocked everyone.
The Dodgers will bag him, others think, because they've got more money than Bill Gates, and Zack Greinke has an opt-out clause after this season and could be pitching elsewhere in 2016.
The Braves, a few folks think, could surprise because of their proximity to Lester's offseason Georgia home.
"I think the Dodgers are going to be the dark horse, overpay and get him," one industry source says. "I've seen them at work. I've seen it a thousand times in baseball, a dark horse in the running, and that dark horse always rises.
"The Dodgers have that kind of money. Nobody can compete with them if they don't want them to."
2. Feeding Frenzy at the Trading Tables
Do you love good, old-fashioned trades? Perfect. These winter meetings will be right down your alley.
Among the pitchers who could be traded: the Phillies' Cole Hamels, the Nationals' Jordan Zimmermann, the Athletics' Jeff Samardzija, the Reds' Mat Latos (or Mike Leake or even Johnny Cueto), the Mets' Bartolo Colon (or Dillon Gee or Jon Niese), the Padres' Ian Kennedy (or Andrew Cashner or Tyson Ross). That, probably, is only a partial list.
"The cost of what's left in the free-agent pitching market is enormous," one veteran American League scout says. "Max Scherzer is looking at $25 million a year. Lester is going to command $25 million a year, depending on how many years. James Shields is the lesser of the three evils.
"I think guys would much rather trade for a pitcher, because all of the finances are in front of them. And the cost is going to be quite a bit less. I think that's going to be the flavor of the day."
Another longtime scout agrees, but only to a point.
"The problem is, a lot of clubs are going to want to get back zero to three pitching," says the scout, referring to pitchers who are not making money yet because of little service time (the "zero to three" means years of major league service time). "Limited service, but major league-tested starting pitchers.
"Those guys have more value than anybody in our game right now. That's why the Shelby Miller trade didn't make a lot of sense to me [he went from the Cardinals to the Braves in November's Jason Heyward deal]."
Says a third veteran baseball man: "There's certainly been a lot of discussion about five-plus pitchers. You hear about David Price, Samardzija, Zimmermann, guys on real good teams rumored to be on the block that make you scratch your head and say, 'Suck it up, get your draft choice for a guy [when he leaves via free agency] and have a chance to win now.
"I think part of it is so many pitchers get hurt; I think maybe teams are looking at it like, 'We're not going to sign this guy, so maybe we can get somebody back that we can keep for a while.' I think that's a trend.
"Tommy John surgery was an epidemic last year. The hard throwers break. You're going to give a guy five or six years and $100 million, and you figure you're going to lose a year [while the pitcher rehabs from surgery]."
Then, there are the other guys this week who are particularly desirable in today's game…
3. Everybody Wants a Hitter
Look at the free-agent board right now: The top three pitchers—Lester, Max Scherzer and James Shields—remain unsigned. Yet a slew of free-agent hitters already have signed: Nelson Cruz (Seattle Mariners), Sandoval (Red Sox), Hanley Ramirez (Red Sox), Nick Markakis (Braves), Adam LaRoche (Chicago White Sox), Russell Martin (Toronto Blue Jays) and Victor Martinez (Detroit Tigers).
Thing is, even at that, that's not even close to filling the wants and desires of other hitter-hungry clubs. Everybody wants more offense, and it's easy to see why:
Runs per game last summer (4.07) came at the lowest rate over a full 162-game season since 1976 (3.99), according to Baseball-Reference.com. Hits per game (8.56) were at their lowest since 1972 (8.19).
Which is why the Cleveland Indians reportedly are in line to acquire first baseman Brandon Moss from the Oakland Athletics, per Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. The Miami Marlins, after awarding the monster $325 million deal to Giancarlo Stanton, tried hard to get LaRoche to help protect him in the lineup, and they inquired about Josh Donaldson, sources tell Bleacher Report, before the A's shipped Donaldson to Toronto.
UPDATE: Multiple reports, including this one from Yahoo's Jeff Passan, report that the deal is done:
The Padres are desperate for a hitter. And the line behind them snakes all the way through the Grand Hyatt lobby, out the door and down the street to the nearest fish-taco stand.
"Power is a premium in the game right now," one NL executive says. "The three-run home run is a great thing."
And that's why, now that the best free-agent hitters available are down to Melky Cabrera, Chase Headley and Michael Morse, clubs are looking to Los Angeles, Atlanta and Boston for bats...
4. Who Wants Matt Kemp (Or Any Other L.A. Outfielder)?
The Dodgers' acquisition of outfielder Chris Heisey from Cincinnati for reliever Matt Magill last week elicited chuckles throughout the game. Because the Dodgers already had more outfielders than there are Kardashians.
With Joc Pederson ready for prime time, and with Andre Ethier explaining that it's time he regained his full-time job or move along, something is guaranteed to give in a Dodgers outfield that also includes Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford and Scott Van Slyke.
And judging by industry chatter, there is no question that the Dodgers are fielding more calls on Matt Kemp than anybody else. He makes absolute sense in Baltimore, Seattle, San Diego and any number of other places.
"Heck, there are teams that would like Van Slyke," one executive says. "He hit 11 HRs and didn't play very much [just 246 plate appearances in 98 games]."
With five years and $107 million remaining on Kemp's contract, the Dodgers will have to eat some of that money to deal him.
They also are working through an alley in which there are plenty more options: The Braves are dangling outfielder Justin Upton (and possibly Evan Gattis), and Boston is the AL version of the Dodgers, with too many outfielders in Fenway Park. Many think Yoenis Cespedes is the guy Sox GM Ben Cherington will deal. Or maybe Allen Craig.
5. What, Exactly, Are the Athletics Doing?
It's everybody's favorite "Hot Stove" game, trying to keep up with A's president Billy Beane. Dealing Josh Donaldson to Toronto, especially after signing Billy Butler, sent everyone looking over their shoulders. Because they're wary that maybe Oakland has discovered a new market inefficiency that they're not yet privy to.
"My curiosity coming into this is what the hell is Billy Beane doing?" an executive with a rival AL West club says. "There's something there. He's got something up his sleeve. I don't know what it is. I don't know how you unload your two best players [Donaldson and Yoenis Cespedes] in a six-month time frame and expect to compete.
"Brett Lawrie and Billy Butler replacing Cespedes and Donaldson? That's not even close. Why would he give up the ghost when he's got all that pitching? A.J. Griffin, Jarrod Parker and a really good bullpen. I'm not exactly sure where everything's going with him. If he screws this up and they end up in fourth place next year…how many times do you get that opportunity with those kind of young pitchers and not try to win?"
6. And After Lester?
The general consensus of several industry sources headed to San Diego is this: Lester will be the first to sign (see item No. 1). Shields will be next. And Scherzer, who is represented by Scott Boras, will sign, oh, far closer to when pitchers and catchers report than to the winter meetings.
Boras' standard operating procedure in recent years is to wait for others to sign and establish a market…then exceed that market. So, don't bother waiting up this week. Another reason Scherzer might take a while? The club that winds up signing him might not have room on the payroll (or roster) until it makes a trade to make some room. Such as, oh, I don't know…the Nationals.
Conspiracy theories abound that what Washington GM Mike Rizzo is up to this winter is working to deal Zimmermann with the grand plan of signing Scherzer. One thing to keep in mind: Boras has a fabulous working relationship with the Nationals. Among his Washington clients: Jayson Werth, Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon and Danny Espinosa.
As for the other free-agent starters, Jake Peavy, Ervin Santana, Jason Hammel, Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, Brandon McCarthy and others probably are going to have to cool it until Lester and Shields sign, if not Scherzer.
"The whole focus is going to be on Scherzer, Lester and Shields," one scout says. "I think Lester is No. 1 in that group."
Says another scout: "I may be the lone wolf, but I have Scherzer No. 3. He's always been a follower, not a leader, to me. How many times has he been out there with the World Series on the line, and it's the seventh inning and 100 pitches, and he's done?"
On the other hand, Scherzer has less wear and tear on his arm, according to one of a slew of statistics cited by Boras in his selling of Scherzer, as pointed out by Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
According to those numbers, Scherzer has thrown 20,954 pitches in his career, to Lester's 26,321 and Shields' 29,461.
7. The Yankees, the Red Sox and the Luxury-Tax Threshold
Big day in the Bronx on Friday when they acquired shortstop Didi Gregorius and signed setup man Andrew Miller for four years and $36 million.
So now one of the looming questions in the game this winter has been answered: Who will replace Derek Jeter? Right now, Gregorius and Brendan Ryan, according to GM Brian Cashman. Gregorius' lifetime batting average against lefties (in only 180 plate appearances) is .184, but he is absolutely a defensive upgrade over Jeter.
What bears watching with the New York Yankees is this: They've studiously worked to avoid blowing past the $189 million luxury-tax threshold in their player payroll. Some in the industry think they'll still be players on Scherzer before the winter ends. We'll see.
What we do know is Red Sox owner John Henry has publicly said his club will have no problem crossing that threshold for 2015. And after signing Panda and Hanley, count on the Red Sox adding at least one of the Big Three free-agent starters.
8. Other Points of Interest Beyond San Diego's Mexican Restaurants
• The Cubs and Red Sox, persistently linked by the Theo Epstein connection, went head-to-head over manager Dale Sveum a few years ago and now are battling over Lester and Co. Both Chicago and Boston have gaping holes in their rotation that they are determined to fill.
• The Baltimore Orioles have had a steady stream of departures (Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Andrew Miller) without any additions. Last year, they waited until spring training before signing starter Ubaldo Jimenez. Will GM Dan Duquette move more quickly this year? Does he have the freedom to, or does owner Peter Angelos have the budget under lock and key?
• Big meetings for new Atlanta Braves GM John Hart, who is looking to unload Justin Upton, B.J. Upton or both. He's already traded away Jason Heyward to St. Louis and acquired starter Shelby Miller. He also acquired Markakis, only to learn Markakis may need surgery for a herniated disk in his neck. Mixed winter so far for the Braves.
• The Phillies desperately need to retool an old team heading in the wrong direction. But GM Ruben Amaro stubbornly refused to deal at the July trade deadline. Cole Hamels is drawing a lot of attention. He should deal outfielder Marlon Byrd and closer Jonathan Papelbon. We'll see.
• Colorado could shake things up quickly by deciding to deal Troy Tulowitzki or Carlos Gonzalez. There is little indication the Rockies have the appetite to do that. But there are indications that Tulowitzki is ready to move along if given the opportunity. No telling what new Rockies GM Jeff Bridich will do (yet), but the club would like to upgrade both its rotation and bullpen.
9. The Golden Era and the Hall of Fame
Practically before everyone downs their second cups of coffee Monday morning, we're guaranteed some news: The Golden Era Committee might vote Dick Allen, Minnie Minoso, Jim Kaat or someone else into the Hall of Fame. Committee members met over the weekend and will announce their results at 2 p.m. ET Monday.
"I always thought Maury Wills changed the game in an era," one NL executive says of another former player under consideration by the Golden Era Committee. "I thought he would be a guy."
The rest of the 10-person ballot: Ken Boyer, Gil Hodges, Bob Howsam, Tony Oliva, Billy Pierce and Luis Tiant.
Election is very, very difficult: A player must be named on 12 of 16 ballots. Last time this committee met, in 2011, Ron Santo was elected. As for the holdovers, Kaat received 10 votes in '11, Hodges and Minoso received nine each and Oliva received eight.
The 16-person committee changes with each election. This year's committee: Hall of Famers Jim Bunning, Rod Carew, Pat Gillick, Ferguson Jenkins, Al Kaline, Joe Morgan, Ozzie Smith and Don Sutton; executives Jim Frey, David Glass, Roland Hemond and Bob Watson; and media members Steve Hirdt, Dick Kaegel, Phil Pepe and Tracy Ringolsby.
Odds are, nobody will be elected. But Kaat, Allen or Wills would not be a great surprise.
It would also not be a surprise if the wheeling and dealing already has started in San Diego by the time the Golden Era Committee makes its announcement Monday afternoon.
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has over two decades of experience covering MLB, including 14 years as a national baseball columnist at CBSSports.com.
Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball @ScottMillerBbl.
