NFL Week 14 Picks: Predictions for Favorites and Underdogs

Week 14 kicked off with a win for the favorite, as the Dallas Cowboys took down the Chicago Bears by a score of 41-28, besting the week's first point spread on Thursday Night Football.

While Dallas trumped the Vegas odds in that matchup, bettors shouldn't expect that trend to continue into Sunday. With the postseason only four weeks away and many teams still in the hunt, most contests should be expected to finish with tight scoring margins due to increased competitiveness in a playoff environment.

Sorting through the week's impending matchups to determine which favorites are poised to win big and which underdogs have the best chance to force an upset can be a daunting task. In an effort to help ease that burden, you'll find a complete list of games, odds and picks against the spread, followed by some in-depth analysis for a couple intriguing games below.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
St. Louis at Washington	STL -3	Rams	There's too much turmoil in Washington to warrant any confidence in the team.
Houston at Jacksonville	HOU -6	Texans	Houton's offense is rolling and will be too much for Jacksonville to handle.
NY Giants at Tennessee	NYG -1	Giants	The Giants will win handily if they can limit their mistakes.
Tampa Bay at Detroit	DET -10	Lions	This will be the biggest blowout of the week.
Carolina at New Orleans	NO -10	Panthers	New Orleans' soft defense will allow the Panthers to keep this game close.
Indianapolis at Cleveland	IND -3.5	Colts	The Browns are dealing with quarterback issues, and the Colts have Andrew Luck. Enough said.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati	CIN -3	Bengals	Cincinnati's defense is playing much better than Pittsburgh's right now.
NY Jets at Minnesota	MIN -5.5	Jets	New York will run a ground-and-pound scheme to keep this close.
Baltimore at Miami	MIA -2.5	Dolphins	See analysis below.
Kansas City at Arizona	KC -1	Chiefs	Arizona continues to fall apart due to injuries on both sides of the ball.
Buffalo at Denver	DEN -10	Bills	Buffalo's defense will keep this game respectable.
San Francisco at Oakland	SF -8	Raiders	This is Oakland's Super Bowl, and the 49ers are struggling.
Seattle at Philadelphia	PHI -1	Seahawks	See analysis below.
New England at San Diego	NE -4	Patriots	There will be way too much Tom Brady for a shaky Chargers secondary.
Atlanta at Green Bay	GB -13	Packers	It will be surprising if Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw five touchdown passes.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of December 5.

Notable Favorite: Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

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The Ravens are traveling to Miami to play in a game that should closely resemble a playoff-like environment on Sunday.

Obviously, home-field advantage will be a major factor in this instance. However, some noteworthy injuries will ultimately be Baltimore's undoing.

Top cornerback Jimmy Smith was already lost for the season, depleting a shaky Ravens secondary. According to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun, the team will now also be without cornerback Tramain Jacobs in Miami due to a thigh injury:

Baltimore is already ranked 31st in the league against the pass and is coming off a game in which it allowed Philip Rivers to pass for 383 yards and three touchdowns. Considering the Dolphins have found success through the air this season, thanks to a resilient Ryan Tannehill and a budding Jarvis Landry, that's not a good sign.

What has kept the Ravens in games this season is their stout run defense. However, that department took a major hit when it was announced defensive lineman Haloti Ngata was suspended for four games due to PED use, according to SportsCenter:

Ngata was one of the league's best run-stuffing defensive ends, ranking 10th overall with a plus-8.9 rating against the run, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Now, Baltimore is tasked with stopping Lamar Miller, who is averaging 4.9 yards per carry this season, without the services of its best lineman.

The Ravens aren't in a good situation on the road this week, and Miami will emerge victorious as a result.

Prediction: Dolphins 27, Ravens 20

Notable Underdog: Seattle Seahawks (+1) at Philadelphia Eagles

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There's plenty at stake in terms of the NFC's playoff race when these two teams clash in Philadelphia on Sunday. The Seahawks are looking to overtake the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West, and the Eagles are attempting to remain well in control of the NFC East.

Philadelphia will prove to be a difficult environment for Seattle, but that won't be much of a problem when taking the Seahawks' brand of football into consideration. This team is built for these tough road contests, ranking first in the league in rushing offense, third in pass defense and fifth in run defense. A ground-and-pound scheme is the perfect way to combat a hostile environment.

By putting the ball on the ground, the Seahawks can sustain long drives, keeping the Eagles' high-powered offense on the sidelines and taking the crowd out of the equation. Philadelphia has improved against the run recently, ranking 11th in the NFL. However, not many teams have been able to account for the dual-threat ability of quarterback Russell Wilson this season.

According to Eagles Insider, head coach Chip Kelly hasn't been able to thoroughly prepare for the quarterback in practice:

If the Seahawks can successfully sustain drives, they'll be able to keep Philadelphia's offense out of sync. When that happens, quarterback Mark Sanchez is susceptible to errant passes and turnovers—not a good thing against a team that has 18 takeaways already this season.

Expect Seattle to control this game on both sides of the ball, as the Eagles offense has difficulty finding its groove against a defense that ranks first in yards allowed and third in points allowed.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, Eagles 23