Interceptions Raising Doubts About Jameis Winston's NFL Potential

Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston is often characterized as an elite prospect with character concerns, a player whose on-field ability could make him one of the top picks in the 2015 NFL draft but whose off-field history could push him down draft boards.

That description, however, might no longer be accurate. As Winston has thrown 17 interceptions in just 11 games this season, it’s possible that concerns about his play might end up hurting the draft prospect more than his checkered past.

There will always be ambiguity in how seriously concerned teams should be about Winston’s non-football issues.

Although Winston has been involved in numerous well-publicized incidents over the past few years, it’s still unknown whether there’s any validity to the most serious allegation against him: an accused sexual assault, stemming from a December 2012 interaction with a woman that Winston said, in a statement provided during a Florida State code of conduct hearing Tuesday that was later acquired by USA Today, was consensual.

From the outside looking in, it’s impossible to judge Winston’s character while being fair and without leaping to assumptions about the validity or non-validity of allegations against him.

What can be clearly evaluated is that Winston is going to have to play much better than he has on the field this year if he is going to achieve success as an NFL quarterback.

Breaking Down Winston’s Rising Interception Total

As a redshirt freshman last season, Winston was the clear-cut best player in college football, and he earned the 2013 Heisman Trophy as a result. This year, despite the facts that Florida State is 12-0 and remains undefeated since Winston has become its starting quarterback, No. 5 hasn’t played well to even deserve an invitation to the Heisman ceremony.

Winston’s completion percentage (65.1 from 66.9), yards per passing attempt (8.3 from 10.6) and passer rating (143.7 from 184.85) are significantly down from last year. Most significantly, Winston has been picked off 17 times in 392 passing attempts, a stark increase from the 10 interceptions he threw in 384 passing attempts last year.

There are factors beyond the quarterback himself that might be contributing to Winston’s decline from a statistical standpoint. The Seminoles have not been able to seamlessly replace some of the players they lost from their 2013 offense, including wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, center Bryan Stork and running back Devonta Freeman.

That said, Winston still has as much NFL talent around him as just about any other quarterback in college football, yet his performance has evidently regressed.

Despite being tied for 31st in passes attempted this year, Winston is one of only six quarterbacks who has thrown 17 or more interceptions. None of the other five—Tulsa’s Dane Evans, New Mexico State’s Tyler Rogers, Georgia State’s Nick Arbuckle, UNLV’s Blake Decker and Idaho’s Matt Linehan—are currently viewed as NFL prospects.

Only two quarterbacks since 2000—Matt Ryan in 2008 and Rex Grossman in 2002—have been selected in the first round of the NFL draft after throwing 17 or more interceptions in their final college football seasons.

Why are such a significantly high percentage of Winston’s passes being picked off by opposing defenses?

In charting all 17 of Winston’s interceptions this year, there are a number of evident patterns. Thirteen of his picks have been thrown in the first half, 13 of them have been made between the numbers and nine of them have occurred within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage.

The first phenomenon is an unusual one that cannot simply be explained by identifying a specific flaw in his game. The second two, however, point to areas in which Winston must become a better decision-maker and coverage-reader to avoid costly turnovers.

Four of Winston’s interceptions this year—including two by Florida’s Brian Poole this past Saturday, and also the two shown below by Oklahoma State linebacker Seth Jacobs and North Carolina State linebacker Jerod Fernandez—have come on throws where Winston stared down a downfield target but never recognized an underneath coverage, allowing that player to read the quarterback’s eyes, step into the passing lane and pick off his throw without any receiver in front of him.

It’s not as though Winston is unable to go through his progression and make multiple reads over the course of a play—he does so regularly—but he must get better at recognizing when there is a defender in the line between his throw point and the intended target.

Most of Winston’s other interceptions have come as a result of making poor decisions under pressure and trying to force passes to receivers against coverage over the middle of the field.

In another example from FSU’s September game against North Carolina State, Winston tried to find Nick O’Leary about 17 yards downfield between the hashes, between a window of three defenders, all the while throwing off his back foot under heavy pressure. Predictably, he paid the price, as his pass was inaccurate and picked off by Fernandez.

The worst interception of all thrown by Winston this year was his pass picked off by Notre Dame linebacker Joe Schmidt in October. Under duress from three Notre Dame pass-rushers inside his own five-yard line, Winston should have just thrown the ball out of bounds but instead threw a desperate heave over the right middle of the field, which allowed Schmidt to play the ball for a takeaway.

Overall, Winston’s interception issues have little to do with passing accuracy and velocity; to the contrary, Winston has gotten away with forced throws on many occasions because of his ability to rifle a throw downfield and hit his target precisely.

That said, Winston won’t get away with forced passes nearly as often at the next level as he goes up against tighter coverage windows and defenders who can make plays on the ball at all levels.

Winston needs to become more consistent with his decision-making and learn when he needs to just check down or throw the ball away rather than attempt a pass downfield against the rush. If he does not do that, his interception totals are likely to only increase in the NFL.

How Much is Winston’s Draft Stock Falling?

According to TFY Draft Insider’s Tony Pauline, NFL scouts and decision-makers are finding “Winston’s penchant for turning the ball over”—the quarterback also has four fumbles this year, although he has only lost one to the other team—”very disconcerting.”

“Off the field transgressions aside, his play on Saturday’s has been exciting but not the caliber of an early first round pick,” Pauline wrote earlier this week.

NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks believes that Winston’s “season-long struggles with turnovers and mechanics” have shown that the quarterback “is a talented but flawed prospect who will need time to develop at the next level.”

“Although he remains the top quarterback prospect in college football with valuable experience running a pro-style system, he is not a plug-and-play prospect who can step in and lead a team from Day 1,” Brooks wrote. “In time, I believe Winston will be a franchise player, but his 2014 struggles suggest a patient approach might be best for the team that selects him if he comes out following his sophomore season.”

A team looking for an immediate upgrade at the quarterback position might have to reconsider whether it should invest a high draft choice in Winston. Yet it remains unclear whether Winston's draft stock has actually fallen significantly in the eyes of NFL teams.

In his Scouting Notebook for this week, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller wrote that he recently spoke to three NFL general managers who said, “their view of Winston has not changed.”

Scouts always want to see progression over the course of a player's collegiate career, not regression, so evaluators should be concerned by the negative turn in his play. But even so, Winston's upside could be tough to pass up for a quarterback-needy team in a draft that appears to have no other first-round-caliber passing prospects besides Oregon's Marcus Mariota.

Why a Team Will Still Take a Chance on Winston Early in the Draft

Although Winston's errors this season have made it clear that his game still needs significant work, there are a number of areas in which he is better than Mariota and any other quarterback eligible for the 2015 draft.

A 6’4”, 230-pound player with a big arm and good mobility, Winston has all the physical tools to potentially be a great pro quarterback.

He clearly needs to be smarter about what passes he attempts, but his ability to connect with targets between tight windows and when he is pressured remains far better than the vast majority of quarterbacks when they come out of college.

While Winston’s mistakes have been a big reason why Florida State has had to come back from second-half deficits in three of its last six games, and has won by only five points or less in four of its last six games, the quarterback has also been integral in the Seminoles' not only winning every game they have played this year, but also all of last year.

For all of his faults, Winston has stepped up time and time again to make clutch plays for his team with the game on the line. He has the so-called “it factor,” an intangible knack for playing up to the situation and being at his best when needed most.

That doesn’t mean his faults should be excused, nor does it mean Winston will be able to commit turnovers against NFL defenses and still be able to bring his team back to win games. Unlike at Florida State, where his team almost always has clearly superior talent to its opponent, the competition will be much steeper and the margin of error will be much slimmer for Winston as a professional.

It does show, however, that Winston is a natural on-field leader who never gives up on a game and keeps his composure when he has to bounce back from turnovers he has made.

Those qualities, along with the physical tools and playmaking ability that keep Winston’s prospect ceiling very high, make it possible that a team looking for a franchise signal-caller—such as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans or New York Jets—could use one of the top overall picks in the draft to select him.

It would be a surprise, at this point, if Winston was selected ahead of Mariota. While Winston has more experience playing under pressure and completing throws with high degrees of difficulty, Mariota has asserted himself as the top draft-eligible quarterback with a stellar season that could also make him this year’s Heisman Trophy winner.

But unless every team agrees that Winston's on-field flaws and off-field red flags make him too risky to draft in early Round 1, it's likely he will come off the board quickly—assuming he declares for the 2015 draft, which CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora has reported he will—after Mariota is selected.

All GIFs were made using Gfycat with videos from DraftBreakdown.com. All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.

Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.

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