Big-Name MLB Prospects Entering Make-or-Break Years with Future at Risk

With the overwhelming failure rate of prospects, teams can only be so patient or forgiving with their young players. However, they tend to be more lenient when that player is a former top draft pick or international signee given the amount of money originally invested as well as the pride at stake.

Heading into the 2015, there are several former top prospects on the verge of falling out of the long-term picture with their respective organizations. And for many of them, the upcoming season may be their final chance to turn the developmental corner and avoid becoming merely a “what could have been” player.

Here’s a look at three once highly-regarded prospects facing a make-or-break season in 2015.

Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Los Angeles Angels

2014 Stats (AA): 487 PA, .223/.295/.324, 28 XBH (6 HR), 54 RBI, 26 SB, 43 BB, 99 K (126 G)

Kaleb Cowart, the Angels’ first-round draft pick in 2011, had an excellent full-season debut in 2012, posting an .810 OPS with 54 extra-base hits, 103 RBI and 14 stolen bases in 135 games between both Class-A levels.

However, the third baseman’s success didn’t translate at Double-A Arkansas the following year, as he posted a disappointing .221/.279/.301 batting line with 27 extra-base hits and 124 strikeouts in 132 games.

Cowart, 22, failed to take any sort of a step forward offensively this past season in his second tour of the Texas League. Granted, he stole a career-high 26 bases and improved both his strikeout (20.3 percent) and walk rates (8.8 percent), but Cowart once again failed to hit for either average or power, batting just .223/.295/.324 in 487 plate appearances. Furthermore, he decided to give up switch-hitting in late July and is now strictly a left-handed hitter, the side of the plate from which he possesses more consistent power.

Personally, I thought Cowart looked better back in 2012 when I saw him for the first time in the Arizona Fall League compared to this year, and the Angels’ decision to leave him unprotected for the upcoming Rule 5 draft speaks to how far his stock has fallen in the past two years.

"We're going to continue to exercise patience in his development," Angels general manager Jerry Dipoto said of Cowart, via Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com.

"At this point, we could not commit a 40-man roster spot and take a chance that we would lose another player that's capable at the Major League level right now, until we know more about where Kaleb is."

Meanwhile, the organization already has discussed moving Cowart to the mound—he pumped mid- to upper-90s fastballs in high school—if he doesn’t get back on track, but for now, the plan is to give him another full season at third base.

“He’s still young, and he can throw, he has power, he’s a very good defensive player and he works his tail off,” Dipoto said, via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. “There are so many reasons to invest your time in Kaleb. To me, it’s just not time to pull the plug on the bat, because if it clicks for him and he gets back to where he was three years ago, then you really have something.”

Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Tampa Bay Rays

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2014 Stats (AAA): 357 PA, .203/.287/.286, 14 XBH (4 HR), 23 RBI, 12 SB, 37 BB, 86 K (93 G)

Hak-Ju Lee appeared to be on the fast track to the major leagues with his hot start (.422/.536/.600) at Triple-A in 2013, but a severe knee injury ultimately ended the shortstop’s promising season after only 15 games.

Assigned back to Triple-A for the 2014 season, Lee was picked apart by International League pitchers and struggled to make quality contact and get on base as he had in the past. Overall, the left-handed hitting shortstop posted a career-worst batting line of .203/.287/.276 to go along with a 24.1 percent strikeout rate in 357 plate appearances.

The Rays recently said they’ll listen to offers for current shortstop Yunel Escobar (per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports), though it isn’t clear where Lee, 24, fits in the organization’s long-term plan at the moment. Remember, the Rays acquired Nick Franklin in the three-team trade for David Price in late July—though he’s better suited for second base—and Ben Zobrist, who is more than capable of holding down the position, will be back in 2015 after having his option picked up.

Lee may never come close to his .277/.353/.371 career batting line or achieve an everyday role in the major leagues, but he still profiles as a glove-first player who could hit .260 and steal some bases in a utility role.

Eddie Rosario, OF/2B, Minnesota Twins

2014 Stats (A+/AA): .243/.286/.387, 31 XBH (8 HR), 40 RBI, 9 SB, 21 BB, 73 K (87 G)

Eddie Rosario’s 2014 campaign began with a 50-game suspension after testing positive for a banned substance for a second time. Then, after working his way back to Double-A New Britain, Rosario once again had his makeup called into question when the 22-year-old was suspended for four games in early August.

Twins Director of Minor League Operations Brad Steil described Rosario's absence as a "team situation" and said that Rosario was not injured, per the (St. Paul) Pioneer Press.

In addition to those issues, the 23-year-old struggled in his return to the Eastern League, batting .237/.277/.396 after slashing .284/.330/.412 there in 2013. Rosario was also transitioned to the outfield last season after being developed as a second baseman, logging 50 games in center field compared to only 18 at the keystone.

Rosario rebounded in this year’s Arizona Fall League to bat .330/.345/.410 with six extra-base hits and 10 stolen bases in 100 at-bats, not including his four-hit performance in the AFL title game.

I have never liked Rosario’s setup and load in his swing; he starts low with his hands and nearly locks out into an arm bar, appearing to fight against his natural momentum while getting through the baseball. It will make him to vulnerable to inner-half velocity as well as quality breaking balls at higher levels, meaning the left-handed hitter will need to make adjustments along the way.

All that said, Rosario makes the swing work thanks to preternatural bat-to-ball skills and a flat barrel path, driving the ball from line to line, and he also picks up his share of infield hits.

Rosario’s average speed and range are best suited for left field—he could handle center field (or second base) in a pinch, but not on an everyday basis—but his lack of power doesn’t profile favorably at the position, which typically is reserved for bat-first players with average power frequency.

Therefore, Rosario’s realistic role in the major leagues is that of a fourth outfielder, though he could also become a quality utility player if the Twins continue to give him occasional time at second base.