NFL Week 13 Picks: Predictions for Favorites and Underdogs

So much for those close Thanksgiving Day contests we were expecting. With three games featuring six playoff hopefuls, it's hard to believe not a single contest finished with a winning margin of fewer than 16 points. That just goes to show the unpredictable nature of the NFL.

If you were riding the favorites in those games, congratulations. You're ahead of the curve. If you were betting on the underdogs, well, we have some work to do. Luckily, there are another 13 games taking place this week to help you continue your winning streak or, at the very least, get back in the green.

Before Sunday's action kicks off, let's take a look at the updated Week 13 game lines and pick a winner against the spread for each remaining contest.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Cleveland at Buffalo	BUF -3	Bills	Brian Hoyer is having accuracy issues, and that's a bad omen against a good Bills defense.
New Orleans at Pittsburgh	PIT -5	Steelers	Drew Brees can't win at home, and he plays worse on the road. Looks good for the Steelers at home.
San Diego at Baltimore	BAL -7	Ravens	See analysis below.
Carolina at Minnesota	MIN -3	Vikings	It's just too difficult to trust an inconsistent Cam Newton right now, especially on the road.
NY Giants at Jacksonville	NYG -3	Giants	Neither defense is good, but the Jaguars don't have the offense to keep up with Eli Manning and Co.
Washington at Indianapolis	IND -10.5	Colts	Can Colt McCoy keep his team within 11 points of Andrew Luck and the Colts? Probably not.
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay	CIN -3.5	Bengals	The Bengals will easily control this game with Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill.
Tennessee at Houston	HOU -7	Titans	Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn't playing well earlier in the year, and Zach Mettenberger is improving.
Oakland at St. Louis	STL -7	Raiders	See analysis below.
Arizona at Atlanta	Even	Cardinals	Atlanta's defense hasn't been good since Week 3, and now it faces a stout Cardinals defense.
New England at Green Bay	GB -3	Packers	It's difficult to pick against Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, even against Tom Brady.
Denver at Kansas City	Even	Broncos	Kansas City had trouble stopping the Raiders. Now it faces Peyton Manning and the Broncos.
Miami at NY Jets	MIA -7	Dolphins	Ryan Tannehill is playing great lately, and a matchup against a bad Jets defense is very favorable.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 28.

Notable Favorite: San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

Luckily for the Chargers, Weather.com anticipates 57-degree temperatures in Baltimore on Sunday. While that's a good sign for a warm-weather team, the fact of the matter is San Diego will still need to run the football to have any kind of success against the Ravens.

After all, according to Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com, West Coast teams don't exactly fare well in Baltimore:

Ryan Mathews is coming off a very solid performance, carrying 12 times for 105 yards and a touchdown. However, it's very difficult to imagine the Ravens' sixth-ranked run defense—which is allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, according to TeamRankings.com—giving up those kinds of numbers.

That puts a heavy burden on quarterback Philip Rivers, who will be running a one-dimensional offense. That's not a good sign for San Diego, as Rivers hasn't been nearly as good on the road this season. Take a look at his splits in 2014:

Split	CMP%	AVG	TD	INT	RAT
Home	71.1	8.03	13	3	109.9
Away	64.8	7.53	9	6	90.6

Baltimore's biggest weakness is its secondary. The Ravens are ranked 29th in the league against the pass heading into Sunday, but limiting San Diego's success on the ground will help Baltimore combat Rivers and Co. through the air.

Meanwhile, expect running back Justin Forsett to continue keeping up his gaudy average of 5.8 yards per rush against a Chargers run defense that ranks 15th in the league. This will keep Rivers off the field and make it far more difficult for the veteran quarterback to establish a rhythm in a hostile environment.

Prediction: Ravens 27, Chargers 17

Notable Underdog: Oakland Raiders (+7) at St. Louis Rams

The Raiders are still riding a great wave of momentum following their first win of the season against the Kansas City Chiefs. However, that's not the biggest reason why Oakland will succeed at keeping up with the Rams on Sunday.

Interestingly enough, the key to Oakland's success in Week 13 will be its running game.

Latavius Murray broke out against the Chiefs, rushing for 112 yards and two scores—including a 90-yard scamper—on just four carries before a concussion took him out of the game. Unfortunately, according to John Middlekauff, he's unlikely to play Sunday:

That's not a good omen. However, there was one unsung hero from that Week 12 game: Marcel Reece. He earned a season-high eight carries and took advantage, rushing for 37 yards. Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus also tweeted Reece's increased snap count:

With Murray out and the rest of the backfield continuing to deliver unimpressive showings, Reece could be in line for a larger workload.

That's a big advantage for Oakland. After all, the Raiders haven't had any kind of a balanced offense this season, and that's been one of the challenges for rookie quarterback Derek Carr. If the Rams sell out against the run, Carr is more than capable of beating their 21st-ranked pass defense.

The Rams don't have the kind of offense that can really blow the doors off a game, especially against a Raiders pass defense that ranks 11th in the league. If St. Louis can't put up big numbers, a balanced Raiders offense will stick around for the full 60 minutes, keeping the game within a seven-point margin.

Prediction: Rams 23, Raiders 20