Projecting the Biggest Superstar Snubs of the 2015 Baseball HOF Vote
The 2015 MLB Hall of Fame ballot is set to officially be released Monday, and with it comes the start of this year's debate over who deserves to be immortalized in Cooperstown.
Among the newcomers to the ballot are a trio of pitchers who were among the best of their generation in Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz.
The first-timers will join 17 holdovers from last year's ballot, led by Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines, who all received at least 45 percent of the vote last year.
Rather than predicting who will be enshrined and laying out who the deserving candidates are, the following will take a crack at predicting which superstars will be snubbed.
For the sake of argument, two different levels of snub will be considered.
- Snubbed off the Ballot: These are first-time guys who have the body of work to at least stick around on the ballot for a few years and have their case debated but will receive less than the necessary 5 percent of the vote and be eliminated from further consideration.
- Snubbed from Induction: These are the guys who are genuinely worthy of induction but will fall short of the necessary 75 percent of the vote to officially earn their way into Cooperstown.
So, with that in mind, here is my best guess for the biggest superstar snubs in the 2015 MLB Hall of Fame vote.
Snubbed off the Ballot (Less Than 5 Percent): Carlos Delgado
1 of 7
2,035 G, .280/.383/.546, 2,038 H, 483 2B, 473 HR, 1,512 RBI, 1,241 R, 44.3 WAR
Accolades
2-time All-Star
3-time Silver Slugger
2000 Hank Aaron Award winner
Career Overview
Carlos Delgado was one of the most feared power hitters of his era, but he was also a terrific all-around offensive player and a model of consistency during his time with the Toronto Blue Jays. In his 13 full big league seasons, he topped the 30-home run mark an impressive 11 times, including 10 straight years from 1997 to 2006. He also had nine 100-RBI seasons, including six straight.
The Puerto Rico native finished fourth in AL MVP voting in 2000 (.344/.470/.664, 57 2B, 41 HR, 137 RBI) and second in 2003 (.302/.426/.593, 38 2B, 42 HR, 145 RBI), and he logged two other top-10 finishes.
As for where he ranks among the greatest of all time, his .929 OPS is good for 37th, one slot ahead of Hank Aaron. He is also 31st on the home run list and 52nd on the RBI list, so the counting numbers are there to at least make a case for his induction.
All of that being said, Delgado is one of those guys who was never really considered one of the elite players of his generation, and that may be the biggest knock against him.
He was never tied to steroid use, but his production is diminished by the steroid era itself. With a relatively full ballot, there is a good chance he's a one-and-done guy, and he at least deserved to hang around in the discussion for a few seasons.
Snubbed off the Ballot (Less Than 5 Percent): Nomar Garciaparra
2 of 7
1,434 G, .313/.361/.521, 1,747 H, 370 2B, 229 HR, 936 RBI, 927 R, 44.2 WAR
Accolades
6-time All-Star
1-time Silver Slugger
2-time AL Batting Champion
1997 AL Rookie of the Year
2006 NL Comeback Player of the Year
Career Overview
For Nomar Garciaparra, injuries curtailed a career that certainly looked to have Hall of Fame potential in its early stages. There is no doubt he was one of the best around when healthy, and he took the league by storm as a rookie back in 1997.
The 23-year-old hit .306/.342/.524 with 30 home runs and 98 RBI while leading the AL in hits (209) and triples (11) to claim AL Rookie of the Year honors unanimously. He also authored a rookie-record 30-game hitting streak that season.
From there, Garciaparra quickly emerged as one of the best in the game, hitting .350/.404/.595 and averaging 28 home runs and 107 RBI over the next three seasons.
His .372 average in 2000 is the sixth-best single season mark ever by a shortstop and the highest since Luke Appling hit .388 in 1936, according to Baseball-Reference (subscription required).
However, a wrist injury in 2001 limited him just 21 games, and while he returned for two more strong seasons, he was never the same. He averaged just 84 games per season over the final six years of his career, and his counting numbers took a big hit as a result. That will likely be enough to keep him off the ballot in 2016, which is a shame given just how good he was when he was at his best.
Snubbed off the Ballot (Less Than 5 Percent): Gary Sheffield
3 of 7
2,576 G, .292/.393/.514, 467 2B, 509 HR, 1,676 RBI, 1,636 R, 60.2 WAR
Accolades
9-time All-Star
5-time Silver Slugger
1-time NL Batting Champion
Career Overview
These days, any prospect coming up through the minor leagues with elite-level bat speed finds his name being thrown around alongside that of Gary Sheffield. With his signature bat waggle and ferocious swing, Sheffield tore through major league pitching for 22 seasons, despite lacking the prototypical power hitter frame at 5'11" and 190 pounds.
After breaking into the league as a 19-year-old shortstop with the Milwaukee Brewers, Sheffield shifted to third base for four seasons before eventually landing in the outfield, where he had an absolute cannon for an arm in his prime.
His breakout season at the plate came in 1992, when he won the NL batting title with a .330 average and also had 33 home runs and 100 RBI to finish third in MVP voting.
He would go on to record eight seasons with 30-plus home runs as well as eight with 100-plus RBI, and he ranks 25th and 26th, respectively, on those all-time lists.
All of that production goes out the window, though, as Sheffield is an admitted steroid user with ties to Barry Bonds and the whole BALCO scandal. Without the overall eye-popping numbers of guys like Bonds and even Mark McGwire, chances are he won't stick around long on the ballot.
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Snubbed from Induction (Less Than 75 Percent): Jeff Bagwell
4 of 7
2,150 G, .297/.408/.540, 2,314 H, 488 2B, 449 HR, 1,529 RBI, 1,517 R, 79.6 WAR
Accolades
4-time All-Star
3-time Silver Slugger
1-time Gold Glove
1991 NL Rookie of the Year
1994 NL MVP
Career Overview
Entering his fifth year on the ballot, Jeff Bagwell actually saw his Hall of Fame support dip slightly from 2013 (59.6 percent) to 2014 (54.3 percent), and there is a good chance he hovers in the 50-60 percent range once again this year.
Being on the same ballot as Frank Thomas last season certainly didn't help his candidacy, though it's worth nothing that Bagwell actually has the higher career WAR of the two (79.6 to 73.7).
It might take him a few more years, but given his overall body of work, one has to think Bagwell will earn induction at some point before his time on the ballot is up.
He ranks in the top 50 all time in home runs (449, 38th) and RBI (1,529, 49th), but it is his .948 OPS that is perhaps his most impressive stat of all. That is good for 21st, and it puts him ahead of guys like Mel Ott (.947), Willie Mays (.941), Frank Robinson (.926), Mike Schmidt (.908) and many more all-time greats.
We'll say he bounces back to around 60 percent of the vote, setting him up for enshrinement in 2016, as the crop of first-timers that year is thin behind shoo-in Ken Griffey Jr.
Snubbed from Induction (Less Than 75 Percent): Tim Raines
5 of 7
2,502 G, .294/.385/.425, 2,605 H, 430 2B, 170 HR, 980 RBI, 1,571 R, 808 SB, 69.1 WAR
Accolades
7-time All-Star
1-time Silver Slugger
1-time NL Batting Champion
Career Overview
After receiving just 24.3 percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot back in 2008, support for Tim Raines has steadily climbed each season, to an all-time high of 52.2 percent in 2013. That total dipped back to 46.1 percent last year, but that was likely the result of a loaded ballot.
While Raines lacks the traditional counting numbers generally associated with Hall of Fame worthiness, his standing as one of the greatest leadoff hitters of all time makes his case a compelling one.
His .385 on-base percentage and 808 stolen bases, which are good for fifth all time, show what a difference-making table-setter he was for the Montreal Expos during the prime of his career.
Mike Axisa of CBS Sports further backed the idea that he was an elite leadoff man.
"Raines is also one of the game's greatest leadoff hitters ever," he wrote. "Among players with at least 5,000 career plate appearances from the top spot in the lineup, he ranks 12th in batting average (.294), eighth in on-base percentage (.385), ninth in slugging percentage (.427) and fourth in OPS (.813)."
After relying heavily on his speed and winning four straight stolen base titles to begin his career, Raines turned himself into a terrific all-around hitter, even winning the NL batting title in 1986 with a .334 average.
Lou Brock is probably the best comparison for Raines among current Hall of Famers, and while Brock has the 3,000 hits and 938 steals, Raines has him bested in a number of others areas. That includes all three triple-slash categories, as well as WAR, where Raines holds a significant 69.1 to 45.2 edge.
He should get there eventually, but it's hard to see Raines receiving a 30 percent spike in support on what is another deep ballot.
Snubbed from Induction (Less Than 75 Percent): Mike Piazza
6 of 7
1,912 G, .308/.377/.545, 2,127 H, 344 2B, 427 HR, 1,335 RBI, 1,048 R, 59.4 WAR
Accolades
12-time All-Star
10-time Silver Slugger
1993 NL Rookie of the Year
Career Overview
Arguably the greatest offensive catcher in the history of the game, Mike Piazza saw his support for induction increase slightly from 2013 (57.8 percent) to 2014 (62.2 percent), and that trend may very well continue in his third year on the ballot.
A 62nd-round pick in 1988, Piazza exploded onto the scene in 1992, hitting .318/.370/.561 with 35 home runs and 112 RBI to win NL Rookie of the Year honors and finish ninth in MVP voting.
He would go on to hit over .300 an impressive nine times in his career while also topping 30 home runs nine times and tallying six 100-RBI seasons. His 10 Silver Sluggers are the most by a catcher since the award's inception in 1980.
All of that points to a worthy Hall of Famer, but as we saw with Craig Biggio last year, the climb to 75 percent can be a slow one. He'll get there eventually, but it may still be a year or two before Piazza finally gets the necessary votes.
Unsubstantiated questions about potential performance-enhancing drug use, as well as his reputation as a below-average defensive catcher, are likely what has kept Piazza from being inducted to this point. It's his standing as one of the greatest hitting backstops ever that will eventually make him a Hall of Famer, though.
Snubbed from Induction (Less Than 75 Percent): John Smoltz
7 of 7
723 G, 481 GS, 213-155, 154 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 3,084 K, 3,473 IP, 66.5 WAR
Accolades
8-time All-Star
1996 NL Cy Young
2002 NL Rolaids Relief Man
Career Overview
It's tough to compare John Smoltz to any other pitcher in baseball history. Only one other pitcher in baseball history has 150 wins and 150 saves in his career, and that was Dennis Eckersley, who is regarded as a far better closer than he was a starter.
Smoltz was great in both roles, but the four seasons he spent in the bullpen keep his overall numbers from stacking up favorably to the rest of the Hall of Fame starters.
At the end of the day, it should simply be enough to say that Smoltz was one of the best pitchers the game has ever seen. Heck, his postseason track record alone (15-4, 4 SV, 2.67 ERA) is a huge chip in his favor.
In fact, Smoltz earned the No. 41 spot on a list of the 100 greatest pitchers of all time I put together back in 2012, ahead of a number of Hall of Famers.
However, with Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez both first-ballot locks and Craig Biggio likely to finally get over the hump in 2015, Smoltz may very well wind up falling just short in his first go-around.
"He does not boast the runaway Hall of Fame career numbers, but he should be in serious consideration in what should be a star-studded class of pitchers," Zach Dillard of Fox Sports wrote.
If he does wind up being snubbed in 2015, as we are predicting here, expect that slight to be quickly rectified in 2016 as he joins teammates Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine in Cooperstown.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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