NFL Week 12 Picks: Over/Under Predictions for Sunday's Slate

Some bettors prefer to place over/under wagers rather than go against the point spread. That can be an excellent strategy in certain instances, Week 12 of the NFL season being one of them.

With many matchups likely to have severe postseason implications for each team involved, many squads will be entering these impending games with a playoff mentality. The end result could be significantly closer contests than we previously anticipated.

On the other hand, winning margins don't matter when it comes to over/under picks—all that counts is the combined final score. There are several games this week that can be pinpointed as offensively or defensively oriented, making them likely to yield some cash courtesy of Las Vegas.

Matchup	Over/Under	Pick	Reason
Cleveland at Atlanta	47.5	Over	The return of Josh Gordon will turn this game into a shootout.
Tennessee at Philadelphia	48.5	Under	Turnovers by both teams will hold this contest under.
Detroit at New England	48	Under	See analysis below.
Cincinnati at Houston	43.5	Over	Both of these teams can score and get scored on.
Green Bay at Minnesota	48.5	Under	Green Bay won't put up 50 on the road. Minnesota's offense is struggling.
Tampa Bay at Chicago	46	Over	Two terrible secondaries and many big receivers will make this an aerial shootout.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	50.5	Under	Jacksonville won't put up enough points to get this contest over 50.
Arizona at Seattle	41	Over	See analysis below.
St. Louis at San Diego	43.5	Under	St. Louis will control the clock, and San Diego hasn't been explosive for weeks.
Washington at San Francisco	44	Under	Neither of these offenses has been putting up any kind of points lately.
Miami at Denver	47.5	Over	A big bounce-back performance by Peyton Manning will lead to plenty of points here.
Dallas at NY Giants	47.5	Over	Dallas has a prolific offense and Eli Manning threw three scoring passes the last time they faced off.

All odds via Odds Shark and current as of November 22.

Over/Under Analysis

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (O/U: 48)

Taking the under in this game could seem ludicrous at face value. After all, this is the same Patriots team that has put up at least 42 points in each of its last three contests. However, looking deeper at the matchups, there's a very good chance this contest will be lower scoring than you may think.

New England hasn't exactly faced a formidable defense recently. In fact, in those three aforementioned high-scoring games by the Patriots, opposing defenses ranked 32nd, 16th and 22nd in the league, respectively, in points allowed. Needless to say, we may see a different story this week against Detroit's top-ranked unit.

In two other games this year, New England faced top-five scoring defenses. The Patriots scored 14 and 20 points, respectively, in those contests. One big reason for struggles in those games was pressure on Tom Brady. That issue could rear its ugly head once again in Week 12, as Detroit has accumulated 26 sacks so far this season.

Making matters worse for New England's offense, its backfield could be in flux due to an incident involving running back Jonas Gray, via NFL on CBS:

On the other hand, the Lions have found it difficult to get any kind of significant points on the board in recent games. Detroit has eclipsed 24 points just once this season, despite facing several porous defenses along the way. New England doesn't fall into that category, allowing 21.8 points per game and ranking 13th in the league.

Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson couldn't get on the same page in Week 11 against the Arizona Cardinals. The end result was a mere six points scored by the Lions. Expect the duo to find it difficult to hook up once again this week with the resurgent Darrelle Revis draped all over the receiver.

Pick: Under

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 41)

The Cardinals and Seahawks are two defensive-minded teams. Why on earth would anyone want to pick the over? Well, there are several reasons.

One big factor to take into consideration here is Seattle's track record at home this season. This team has always been tough to play at CenturyLink Field, and while the Seahawks do hold a 4-1 record on their home turf, those games have been higher scoring than you may think.

In five contests in Seattle this season, the combined final score has eclipsed the 41-point mark every time. Let's go ahead and consider that a trend. After all, it's not as though the Seahawks played offensive juggernauts in each of those contests. One game was against the Oakland Raiders, and another was against the New York Giants.

Perhaps this interesting wrinkle will help catapult this game's score over 41, via NFL on CBS:

Arizona has been better at keeping the score low this season; however, the Cardinals have yet to face a quarterback as willing to run as Russell Wilson is. Earlier this season, Colin Kaepernick rushed 12 times against this team and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. Although, he's averaging 4.9 yards per carry this season, whereas Wilson is ripping off 7.7 yards per rush.

If Wilson can get it going on the ground, the Seahawks will force the Cardinals defense to contend with an offense that isn't one-dimensional. While neither of these teams will put up gaudy numbers, expect both to eclipse 20 points, sending this one over.

Pick: Over