Alfred Blue Primed for Big Week 12 Showing with Arian Foster's Status in Doubt

The Houston Texans renewed their playoff hopes last week with a convincing 23-7 win over the Cleveland Browns, improving to 5-5 behind an impressive starting debut from quarterback Ryan Mallett and a record-breaking rushing performance by backup Alfred Blue.

Arian Foster (groin) is questionable this week against the Cincinnati Bengals, and ESPN’s Tania Ganguli wrote the chance of him playing is “very, very low,” meaning Blue—a sixth-round rookie from LSU—will likely make his third career (and second consecutive) start.

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If that happens, Blue is primed for another big performance against the Bengals’ 28th-ranked rushing defense, on the heels of breaking the Texans’ single-game record for rushing attempts (36) en route to 156 yards on the ground.

The Texans are no stranger to hosting the Bengals in games with playoff implications, having notched both postseason wins in franchise history at home over Cincinnati with Wild Card Game victories following the 2011 and 2012 seasons, the latter of which extended their head-to-head winning streak to five straight.

Even with a quarterback change, the Texans' offensive blueprint remained the same. They are committed to the run, and their 54 rushing attempts last week marked the most by any team in the NFL this season. Blue showed he can handle a high volume of touches—his 36 carries were the most in a single game since Denver’s Knowshon Moreno had 37 in Week 12 of the 2013 season (New England’s Jonas Gray had 37 rushing attempts last week on Sunday Night Football).

Pro Football Focus noted 88 of Blue’s 156 rushing yards last week came after first contact. PFF’s Sam Monson credited Blue as “the fulcrum about which the Houston offense pivoted in this game.”

What was most impressive to me about his performance last week was the patience shown by the rookie running back. Dale Robertson of the Houston Chronicle wrote Blue took advice from Foster in that regard: "I took advice from Arian about staying patient and knowing what the O-line is doing: 'Don't force it. It's going to come,'" Blue said.

His average of 4.3 yards per carry against Cleveland was not inflated by one long run—his only run of at least 15 yards went for 21 yards late in the fourth quarter.

The Texans’ game plan will not change this week against the Bengals, who are coming off a win at New Orleans and allowed a season-low 2.9 yards per rush on 26 attempts in the upset. Prior to that, the Bengals had allowed at least 100 yards on the ground in seven straight games, their longest single-season streak since 1998.

Texans Rush Offense vs. Bengals Rush Defense

	Texans			Bengals
	Off.	Rank		Def.	Rank
Rush Yards per Game	144.6	3		136.2	28
Rush Attempts per Game	33.5	1		31.0	4
Average Gain per Carry	4.3	10		4.4	8
Rushing Touchdowns	8	T-9		12	T-4
Rushing Plays of 10+ Yards	35	T-6		34	T-10

The Texans' offensive identity is their running game, while the Bengals struggle defensively to stop the run. While the Houston offense ranks in the top third in the NFL in rushing attempts, yards, yards per carry, touchdowns and rushes of at least 10 yards, the Bengals defense ranks in the bottom third of those categories. It is a favorable matchup for the strength of the Texans offense—even if Foster is unable to play and Blue handles a heavy workload.

In two games without Foster this season, Blue has averaged 4.8 yards per carry—rushing 49 times for 234 yards. He will be looking to record his first career rushing touchdown as a safe bet for at least 20 touches again this week.

Even if the Texans deem Foster is able to play, it would still be smart to sit him for one more week rather than risk aggravation of the groin injury. Blue can shoulder the load against the Bengals and has already proved worthy of more snaps in an effort to keep Foster healthy going forward.

Alfred Blue Week 12 Projection: 21 rushes, 92 yards, 1 TD; 2 receptions, 17 yards