Japanese Star Kenta Maeda Proving He's Ready for MLB Challenge

If you looked at some general managers’ calendars for November, there’s a good chance you’d find Wednesday the 12th circled.

That was the day Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda two-hit a loaded Major League Baseball All-Stars lineup over five innings in Game 1 of the Japan All-Star Series, offering a preview of what should be expected in 2015 should he be posted this offseason.

Whether the 26-year-old right-hander pursues a career in MLB is beyond his control, though, as only his Nippon Professional Baseball team, the Hiroshima Carp, can authorize his posting. As of now, the team hasn’t made any decisions pertaining to Maeda’s future.

Regardless, Maeda’s strong showing against big league hitters last week reinforced his reputation as a pitcher ready to make the jump to the major leagues, and it almost goes without saying he improved his potential free-agent stock.

The two hits Maeda allowed in the outing came in the first and fifth innings, and both were on fastballs to left-handed batters that weren’t as far inside as they should’ve been. In the first inning, Robinson Cano stayed inside a 2-2 fastball and drove it through the left side of the infield for a single; in the fifth, Dexter Fowler turned on a 1-2 fastball and lined it to right field for a double.

In general, the only pitches hit hard against Maeda were fastballs that caught too much plate, such as Salvador Perez’s lineout to right field in the second and Evan Longoria’s groundout to third base in the fourth. He also got away with several grooved heaters over the course of the game, especially in the fourth inning when he induced flyouts off the bats of Justin Morneau and Carlos Santana.

Other than that, Maeda’s command of his fastball was impressive, as he demonstrated an advanced feel for attacking hitters to both sides of the plate and largely avoided lingering at the top of the zone.

With a fastball that ranges from 89-94 mph, Maeda doesn’t have the velocity to blow away hitters within the strike zone. That was clear in his performance against the MLB All-Stars, as he failed to induce a single whiff with his heater.

Maeda’s relative lack of velocity also means he doesn’t have the margin of error to employ a fastball-heavy approach, which is why (by my count) he threw it with 29 of his 71 pitches (40.8 percent) in the outing. It’s also why his ability to expand the zone horizontally with his fastball is so vital to his overall effectiveness, as it in turn sets up the rest of his arsenal.

Maeda’s slider serves as his go-to secondary offering, and he showed against the MLB All-Star squad that he’s comfortable throwing it for a strike in any count.

"What's good about him is, like other excellent Japanese pitchers, he has such a great command on his fastball and slider," Samurai Japan manager Hiroki Kokubo said, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. "Those are the great weapons on his repertoire."

However, there was a noticeable difference in his approach with the pitch against right- and left-handed hitters.

Maeda would look to establish the outer half with his fastball early versus righties, then use his slider to expand the hitters’ zone in that direction with the goal of generating either a whiff or weak contact. Overall, he induced whiffs with four of the 16 sliders thrown in the outing, with right-handed hitters accounting for three of them.

Meanwhile, Maeda showed an impressive feel for throwing backdoor strikes to lefties with his slider, even starting three at-bats with the pitch, and he also did a nice job keeping his misses out of the hitting zone.

My issue with Maeda’s slider is that it lacks wipeout break; he’s capable of throwing ones with tight rotation and late break, but too many seem to roll out of his hand and flatten out in the zone.

The same goes for Maeda’s curveball.

Thrown in the low- to mid-70s with huge, 12-to-6 vertical break, Maeda’s curveball should generate more swings-and-misses than the three he notched against the MLB All-Stars last week. However, his below-average command of the pitch limits its effectiveness, as Maeda has a tendency to spike the pitch or hang it above the belt.

On the other hand, Maeda’s changeup proved to be a weapon against the MLB All-Stars, producing both of his strikeouts—he generated five whiffs on 12 changeups in the game—as well as three ground-ball outs. It’s worth noting that his only strikeout victims were right-handed batters Alcides Escobar and Yasiel Puig, each of whom swung at fading changeups that simply dropped off the table as they neared the plate.

But while Maeda’s secondary arsenal in the game may have left something to be desired, his ability to effectively change speeds and keep big league hitters off-balance did not. Specifically, Maeda’s fastball command to both sides of the plate from the onset of the game allowed him to mix in his full secondary arsenal, as he tested opposing hitters’ discipline while also feeling out their approaches.

"He can pitch in the big leagues," Rockies first baseman Justin Morneau said, via DiComo, offering the typical raves about Maeda's command. "I'm sure we'll see him over there. He's got good stuff."

Overall, Maeda proved he could excel against some of the best hitters on the planet without overpowering stuff or, for that matter, a put-away pitch. Unfortunately, that’s also why the right-hander doesn’t project as anything more than a No. 3 starter in the major leagues.

That being said, a 26-year-old with three average-or-better pitches and a No. 3-starter floor is incredibly valuable in today’s game, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that a wide range of teams are expected to target him should he become available.

A club hoping to land Maeda can make a run at him by submitting a bid no larger than $20 million, a rule established last offseason that facilitated the sweepstakes for Masahiro Tanaka, with negotiating rights going to the high bidder.

So far, teams believed to be interested in Maeda include the Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Phillies and Astros (clicking the links will take you to the specific rumors). But after watching him throw five shutout innings against some of MLB’s premier hitters in the Japan All-Star Series, it’s a safe bet that more teams will be entering the mix.