Complete 2014 Arizona Fall League Update with Breakout Stars, Disappointments

The 2014 Arizona Fall League is set to end this weekend, with the championship game to be played Saturday at 3:08 p.m. ET, airing on MLB Network/MLB.com.

The game will feature the Salt River Rafters, who clinched the East Division Monday behind a league-best 17-9 overall record, taking on the winner of the West Division, which is still up for grabs.

Entering Wednesday, the Peoria Javelinas (14-13-3) and Surprise Saguaros (15-14-1) are tied for first place, while the Glendale Desert Dogs (13-15-1) are just one-and-a-half games back.

However, excitement surrounding the AFL has little to do with the teams or championship game; it’s more about gauging the developmental processes of many of baseball’s top prospects and getting a feel for where players are at heading into the offseason.

Therefore, we thought this would be a perfect time to reflect on some of the top performers in this year’s league, both hitters and pitchers, and after spending a week in the desert taking in games, we have plenty of insight (and video) to share.

Here is a complete update on the 2014 Arizona Fall League.

Top Hitters

Top 10 AFL Hitters (with at least 70 plate appearances, ranked by wOBA, per FanGraphs)

1. Jesse Winker, LF, Cincinnati Reds [Scouting Video]

84 PA, 8 XBH, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 16.7 BB%, 20.2 K%, .338 AVG, .999 OPS, .452 wOBA

Winker can flat-out rake, so it’s really not surprising he’s currently second in the AFL with a .338 batting average. Meanwhile, the power to all fields he’s shown this fall is encouraging after a wrist injury ended his 2014 season.

2. Peter O’Brien, C/1B/DH, Arizona Diamondbacks [Scouting Video]

94 PA, XBH, HR, RBI, 17.0% BB%, 21.3% K%, .276 AVG, .968 OPS, .438 wOBA

O’Brien’s approach and pitch selection this fall was considerably better compared to when I saw him in last year’s AFL. He showed the ability to shorten up his swing a bit when down in the count and use the entire field.

3. Greg Bird, 1B, New York Yankees [Scouting Video]

106 PA, 11 XBH, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 10.4% BB%, 20.8% K%, .315 AVG, .952 OPS, .428 wOBA

The home run Bird hit in the Fall Stars Game was stunning, possibly the longest dinger I saw this year, and it isn’t hard to see why he currently leads the league with six home runs. That being said, he didn’t showcase much power in the other games I saw, but the approach was advanced and allowed him to see lots of pitches, though I wonder if he’s almost being too passive at times.

4. Boog Powell, CF, Oakland Athletics [Scouting Video]

74 PA, 5 XBH, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 14.9% BB%, 12.2% K%, .323 AVG, .892 OPS, .428 wOBA

Boog has the profile of a top-of-the-order player, with good contact skills, a discerning eye at the plate and ability to hold down center field. He won’t be an impact player, but Powell could carve out a role similar to Sam Fuld’s, which in the major leagues is incredibly valuable.

5. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees

93 PA, 7 XBH, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 14.0% BB%, 19.4% K%, .286 AVG, .878 OPS, .407 wOBA

See third slide.

6. Steven Moya, OF/DH, Detroit Tigers [Scouting Video]

90 PA, 12 XBH, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 6.7% BB%, 30.0% K%, .293 AVG, .907 OPS, .400 wOBA

Moya had a big 2014 season, highlighted by a call-up to the major leagues in September, and the 6’6” left-handed hitter has even bigger power. However, the 23-year-old’s feast-or-famine approach limits his ability to make consistent contact, as it often seems as though he’s merely swinging at the pitcher’s arm speed.

7. Hunter Renfroe, RF, San Diego Padres

100 PA, 14 XBH, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 8.0% BB%, 21.0% K%, .270 AVG, .891 OPS, .398 wOBA

See third slide.

8. Darnell Sweeney, CF/2B, Los Angeles Dodgers

75 PA, 6 XBH, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 10.7% BB%, 20.0% K%, .318 AVG, .839 OPS, .395 wOBA

Sweeney is following up his breakout performance in Double-A with a strong showing in the AFL, all the while learning a new position: center field. The athletic switch-hitter also has some thump in his bat, while his speed on both sides of the ball could make him a valuable role player for the Dodgers in the future.

9. Tyler Austin, OF, New York Yankees [Scouting Video]

79 PA, 5 XBH, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 12.7% BB%, 15.2% K%, .304 AVG, .842 OPS, .394 wOBA

Austin resuscitated his prospect stock at Double-A Trenton during the final months of the regular season, and he’s backing it up this fall in the AFL. The 23-year-old doesn’t have much lift to his swing, but he’s still very strong through the zone and the ball jumps off his bat.

10. Scott Schebler, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers [Scouting Video]

79 PA, 7 XBH, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 5.1% BB%, 25.3% K%, .301 AVG, .849 OPS, .384, wOBA

Schebler, 24, solidified himself as a legitimate prospect this year by posting a .921 OPS with 65 extra-base hits at Double-A Chattanooga. Though I worry about his aggressive approach and willingness to expand the zone, Schebler is also a pretty good bad-ball hitter and knows how to apply his power to all fields within games.

Top Pitchers

Top Starting Pitchers (with at least four starts and 12 innings pitched, sorted by ERA, per MLB.com)

1. Joely Rodriguez, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

6 GS, 19 IP, 0.95 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 5 BB, 19 K

Don’t know much about the soon-to-be 23-year-old left-hander other than his strikeout-to-walk ratio this fall don’t reflect those he’s posted in previous minor league seasons.

2. Wei-Chung Wang, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers

5 GS, 18 IP, 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2 BB, 9 K

The 2013 Rule 5 draft pick made the jump from the rookie-level Gulf Coast League to The Show this year, pitching every Wednesday out of the Brewers’ bullpen before landing on the disabled list in July with a shoulder injury. (If you ask me, it was a phantom disabled list stint to avoid overexposing him and potentially sending him back to the Pirates.)

3. Zach Davies, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

7 GS, 25.2 IP, 1.75 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10 BB, 23 K

Davies was one of the few pitchers I really wanted to see out in Arizona, but that never happened. However, the buzz among scouts regarding the right-hander was overwhelmingly positive, with one evaluator even asserting that Davies could serve as a swingman for the O’s at some point next season.

4. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals [Scouting Video]

6 GS, 24.1 IP, 2.22 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 10 BB, 18 K

Jenkins was the reason I didn’t see Davis, and it was worth it. After logging only 141.2 innings between 2012 and 2013 due to shoulder injuries, Jenkins turned in a 3.28 ERA in 74 innings this season at High-A Palm Beach. However, the 22-year-old right-hander’s strikeout numbers fell dramatically, as he fanned only five batters for every nine innings pitched.

After taking in his Nov. 4 outing, you can see why; Jenkins’ fastball is still crisp with late life, at 92-95 mph, but his secondary pitches lag well behind. Specifically, Jenkins struggles to throw his breaking ball and changeup for strikes, and he doesn’t have the necessary feel for either pitch to consistently induce whiffs off the plate. Therefore, he has no choice but to primarily throw fastballs. Luckily, he spots it well enough to both sides of the plate to generate weak contact.

5. C.J. Edwards, RHP, Chicago Cubs

5 GS, 12 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7 BB, 11 K

My only look at Edwards came in the Fall Stars Game, when he struck out two batters while working a scoreless third inning in relief of starter Archie Bradley. The wiry right-hander was as sharp as his line suggests, throwing a 91-94 mph fastball that jumps out of his hand due to deception, and his usual hard-sweeping, swing-and-miss breaking ball in the low- to mid-80s.

Other Notable Starters

Francellis Montas, RHP, Chicago White Sox [Scouting Video]

5 GS, 20 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9 BB, 17 K

Montas throws a heavy fastball at 94-97 mph and features a plus slider in the 87-89 mph range, but his command of the latter is inconsistent. 2015 should be a telling year for the 21-year-old right-hander.

Anthony DeSclafini, RHP, Miami Marlins

6 GS, 27 IP, 2.67 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4 BB, 24 K

One of several players in this year’s AFL with big league experience, DeSclafini has three average-or-better pitches, highlighted by a 93-94 mph running fastball, but misses over the heart of the plate too often. That said, his feel for executing sequences against inferior hitters really stood out in his Nov. 3 start.

Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros

6 GS, 26 IP, 2.77 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 7 BB, 20 K

All reports on Appel this fall have been positive, and his impressive numbers through six starts and 26 innings would seem to support that. However, the 2013 No. 1 overall draft pick was not impressive in his Oct. 31 start, when he allowed six runs (five earned) on five hits and three walks over four-plus innings. Appel cruised through the first two innings but then started to pick at the zone with his secondary pitches in the third inning, resulting in two runs on two hits and two walks. The same thing happened in the fifth inning when Appel turned over the lineup for a third time, as he put on the first three batters (two singles and a walk) before departing the game. 74 pitches, 43 strikes.

Breakout Stars

Elias Diaz, C, Pittsburgh Pirates [Scouting Video]

Diaz showed me in Arizona that he’s a guy to follow closely next season, especially if the Pirates fail to re-sign Russell Martin. The soon-to-be 24-year-old’s agility and quickness behind the plate makes him a strong blocker, and it really stood in the context of the AFL, where he’s usually forced to catch at least five different pitchers in a given game. His catch-and-throw skills, meanwhile, are simply ridiculous. How ridiculous, you ask? Well, I had him at a 1.86-second pop time to second base on a steal attempt…from his knees. A scout I spoke with at the game said he saw Diaz put up multiple sub-1.8-second pops during the previous week.

Michael De Leon, SS, Texas Rangers [Scouting Video]

De Leon is the youngest player in this year’s Arizona Fall League, and at 17, he’s more than held his own against many of the sport’s top prospects. However, De Leon does look 17 from a physical standpoint, and his lack of strength (6’1”, 160 pounds) was apparent at the plate, especially from the right side.

De Leon moves well at shortstop, showing quick feet and plenty of range, but like any teenager playing an up-the-middle position, he also has his share of timing issues, both with his footwork and throws. At the plate, the switch-hitter already demonstrates a strong feel for the strike zone, especially when tracking pitches laterally. And while he might not possess strength at the moment, the contact skills are there to produce consistent gap power.

Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees [Scouting Video]

At 6’7”, 230 pounds (debatable), Judge is not the poorly coordinated ogre you’d expect him to be. In fact, he’s the exact opposite. With a physical presence comparable to Giancarlo Stanton’s, Judge is an impressive athlete with very promising baseball skills on both sides of the ball.

At the plate, the towering right-handed batter doesn’t feature a typical big man’s swing; rather, Judge has a compact swing, keeping his hands close to his body throughout, and keeps the barrel in hitting zone for an extended period of time. There isn’t a lot of lift to Judge’s swing, but the guy is so damn strong he’s able to effortlessly rope line drives over fences. And if he can learn to get on top of pitches at the top of the zone, then the home runs should come in bunches.

Hunter Renfroe, RF, San Diego Padres [Scouting Video]

Hunter Renfroe likes to swing, a lot, and he’s always going to strike out more than desired. However, while his approach needs refinement, the 22-year-old’s ability to get the barrel to the ball is impressive, and he’s just missing a lot of pitches right now that he won’t in the future. Building off that, Renfroe also stands out for his ability to punish mistakes, while his power is among the best in this year’s AFL.

Brandon Drury, 3B/2B, Arizona Diamondbacks [Scouting Video]

Drury’s Fall Stars Game batting practice was my favorite. The 22-year-old put on a show, driving sharp line drives to the deepest part of Salt River Fields—the kind of line drives that make it easy to envision him clearing more fences as he develops.

Roman Quinn, CF, Philadelphia Phillies [Scouting Video]

The timing to Quinn’s right-handed swing is a mess and makes him extremely vulnerable to secondary pitches. He’s much more fluid from the left side of the plate, though, as his bat-to-ball skills enable him to consistently foul off tough pitches and put together lengthy at-bats. Quinn’s defense in center field was a pleasant surprise, as his plus speed translated well at the position, allowing him to track down numerous deep fly balls on the run. Beyond that, Quinn exhibited a good first step on sinking line drives, and he showed off an accurate, grade-50-plus arm on a few throws to the plate.

Jimmie Sherfy, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks [Scouting Video]

Sherfy, a 10th-round draft pick in 2013 out of Oregon State, doesn’t look like much at 6’0” and 175 pounds, but the right-hander is an impressive athlete with a quick arm and two plus pitches in a 94-97 mph fastball and swing-and-miss slider at 79-84 mph. Sherfy’s size and strenuous arm action raises questions about his long-term durability, and he tends to rely on stuff rather than command.

Enrique Burgos, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks [Scouting Video]

Burgos is said to have a fastball that routinely scrapes triple digits, but the right-hander was only 95-97 mph in my look. However, he pounded the zone with the pitch in his inning of work, and he also showed an ability to throw his sharp, mid-80s breaking ball for strike early in the count only to come back with it later to induce a whiff.

Kaleb Fleck, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks [Scouting Video]

Add Fleck, a 25-year-old right-hander, to the list of hard-throwing Diamondbacks’ prospects in this year’s AFL. Fleck picked up the save when I saw him on Nov. 5, as he vertically attacked opposing hitters with his explosive 94-96 mph fastball—I was told he usually flirted with triple digits during the regular season—en route to tallying a pair of strikeouts (Greg Bird, Josh Bell).

Jake Reed, RHP, Minnesota Twins [Scouting Video]

Selected in the fifth round of this year’s draft, Reed posted stellar numbers this in his pro debut, with a 0.29 ERA, 0.45 WHIP and 39-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31 innings, 25 of which were logged at Low-A Cedar Rapids. The 22-year-old right-hander features a 94-97 mph fastball from a low three-quarters slot, and he’s adept to working the pitch to both sides of the plate. Reed’s slider can have a hard diving action and should serve with a plus pitch at maturity, but right now, he sometime has the pitch linger up in the zone. All that being said, it’s easy to see why the Twins view him as a big part of their future bullpen.

Disappointments

Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Los Angeles Angels [Scouting Video]

Cowart gave up switch-hitting this year during an unsuccessful repeat of the Double-A level, and he looked lost at the plate in my looks earlier this month. Now 22, Cowart looked better back in 2012 when I saw him for the first time in the AFL, which speaks to how far his stock has fallen in the past two years.

Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Chicago Cubs [Scouting Video]

There’s no denying that Vogelbach can hit and hit for power. However, with an approach that uses his enormous plate coverage and ability to use the whole field, the left-handed hitter becomes vulnerable to velocity on the inner half. Even though Vogelbach has the bat speed and strength to turn on such pitches, his desire to extend toward the ball prevents him from consistently barreling fastballs on his hands, instead producing pop-ups and fly balls to the left side.

Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas City Royals [Scouting Video]

Take what I just said about Cowart and multiply it times 1,000. Starling has simplified his hitting mechanics a bit since the last time I saw him, but his actual swing-and-barrel action, as well as his pitch selection, is largely unchanged.