MLB International Free Agency: Contract Predictions for Top 10 Players

This year’s class of free agents features top-tier pitchers such as Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields, as well as a few middle-of-the-order hitters such as Hanley Ramirez, Victor Martinez and Pablo Sandoval. However, some organizations may be more interested in what the international market has to offer.

As of now, Yasmani Tomas is expected to be the most coveted international free agent, as teams have flocked to see the Cuban outfielder in various showcase events over the last two months. However, he is only one of numerous international talents capable of making an impact in the major leagues as early as the 2015 season.

But how much will teams spend on this year's top international talents?

Here’s an early look at the potential contracts for the top 10 international free agents, ranked by cost. Please keep in mind that this article features players who have not officially defected from Cuba as well as players expected to be posted this offseason by a Japanese or Korean league.

Jorge Despaigne, RHP

Right-handed pitcher Jorge Despaigne, 23, will not be exempt from international spending restrictions, having played only three seasons in Cuba. Given his age, Despaigne would have had to play at least five seasons internationally in order to sign a free-agent contract similar to that of Yasiel Puig or Jose Abreu.

It might not be long until we have a better idea about the potential market for Despaigne, as Baseball America's Ben Badler reported that the right-hander was scheduled to participate in a showcase Sept. 23 at the Los Angeles Dodgers complex in the Dominican Republic. Unfortunately, there hasn’t been any follow-up information regarding his performance or the teams that attended the event.

Despaigne likely will go to one of the few teams that has already blown past its bonus pools, and if that's ultimately the case, it wouldn't be surprising if the Yankees added him to their long list of 2014-15 international signings.

Projected Contract: $3.5 million

Yasmany Hernandez, LHP

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According to Diario De Cuba, pitcher Yasmany Hernandez left Cuba in mid-September to pursue a career in the major leagues (h/t Ben Badler of Baseball America).

The 23-year-old left-hander led Cuba’s Serie Nacional with a 1.66 ERA last season, also posting a 67-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 114 innings over 19 starts.

According to Badler, “Hernandez stands out for his pitchability, but by major league standards he has below-average stuff and is at best a modest prospect.”

With five years of playing experience under his belt, Hernandez won’t be subjected to international bonus pools, though Badler doesn’t believe there will be widespread interest in the southpaw. However, given his age and the fact that he throws from the left side, there surely will be a few clubs to pursue Hernandez. Just don’t expect any team to offer him serious money like some of the other names on this list.

Projected Contract: Two years, $4.5 million

Takashi Toritani, SS

Joel Sherman of the New York Post believes that “slick-fielding” Japanese shortstop Takashi Toritani is expected to make the jump to the major leagues this offseason.

Toritani, 33, has played the last 11 seasons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, batting .285/.372/.412 with 120 home runs in 1,556 games. The left-handed hitter has 274 doubles and 99 stolen bases in his career, and he’s posted at least 20 and 10 of each, respectively, in five consecutive seasons.

Given his age and advanced defense, Toritani has the profile of a potential utility infielder in the major leagues, which is plenty valuable. However, I wouldn’t expect the veteran to receive more than a one- or two-year deal worth nine figures.

Projected Contract: Two years, $6.5 million

Andy Ibanez, 2B

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Second baseman Andy Ibanez, 21, has left Cuba to pursue a career in the major leagues, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America (h/t Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors). Ibanez won a Gold Glove in Cuba’s Serie Nacional as a rookie in 2011-12, and he batted .267/.377/.435 in 280 plate appearances in his last season with Isla De La Juventud.

Badler notes that the 5’10”, 183-pound Ibanez “doesn’t have one standout tool but he’s an athletic player” and would begin his stateside career in the minor leagues, likely in High- or Double-A.

Ibanez will be subject to MLB’s international bonus pools due to his age and the fact that he played only three seasons in Cuba, though he’ll first need to establish residence in a new country and be cleared to sign by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).

With that in mind, Badler believes the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are in the best position to make a run at Ibanez, as all three teams have already exceeded their respective bonus pools and face overage taxes as well as signing restrictions in future years.

If that’s the case, Ibanez could receive a contract similar to the $8 million one the Los Angeles Angels gave to 20-year-old shortstop Roberto Baldoquin, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez.

Projected Contract: $7 million

Kwang-hyun Kim, LHP

Korean left-hander Kwang-hyun Kim was posted Nov. 4 by his Korean Baseball Organization club, SK Wyverns, reported Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com (h/t MLB Trade Rumors).

Kim will be subject to the old posting rules—not those established last offseason between MLB and Japan’s NPB—in which teams submit blind, unrestricted bids to SK to win negotiating rights to the 26-year-old southpaw.

C.J. Nitkowski of Fox Sports shares his thoughts on Kim, a teammate of his in the KBO five years ago:

"

Kim’s repertoire as it is right now is probably not enough for him to start in MLB. In 2014 the fastball sat 91-93 and at times saw 95. He only throws a four-seam fastball and the life on it is considered average. The velocity this season has also raised a few eyebrows. Through most of his career, including last season, Kim would sit 87-90 mph.

His best secondary pitch is his slider. He will throttle the velocity on it and you'€ll see it anywhere from 82-88. The harder he throws it the more it becomes like a cutter. Right now he is essentially a fastball/slider pitcher who could overpower most Korean hitters.

"

Nitkowski believes that Kim is best suited for a bullpen role in the major leagues, but he also notes he has potential as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter with improved secondary pitches.

Projected Contract: Three years, $12 million

Jung-ho Kang, SS

Korean shortstop Jung-ho Kang is likely to be posted this offseason, reports Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe.

Kang had a huge 2014 season for the Nexxen Heroes of the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO), batting .360/.463/.756 with a career-high 38 home runs in 107 games.

C.J. Nitkowski of Fox Sports has some concerns about Kang’s ability to remain at shortstop, but he believes that he’ll be able to offset any defensive shortcoming with 15-20 home runs in a given season.

Once Kang is officially posted, teams will be able to bid freely on the 27-year-old to determine negotiating rights. Should Nexxen accept the highest bid, which Nitkowski estimates will be somewhere in the $5 million to $8 million range, then Kang will be clear to sign, making him the first position player to make the jump from KBO to MLB.

Projected Contract: Three years, $21 million

Hector Olivera, 2B

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Baseball America’s Ben Badler reported Sept. 24 that second baseman Hector Olivera had defected from Cuba in pursuit of a career in Major League Baseball.

After missing the entire 2012-13 Serie Nacional season due to thrombosis in his left biceps, per Badler, the 29-year-old Olivera returned strong in 2013-14 to bat .316/.412/.474 with seven home runs, 38 walks and 25 strikeouts in 273 appearances for Santiago De Cuba.

More from Badler:

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At his best, Olivera (listed at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds) had been one of the most well-rounded players in Cuba, showing a combination of hitting ability, power, speed and size.

[…]

He also won the home run derby at the 2012 all-star game and has displayed impressive power for a middle infielder. He showed his hitting ability with a batting average .315 or better in nine of his 10 seasons in Cuba and recorded more walks than strikeouts in his last eight seasons. During the 2007-08 season, Olivera stole 21 bases in 22 attempts, although he hasn’t been much of a threat on the bases since then, even before he was sidelined.

"

Olivera still has to establish residency in a third country and be cleared to sign by OFAC, but age and five seasons playing in Serie Nacional will make him exempt from international bonus pools once he’s officially declared a free agent.

Olivera is likely to receive a fairly large contract over multiple years, possibly something similar to the four-year, $28 million deal the Dodgers gave to Alex Guerrero last offseason.

Projected Contract: Three or four years, $25 million-$35 million

Kenta Maeda, RHP

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Considering Kenta Maeda’s deep arsenal, including three pitches that grade as average or better, per Baseball America’s Bed Badler (subscription required), and strong command profile, the 26-year-old right-hander seemingly has the floor of a high-end No. 4 starter for a major league team.

However, any team interested in landing Maeda can make a run at him (if he’s posted) by submitting a bid no larger than $20 million, a rule established last offseason that facilitated the sweepstakes for Masahiro Tanaka, with negotiating rights going to the high bidder. Therefore, expect a host of clubs, likely many of the same ones that bid on Tanaka, to target the right-hander.

Maeda’s future price tag will be more than other back-of-the-rotation free agents due to his age and upside. That being said, the right-hander will have an opportunity to drive up his value in the upcoming five-game All-Star Series in Japan against a heavy-hitting MLB roster.

Projected Contract: Five years, $55 million

Jose Fernandez, 2B

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Second baseman Jose Fernandez has long been viewed as one of Cuba’s top players, but he and cousin/catcher Lazaro Herrera are still nowhere to be found.

From Ben Badler of Baseball America:

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Fernandez and catcher Lazaro Herrera, who are cousins and teammates on the Matanzas Crocodiles in Serie Nacional, have not played since Oct. 10. Matanzas manager Victor Mesa, who also manages the Cuban national team, had previously said he didn’t know why they were missing.

"

Badler’s report also notes that the president of Cuba’s baseball federation, Higinio Velez, has released both players from the Crocodiles, though he isn’t sure whether they’re still on the island.

If the 26-year-old Fernandez does defect, he’ll likely become one of the top free-agent position players on the market (once he’s cleared by both OPAC and MLB), and he'll have the potential to command a large contract due to his exemption from international spending restrictions.

Given his strong bat at second base and the lack of impact free agents available at the position this offseason, Fernandez is probably looking at something in the range of five or six years and at least $60 million.

Projected Contract: Five years, $65 million

Yasmany Tomas, OF

Koji Sasahara/Associated Press

According to Baseball America’s Ben Badler, “hundreds of scouts” attended Tomas’ September open showcase in the Dominican Republic, and the outfielder has since participated in private showcases for the Phillies and Rangers. Badler also noted that the Rangers, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Giants and Mets were heavily represented at the original open showcase but that most teams at least had a representative in attendance.

To put it simply, there’s a long list of teams interested in Tomas.

That being said, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports believes that the Phillies may be the front-runner to land him:

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The Phillies are said by people in the know to be “all over” Tomas, the outfielder/third baseman who has been holding private workouts in the Dominican Republic in recent days after a widely-attended September showcase that is said to have drawn all 30 MLB teams. 

"

After Boston signed 27-year-old Rusney Castillo in late August to a seven-year, $72.5 million contract, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe posited that Tomas could receive a deal north of $100 million based on a conversation he had with an international scout.

Meanwhile, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors also believes Tomas will sign a monster contract, even going so far as to predict the outfielder will receive $105 million over seven years, with an $80 million floor and $110 million ceiling.

Projected Contract: Seven years, $100 million