49ers vs. Saints: Why Dominant Ground Game Will Decide Marquee Matchup

Despite identical 4-4 records, the New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers are two teams heading in opposite directions prior to their Week 10 matchup at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

While the 49ers have lost two straight, have fallen three games behind Arizona in the NFC West and approach doom-and-gloom territory entering a game that's been touted as a “must-win” by NFL.com's Elliot Harrison, the Saints have won back-to-back games and lead the NFC South, which does not feature a team over .500. Furthermore, the Saints begin a stretch of three straight games at home, where they have won 11 straight by an average margin of 16.8 points.

The rushing attack has affected recent results for both teams for different reasons, as Mark Ingram—272 yards rushing on 54 carries over the last two games—has given the Saints a spark, while the 49ers have combined for only 142 yards on the ground over their two-game losing streak.

The outcome this Sunday will be heavily influenced by the ground game, so this article will break down that matchup for both sides.

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

49ers Rush Offense vs. Saints Rush Defense

There may not be another team in the NFL where a successful rushing attack has translated into wins as it has for the 49ers. Since Colin Kaepernick became the starting quarterback, the 49ers are 25-12 (including postseason): 20-7 when they break 100 yards rushing in a game and 5-5 when they do not.

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

That formula holds true for this season, as the 49ers are 3-1 when eclipsing 100 rushing yards and 1-3 when they fail to hit the century mark. That includes last week’s defeat to the Rams, when the 49ers faced a goal-to-go situation from inside the 2-yard-line in the final 30 seconds and elected to throw twice before Kaepernick fumbled on a quarterback sneak on third down.

The 49ers blueprint has always been a hard-nosed, smashmouth style of football, but it will be tough to get back on track against a Saints defense that ranks 10th in the NFL against the run, averaging 102.1 rushing yards per game, and has not allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 4.

It all starts with Frank Gore, who, according to CSNBayArea.com's Matt Maiocco, just guaranteed the 49ers would make the playoffs yet is on pace for career lows—in full seasons as the primary back—in rushing yards and touchdowns.

The 49ers go as their ground game goes, but perhaps more alarming is the inability of the running game—Gore specifically—to generate chunk plays this season:

49ers Breakdown: Rushes of 10+ Yards

	49ers					Frank Gore
	Amt.	Rank	Pct.	Rank		Amt.	Rank	Pct.	Rank
2014	25	T-16	10.8	17		11	T-16	9.5	27
2013	68	3	13.5	6		32	T-5	11.6	13

Source: STATS LLC

At the halfway point of the season, the team is on pace for only 50 rushing plays of at least 10 yards, and Gore is on pace for 22, both well behind league leaders as well as their final totals from a season ago. Moreover, Gore has only two rushes for at least 20 yards this season after nine in 2013, which ranked tied for second in the NFL behind Alfred Morris (10).

The 49ers offensive line ranks sixth in run blocking, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), which calls into question the play-calling by offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Through their 4-2 start, they averaged 32 rushing attempts per game, including 15.5 by Gore. Since then, both figures have decreased, to 19.5 and 11.5, respectively.

By the same token, the 49ers pass-blocking unit has graded poorly, according to PFF, and the Saints have recorded 12 of their 17 sacks in their last four games. Kaepernick has been sacked 14 times in the 49ers' last two games behind a struggling pass-blocking unit.

For San Francisco to get back on track, it must revert to the blueprint that has worked so effectively for the team in recent memory. Taylor Price of 49ers.com notes the winning team in the head-to-head meetings between the 49ers and Saints over the previous two seasons has had a more productive rushing attack and expects that to be the case again this Sunday.

 

Saints Rush Offense vs. 49ers Rush Defense

As long as quarterback Drew Brees is with the Saints, he will always be the face of their offensive identity.

However, New Orleans caught fire when Ingram started running well and took the lead role in the backfield. With Pierre Thomas (shoulder, ribs) and Khiry Robinson (forearm) both listed as out for Sunday’s game, Ingram will carry the load against the NFL’s No. 5 rush defense and attempt to become the first Saints running back with three consecutive 100-yard games since Deuce McAllister in 2003.

Ingram himself is listed as questionable, but Evan Woodbery of The Times-Picayune reported Ingram said his shoulder injury is not serious and will definitely play this Sunday.

Ingram has established career highs in rushing attempts in each of the last two weeks, rushing 24 times in Week 8 and 30 times in Week 9 while accumulating 272 yards and three touchdowns, with the caveat that he did so against the Packers and Panthers, who now rank 32nd and 26th in rush defense, respectively.

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport offered reasoning behind the resurgence of Ingram:

Ingram’s success to date this season can be linked partially to matchups. He has faced four soft-rush defenses, averaging 5.3 yards per carry against the Falcons, Browns, Packers and Panthers combined.

However, against the Detroit Lions, who held the NFL’s No. 1 rush defense at the time, he ran 10 times for only 16 yards in his first game back after missing the previous three due to a hand injury.

It is a forewarning to temper expectations entering this week’s matchup against the stout 49ers rush defense. Conor Orr of NFL.com wrote the Saints may find difficulty establishing the run against the 49ers and cautions “[their] defense is still good enough to shut down a team that [becomes] one-dimensional.” 

The NFC’s marquee matchup of Week 10 features two playoff hopefuls, and San Francisco faces a tough assignment to go into the Superdome and steal a win. Both are .500 teams and both are capable of piecing together a winning streak in the second half, but they could just as easily falter again as they did through the first half of the season.

Have the Saints truly turned the corner, or will the 49ers pull off the upset? That question will be answered Sunday afternoon in what is expected to be among the most compelling games of the weekend.