NFL Week 10 Picks: Predictions for Favorites and Underdogs

Upsets occur weekly in the NFL, making the lack of such an unexpected result the greatest upset imaginable. That being said, someone still needs to emerge from nowhere to pull off a stunner this weekend.

For many Week 10 games, the bigger question for bettors is whether the underdog can cover the spread. Certain bottom feeders don't stand much of a chance against the cream of the crop, but can any of them keep the margin within single digits?

That reasonable request looks unlikely for a few lopsided matchups on the weekend calendar. In terms of actually banking on an underdog to win, one must turn to a toss-up game in which the wrong team is favored. Let's take a look at predictions for all 12 games against the spread.

Away	Home	Spread	Prediction
Kansas City Chiefs	Buffalo Bills	Even	20-13 KC
Miami Dolphins	Detroit Lions	DET -2.5	24-21 MIA
Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	DAL -7.5	28-14 DAL
San Francisco 49ers	New Orleans Saints	NO -5.5	31-23 NO
Pittsburgh Steelers	New York Jets	PIT -3.5	34-16 PIT
Tennessee Titans	Baltimore Ravens	BAL -10.5	35-17 BAL
Atlanta Falcons	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	ATL -2.5	28-27 ATL
Denver Broncos	Oakland Raiders	DEN -11.5	42-14 DEN
St. Louis Rams	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -7	24-13 ARI
New York Giants	Seattle Seahawks	SEA-10	27-10 SEA
Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	GB -7.5	37-27 GB
Carolina Panthers	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -7.5	27-23 PHI

Note: All odds, courtesy of OddsShark, are updated as of 7 a.m. on Saturday, Nov. 8

Notable Favorite: Baltimore Ravens (-10.5)

Despite the sizable spread, the Baltimore Ravens are well positioned to shatter the betting line against the laboring Tennessee Titans.

Some interested parties may see these odds as an opportunity to pounce. After all, the Ravens are only 5-4, which is hardly the league's most dominating representative in terms of record. There's also the more serious matter of losing star cornerback Jimmy Smith for the rest of the season after undergoing foot surgery.

Pro Football Focus quantified the substantial blow to Baltimore's secondary.

"

Ravens CB Jimmy Smith grading at +7.0 in coverage. 20 rec on 39 targets for 163 yards. His 8.2 yds/attempt allowed ranks 2nd. Big loss

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) November 6, 2014"

Smith's absence will haunt them going forward, but Zach Mettenberger—on his second NFL start—won't pose enough of a threat to ignore the cavernous gap between these two opponents.

In terms of point differential, Baltimore rates third behind the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts. That sterling mark is due to its ability to run up the score on good days, attaining those five victories by a 21.2-point margin.

Joe Sargent/Getty Images

Besides a 20-point win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and a close call against the Cleveland Browns, they ran up that tally against feeble competition in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers. While skeptics could use that to argue against the Ravens' point differential, their ability to clobber weak adversaries is the entire point here.

Simply put, the Titans are not good. They're 2-6, and one of those triumphs came at the Jacksonville Jaguars' expense. Following Week 1's win over the Kansas City Chiefs with Jake Locker under center, they lost by a combined 66 points to the Dallas Cowboys, Colts and Cincinnati Bengals.

Tennessee's rushing defense will prove its downfall on Sunday, as Justin Forsett leads all running backs with 5.4 yards per carry. Even without Smith, Baltimore will cruise to victory behind a fruitful offensive outing.

Prediction: Ravens 35, Titans 17

Notable Underdog: Miami Dolphins (+2.5)

While the Miami Dolphins are on the heels of one of the season's most impressive beatdowns, the Detroit Lions have to feel embarrassed about placing their last game in the win column.

Against a potent San Diego Chargers offense, the Dolphins laid down a 37-0 whooping, limiting MVP candidate Philip Rivers 67 yards below his previous season-low yardage output alongside three picks. By gaining 441 total yards to San Diego's 178, Miami announced its intentions to push for a playoff spot.

Meanwhile, the Lions only salvaged victory against the 2-6 Falcons because they failed to snap their first unsuccessful field goal attempt in time. If Matt Ryan didn't gift wrap a late pick, they wouldn't have got the chance to avoid a massive upset in London.

Jordan Mansfield/Getty Images

The records say Detroit is better, but that's a tough pill to swallow. Miami sports a higher point differential (+60) than Detroit (+36)—or any NFC squad for that matter. Football Outsiders ranks the Dolphins third in team efficiency with the Lions at No. 12 due to an ineffective offense.

That unit will receive a monumental boost this weekend, as Calvin Johnson gears up to play for the first time since Week 5. He told the Detroit Free Press' Dave Birkett that his ankle feels better.

Following two one-point victories, the Lions are fortunate to not be sitting at 4-4. Without Johnson, picking Miami is an easier call, but his return reverts it back to a coin-flip decision. Since Johnson is not at full strength, don't expect a ground-breaking effort against a tough defense in his first game back.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Lions 21