Jon Lester Is Best All-Around Value on Upcoming Free-Agent Pitching Market

When the Oakland A's acquired Jon Lester at the 2014 trade deadline, they wanted him to do one thing: carry them deep into October.

Instead, Oakland limped into the postseason, and the veteran southpaw didn't make it past the American League Wild Card Game, allowing six runs in a 9-8 loss to the eventual AL champion Kansas City Royals.

Lester's 2014 ended on a sour note. However, that one game doesn't erase his pedigree or recent results, and it should do nothing to dissuade offseason suitors.

Make no mistake: As Lester hits the open market, he's one of the hottest free-agent commodities available—and he could end up being a (relative) bargain to boot.

Oh, he won't come cheap, not after posting a 2.46 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in 219.2 innings with the A's and Boston Red Sox last year. Plus, despite his high-profile hiccup, Lester is a playoff-tested stud; he owns a 2.57 ERA in 84 postseason innings and a pair of rings.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Here's the ultimate vote of confidence from A's general manager Billy Beane, defending his decision to give up Cuban slugger Yoenis Cespedes to net Lester, per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle:

"Simply put, if we don't have Jon Lester, I don't think we make the playoffs."

How much will Lester get in free agency? One pretty solid comparison is Cole Hamels, a veteran lefty with similar career numbers who inked a six-year, $144 million extension with the Philadelphia Phillies two years ago. Or there's Zack Greinke, another hurler whose age and numbers align with Lester's. He got $147 million over six years from the Los Angeles Dodgers in December 2012.

Adjusted for inflation, Lester could command around $160 million in a similarly structured deal.

Name	Age	Career IP	Career ERA	Contract
Cole Hamels	30	1801.1	3.27	6 yrs/$144 million
Zack Greinke	31	1872.0	3.55	6 yrs/$147 million
Jon Lester	30	1596.0	3.58	?

That's plenty of coin. But it's surely less than some club will shell out for Max Scherzer, the top free-agent pitcher this winter. Remember, Scherzer rejected an offer from the Detroit Tigers in March that would have made him one of the six richest pitchers in baseball, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.

And Lester might be the safer bet, dollar for dollar.

Scherzer, who won the Cy Young in 2013 and followed that up with another All-Star campaign, arguably has the bigger upside.

Lester, though, looks like a pitcher built to last. He'll turn 31 in January, which is a red flag for any club looking at the back end of a long-term deal. But he's defined as durable, as Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe noted July 31 after the trade to Oakland:

"

From 2008 to 2013, Lester made 31 or more starts each season, joining Cy Young, Roger Clemens, and Luis Tiant as the only Red Sox pitchers to accomplish that over six consecutive seasons. Lester also threw at least 200 innings five times.

"

Make that six times with his 2014 performance. And while the three-time All-Star is far from a soft-tosser—his fastball can touch the upper 90s when needed—he has the acumen and arsenal of secondary pitches to carve out a long career.

The suitors are already lining up. The Red Sox looked like a potential landing place almost from the moment they traded Lester away. Meanwhile, former Boston right-hander Jake Peavy, fresh off a championship run with the San Francisco Giants, recently stirred speculation that he and Lester could reunite with the Chicago Cubs, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.

"You never know what free agency brings," Peavy told Wittenmyer. "I've certainly talked to Jon Lester because we're buddies. So I have a feel for what he does. And I certainly know that Chicago would interest him and interest me."

Those are questions the offseason will sort out. What's unequivocally clear is that Lester will make some team's rotation measurably better this winter—and erase all memory of his final, ill-fated 2014 start.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.