Golden Tate an Ideal Sell-High Candidate in Fantasy Leagues After Week 8

Let's dispel a notion that's been increasingly floating around fantasy and real-life football circles: Calvin Johnson will not play this week in London against the Falcons. Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com and others have reported Johnson is ramping up activities and was back at practice Wednesday, which is all a positive sign for when the most talented receiver in football does return.

In November. At home against the Dolphins. A little more than two weeks from now. While Johnson wants to play and the Lions' offense is infinitely better with him on the field, logic will win out. Detroit goes on a bye following its trip to jolly 'ol England, thereby giving Johnson nearly a full month's rest to heal his high-ankle sprain.

Put him in the lineup too early against a cratering Falcons team and suddenly everything is back at square one. That Johnson is practicing this week is more of a sign he'll be back near 100 percent in Week 10 than it is he'll play Sunday.

We start with three paragraphs about Johnson because his status inextricably linked to Golden Tate's fantasy value. With Johnson either out or limited to decoy work due to his ankle, Tate has emerged as Matthew Stafford's new favorite player to force passes to. The former Notre Dame star has at least seven receptions each of the last four weeks and is averaging 112 yards in that time frame, including three games of 100-plus yards.

Sitting sixth overall for the season in receiving yards, Tate is already among the best bargain signings of this offseason. The Lions and Tate agreed on a five-year, $31 million contract, which sounds like a lot until looking at the relatively tiny $13.2 million in guarantees. Tate banked that he would be able to prove himself worthy of all $31 of those millions, and so far he's been correct.

“When I signed my contract, I’ve always had that mentality that I want the team who did sign me to feel like I’m being underpaid and the teams that didn’t sign me, wish that they did have me,” Tate said, per Tim Twentyman of the Lions' official website. “That’s just how I handle my business. So far it’s been working out, but I think the best is yet to come.”

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

In the micro sense, Tate may be right. His best very well could come this week against a Falcons secondary that has oscillated between abysmal and "please turn this off, I can't watch it anymore." For what feels like the umpteenth season, Atlanta is a bottom-five unit in yards allowed, yards per attempt and Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.

The only spot Atlanta hasn't been bad in is touchdown passes allowed, which is only because the Falcons have allowed an NFL-high 13 rushing scores—five more than any other team. While one may look at those numbers and assume this is the week Joique Bell joins the realm of the competent, more likely is that a regression to the touchdown mean is coming for Atlanta's secondary.

All of which is good news for Tate, who came in seventh on my weekly rankings. He's a no-brainer WR1 in every format, with a 100-yard game seeming like the bare minimum for expectations. Stafford, for all his physical talent, is not an especially nuanced quarterback. Despite Johnson's two-week absence and his disappearance for like a month now, no other Lions wide receiver besides Megatron and Tate has more than 17 targets.

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The ball will be headed to Tate and often, which is a good thing now and in the long term for fantasy owners if they play it right. Tate is a WR1 this week. Once the Lions return from bye, though, Tate will return to complementary status. While his first three weeks' worth of stats indicated he'll have value regardless—Tate averaged 5.3 receptions and 67 yards per game—it'll be closer to flex play or low-end WR2 value than his recent production.

The smartest possible move for all Tate owners is to start floating his name in trade talks, with hopes of getting something done at the beginning of next week. Fantasy trades aren't processed quickly enough to go through before Sunday's games, which should allow his owners to reap one last major reward before shipping him off.

Matt Dunham/Associated Press

In worthwhile leagues, most owners are going to know Tate's value is headed for a downfall and won't want to give up WR1 value. Trying to pull of a Le'Veon Bell miracle isn't going to happen unless you're playing in a league with 10-year-olds, in which case, stop trying to take advantage of 10-year-olds.

Smart owners should try targeting solid RB2s who lack the wow factor. If you can get Lamar Miller, Justin Forsett or Jerick McKinnon in return, that's going to become a better long-term investment. Miller and McKinnon especially are entrenched in jobs they appear in no danger of losing. It might even be possible to swing a Tate trade for a struggling top receiver if another owner is exasperated by the struggles of someone like Andre Johnson.

The point being: Take advantage of having Tate for one more week. After Sunday, get out of Dodge while you still can. That sound you hear is the best receiver in football coming to retake his throne.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter