NFL Draft Analysis: Bustology 101

The first round of the NFL draft is an exciting but dangerous place for both players and fans. The question on most people's minds is the same:

Will [insert name here] actually play like a first-rounder or will he bust?

Well, I decided to dig deeper into the dismal world of NFL Draft busts to help you, the fans, have a better idea of whether a player picked in the first round is going to bust or not, based on what part of the round they are picked in and what position they play.

My formula is this:

General consensus is that any player taken in the first round is expected to be a full-time starter within their first three years in the league, and to hold that position for the better part of a decade.

So, looking at the past five drafts (up to 2006, due to the aforementioned three-year grace period), I decided to figure out where in the first round each position's biggest and smallest bust rate is, based on that consensus.

How I determined which players could be labeled as "busts" is simple: if a player picked in the first round of those five drafts is not currently starting, they are considered a bust. And if they are not currently a starter due to injury, they will STILL be counted as a bust, since there are plenty of risky, injury-prone players picked every year. Sean Taylor will be counted as a starter, due to his tragic non-football related death.

*Note: If a running back picked is currently a part of their team's increasingly popular "running back by committee," they will be counted as a starter.*

I broke down the "areas" of the draft into quarters; picks 1-8, picks 9-16, picks 17-24 and picks 25-32, and took a look at each position's "bust rate" in each to determine where the most dangerous spot is, as well as where the safest spot is.

So, after reading this article, you should be able to either justify your skepticism of your favorite team's pick, or take comfort in knowing that there is a good chance whoever they choose will turn out fine.

These were my results:

Quarterbacks:

Most Dangerous Spot: picks 17-24 (75% Bust Rate)

Of the four quarterbacks picked in this range over the five-year period examined, only one (Aaron Rodgers) is currently a starter, while one is no longer in the NFL and one is competing just to hang onto a roster spot.

The three busts consist of:

• Kyle Boller - Picked No. 19 overall by Baltimore in 2003, currently a backup in St. Louis.
• Rex Grossman - Picked just three selections after Boller in 2003, Grossman signed with the Texans this offseason and, according to the Texans' website, is currently competing with Alex Brink for Houston's No. 3 quarterback job. If he loses to Brink, he will not be on the opening day roster.
  
• J.P. Losman - Picked No. 22 overall by Buffalo in 2004, currently on the roster for UFL Las Vegas of the newly formed United Football League.

If your team decides to take a chance on a QB in the mid-to-late portion of the first round, beware.

Safest Spot: picks 9-16 (33% Bust Rate)

Statistically, this spot is the safest to pick quarterbacks in, as only one of the three chosen in that spot, Matt Leinart, is not currently starting. And even he still looks to be the quarterback of the future in Arizona.

The two picked in this spot that are currently starting both turned out pretty well, as they have combined for two Super Bowl rings and two Pro Bowl berths between them. They are:

• Ben Roethlisberger - Picked No. 11 overall in a 2004 draft littered with current Pro Bowl quarterbacks (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Roethlisberger), starting QB for the reigning Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers.
  
• Jay Cutler - also Picked No. 11 two years after Roethlisberger, Cutler was actually taken immediately after Matt Leinart, the only current non-starter from this spot in the draft. Currently the starting QB for the Chicago Bears after being traded from the Denver Broncos earlier this offseason.

If your team is looking for a quarterback of the future, hope that they show just a little bit of patience in the first round.

Running Backs:

Most Dangerous Spot: picks 9-16 (100% Bust Rate)

Only one team over the five-year span which I examined decided to take a running back in this spot of the draft.

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