Fantasy Football: Crowded Backfield Situations to Avoid in Week 7

Among the many frustrations for serious fantasy football owners is analyzing start versus sit decisions throughout the course of a week leading up to the Sunday games, making up your mind at the last minute and then watching the games play out—only to see the player you started lay an egg and the player you benched pick up a nice chunk of yardage and score a highly coveted touchdown.

There are several NFL teams moving forward with crowded backfields in Week 7; thus, there's no need to over-analyze those situations. Maybe a player on this list scores a fluky touchdown, but he is not guaranteed enough touches to be counted upon to help lead your team to a win, so bench the running backs from these teams with confidence:

St. Louis Rams

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Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer told Joe Lyons of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch the Rams will use the “hot hand” approach in Week 7 vs. Seattle: “Early in the game, we try to get guys multiple touches (and) then we try to go with the hot hand late in the game. Most places that I’ve been that have really good running games, they had the people to spread the ball around. Different backs bring different types of plays.”

Zac Stacy has been a fantasy disappointment so far this season, with an average draft position (ADP) of 3.06 in standard 12-team leagues, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, only to underperform, based on Yahoo scoring projections in four of five games to date.

He suffered a calf injury in Week 5 but did not miss any time, although it opened the door for Benny Cunningham and rookie Tre Mason to cut into his workload. Stacy only played in 25 of the Rams' 67 offensive snaps (37.3 percent) last week against San Francisco, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Mason played nine snaps in his NFL debut last week, catching a 12-yard completion on his first touch and running for 24 yards on his first career-rushing attempt. He is nothing more than a speculative add at this point as the running back who could play a bigger role for the 1-4 Rams moving forward.

Stacy, Cunningham and Mason were unappealing matchups against the Seahawks defense—sixth in the NFL allowing 82.2 rushing yards per game—to begin with and are unplayable until the Rams move away from a running back-by-committee. None are a good bet for double-digit touches.

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New Orleans Saints

The return of Mark Ingram from a broken hand adds another weapon to the Saints backfield, which makes any of the running backs hard to trust from a fantasy standpoint. Khiry Robinson has averaged 5.2 yards per carry on 47 attempts in three games without Ingram, while Pierre Thomas is coming off his best game of the season—112 yards from scrimmage (35 rushing, 77 receiving) and two touchdowns on 12 touches (four rushes, eight receptions).

Furthermore, the Saints are facing a Lions defense that allows only 3.3 yards per attempt on the ground and ranks first in the league in yards per game (270.7) and points per game (13.7).

ESPN.com’s Mike Triplett wrote last week that he expected Ingram to be eased back into action: “Early on, it's possible that Ingram could be eased back into the action because he'll be a little rusty after missing four weeks with a broken hand - and the Saints have the luxury of doing so.”

With a completely healthy backfield through two weeks this season, Ingram led Saints running backs with 28 touches, followed by Thomas (19) and Robinson (14). If Ingram falls short of that workload, his fantasy value is dependent on scoring a touchdown, making him a highly risky start. Owners should keep all the backs in this committee on their bench against a tough matchup in Detroit and reevaluate usage heading into Week 8.

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Atlanta Falcons

Their four-headed “monster” consisting of Steven Jackson, Jacquizz Rodgers, Antone Smith and Devonta Freeman face a top-10 rushing defense in the Baltimore Ravens this week, making none of the above a viable play for fantasy purposes.

Jackson has eclipsed double-digit rushes five times through six games, but ranks 29th among running backs in standard scoring leagues, per NFL.com. He has averaged only 3.5 yards per carry since rushing for a season-high 54 yards in the Falcons' Week 3 blowout over Tampa Bay.

Smith checks in at No. 10, having scored in four straight games, taking 41- and 74- yard passes and 48- and 38- yard rushes to the house during that span as well as a 54-yard reception for a touchdown in Week 1.

Head coach Mike Smith said last week game that Antone Smith has “earned more touches,” according to D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Twitter, yet only rushed twice and saw four targets while playing 11 of 58 snaps (per PFF) in the game immediately following those comments.

Antone Smith was similarly explosive in very limited action last season, but it is foolish to bank on a long touchdown every week. Until the Falcons stay true to their word and utilize him more, he is a boom-or-bust option and a roll of the dice at best.

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Minnesota Vikings

Rookie Jerick McKinnon out-touched Matt Asiata 17-3 last week vs. Detroit and out-snapped him 47-16, according to Pro Football Focus, but it would be premature to label this as a changing of the guard in Minnesota.

Master Tesfatsion of the (Minneapolis) Star-Tribune reported that McKinnon said he knew in the week leading up to the game that he would receive the start, and that should be the case moving forward, but head coach Mike Zimmer pumped the breaks on the idea that Asiata was being phased out of the offense, saying he should get more touches.

Even with McKinnon taking on an expanded role, Asiata is likely to remain the goal-line back and will vulture touchdowns from the rookie. It is a situation to avoid this week in the Vikings road matchup against Buffalo, as the Bills have league’s best rush defense (67.5 yards per game) and are one of two teams, along with Kansas City, who have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season.

McKinnon is obviously the back to own from this tandem, but it's best to play it safe and see exactly how the situation unfolds in the near future. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

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Storm Johnson will make a second consecutive start in a slightly better matchup than last week, facing a Browns defense that allows 5.0 yards per carry and 149.6 per game. His one-yard touchdown last week gave him 8.1 fantasy points despite rushing for only 21 yards on 10 carries (nine in the first half), as head coach Gus Bradley indicated he was on a carry count.

Kevin Connaghan of Pro Football Focus believes the Jaguars “would be wise to give him more opportunities in the weeks ahead, regardless of [Toby] Gerhart’s health,” which makes him worthy of a roster spot but not a start. It makes sense for fantasy owners to be behind the curve on this one and not insert him into starting lineups until he proves he can pick up chunk yardage running behind a poor offensive line.