Making the Call on Week 7's Toughest Fantasy Lineup Decisions
Another week, another quality Thursday Night Football matchup. What did we do to deserve this?
With it came an over-the-top performance from New England Patriots running back Shane Vereen—whom many expected to benefit in a big way from Stevan Ridley's absence—and a largely unexpected big game from New York Jets back Chris Ivory.
They were both solid starts in my book this week, in contrast with Patriots receiver Brandon LaFell and running back Jonas Gray.
Here are 10 tough calls to make in fantasy football this weekend when it comes to sitting or starting certain players, based on opportunity, skill or injuries.
Sit: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
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This may be my most provocative call of the season, but it's not here for shock value.
Drew Brees hasn't enjoyed the same success this season that he has seen in recent years, particularly in the fantasy football realm.
It will be tough to bench the Saints' studly quarterback, particularly if you don't have a palatable replacement. If you have anyone worthwhile starting, however, you might want to think about putting Brees on your bench.
The reasons are twofold: Brees has been notoriously worse on the road in recent years, and he is likely to be without his big, bad tight end, Jimmy Graham—although ESPN.com's Mike Triplett wrote that Graham practiced on Thursday and has a shot to play.
But even if Graham does go, what are the odds he has a full workload with that shoulder injury?
There is a third reason to be wary of Brees that has nothing to do with his history or the injuries around him: The Detroit Lions have a legitimately good defense this season.
The Lions have been the stingiest fantasy defense to opposing quarterbacks this year through the first six weeks, allowing only 14.8 points per game—by far the league's best mark.
Maybe your best course would be to tread lightly.
Fantasy Prediction: 25-of-39, 245 yards, two TDs, two INTs
Final Verdict: There may not be a better option on your team, but Brees is liable to have a tough time on the road this week without his favorite target. Even if Graham plays, the matchup is terrible for Brees.
Start: Brian Hoyer, QB, Cleveland Browns
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He may have completed just eight passes last week, but Brian Hoyer still had a decent day in a big win for the Cleveland Browns.
Next up are the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are giving up 24.3 standard fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the sixth-most in the league. That number would be even higher had the Jaguars not benefited from facing Charlie Whitehurst last week.
Tight end Jordan Cameron is coming on as a big-time option for Hoyer, and Travis Benjamin, Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins have made a surprisingly competent wide receiver corps while they await Josh Gordon's return.
Even better, the running game is humming with Ben Tate back and rookie Isaiah Crowell playing well. The Jaguars are going to have to play honest, or else they will get pounded by the Browns running game. That should help open up the passing game for Hoyer.
You know, like it did last week when he threw a 51-yard touchdown to a wide-open Cameron.
Of course, it would take some serious stones to start Hoyer over, say, Drew Brees, but there is a better-than-bad chance that Hoyer will outscore Brees this week.
Fantasy Prediction: 18-of-29, 225 yards, two TDs, one INT; 10 rushing yards, zero rushing TDs
Final Verdict: Hoyer has a nice matchup this week and a strong running game to balance the offense. You could do worse.
Flex Only: Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Indianapolis Colts
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It has been a dream ride for Ahmad Bradshaw this season.
The Indianapolis running back has been a strong No. 2 for the Colts, particularly in the passing game. Bradshaw has thrived in that role, converting five catches for touchdowns when he had just three his entire career heading into the season.
At this point, Bradshaw is a must-start, right?
Well, a deeper look at Bradshaw's usage proves problematic for the 28-year-old back.
Diving into Bradshaw's statistics shows he is only being utilized on 32 percent of Indianapolis' rushing attempts and 18.9 percent of the team's fantasy scoring opportunities—targets plus rushing attempts divided by overall play count.
He is the only back among the top 10 below 23 percent of his team's fantasy scoring opportunities, and eight of the others are above 30 percent.
In other words, his production is a mirage unless he keeps scoring touchdowns on targets inside the 10-yard line.
Fantasy Prediction: 10 attempts, 40 yards, zero TDs; four receptions, 25 yards, zero TDs
Final Verdict: Banking on Bradshaw means banking on a touchdown. Granted, he has been pretty good at snagging those thus far this season, but he isn't being utilized enough to make that a safe bet.
Start: Andre Williams, RB, New York Giants
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Opportunity knocked at Andre Williams' door when Rashad Jennings went down injured a couple of weeks ago. He answered, but it seemed he left the door chain on.
Williams had a tepid fantasy line in what turned out to be an overall offensive debacle against the Philadelphia Eagles last week, disappointing fantasy owners everywhere who were sure he would do well.
The rookie gets another chance to answer that knock before the bye hits and Jennings takes back his job.
Williams goes up against a surprisingly good Dallas Cowboys defense that has allowed relatively few fantasy points—11th-fewest in the league—so starting Williams is a bit of a risk. The Giants are typically competitive in Dallas, though, and they don't really have a viable alternative unless you count Peyton Hillis.
Don't count Peyton Hillis.
Fantasy Prediction: 19 attempts, 75 yards, one TD; one reception, 10 yards, zero TDs
Final Verdict: Opportunity is the one who knocks, and Williams will make good on his mulligan.
Start: Andre Holmes, WR, Oakland Raiders
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Last week was a revelation for Andre Holmes and the Oakland Raiders.
The fourth-year wide receiver had himself a career day, totaling 121 yards and a couple of touchdowns against the San Diego Chargers. His performance was a huge part of a near upset, and it signaled a passing of the No. 1 receiving mantle in Oakland.
This had been brewing for some time, but it finally fermented into something special last week. The question now is how well Holmes will do after being uncorked.
Holmes should be a fine option at receiver going forward, and it will start this weekend against the Arizona Cardinals. A stout defense in 2013, the Cardinals have been bleeding fantasy points to opposing receivers this season.
Opposing wideouts are scoring the second-most fantasy points per game in the league against the Cardinals despite the presence of Patrick Peterson in that secondary.
Fantasy Prediction: five receptions, 95 yards, zero TDs
Final Verdict: Last week might have been a bit of an aberration with two touchdowns, but Holmes is primed for another big day against that Cardinals secondary.
Worth a Flier: Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
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For all intents and purposes, Markus Wheaton has been a disappointment in 2014.
He has caught just 24 passes for 277 yards and failed to score a touchdown through the first six games of the year. Those aren't awful numbers, but they haven't helped many fantasy owners.
The good news is Wheaton has been targeted 39 times the year, and he is a couple of touchdowns away from having a much better fantasy stock. The better news is that the Pittsburgh Steelers play the Houston Texans this week.
That's the same Texans team that is giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. The Houston defense got torched by T.Y. Hilton last week and has given up three touchdowns to No. 2 receivers this season.
Fantasy Prediction: five receptions, 65 yards, one TD
Final Verdict: Wheaton is going to score a touchdown at some point this season, and the Texans may be the team to get him in the end zone for the first time.
Start: Larry Donnell, TE, New York Giants
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A few weeks ago, Larry Donnell went supernova with three touchdowns. Looking at his statistics from the past couple of games, however, it seems like he flamed out.
Donnell benched himself that fateful night, only to put himself in the starting lineup the following week, when he posted a big goose egg on one target.
Last week wasn't much better for Donnell, who followed up that big fat zero with one catch for six yards. It was another meager stat line that would've looked a bit nicer had his incredible touchdown reception not been called back on a penalty.
It has been enough to scare fantasy owners away from starting him, but that would mean benching him when he is ready to start delivering again.
This week, Donnell faces off against the Cowboys. The Dallas defense was giving up oodles of fantasy points to tight ends this season before facing Garrett Graham and Luke Willson in consecutive weeks.
Fantasy Prediction: four receptions, 45 yards, one TD
Final Verdict: The Cowboys are one of the worst defenses against tight ends in the fantasy realm, and Donnell is due for a decent game after a couple of bad ones.
Sit: Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers
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You might want to wait for Vernon Davis to look like himself before putting him in your fantasy lineup.
Davis has been hampered by injury this season, and it seems to be affecting his play. Last week, Davis dropped a couple of passes and generally looked ineffective against the St. Louis Rams.
The Denver Broncos, meanwhile, have given up just two touchdowns and 8.9 standard fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season. That is good for the middle of the pack, but it's not a great matchup for a tight end who seems to be fighting his way back to form.
Fantasy Prediction: four receptions, 45 yards, zero TDs
Final Verdict: There is simply no reason to trust Davis until he shows he is all the way back from injury, particularly with so many breakout players at the tight end position this season.
Sit: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
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What in the world is wrong with Matthew Stafford?
Sure, he is winning games, but it's been his defense that has carried the Detroit Lions to victory in recent weeks. Stafford, meanwhile, has been an abject disappointment in the fantasy realm. What gives?
Well, Calvin Johnson is out, that's what.
Megatron has been dealing with an ankle injury that finally sidelined him last week, and it looks like he will be out for a little while longer.
"Like I said, there's no point in being on the field if I can't go out there and do what I got to do," Johnson said, according to ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein. "Do what I got to do and do it to a high level that I'm used to doing it at."
Stafford has clearly suffered with Johnson ailing or out, completing just 57.8 percent of his passes for 416 yards and two touchdowns over the past couple of games. That sounds like some of the single-game lines we have seen from the gunslinger in years past.
Stafford's saving grace is his matchup—the New Orleans Saints aren't exactly shutting down opposing quarterbacks this season. But a bye week may have given Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan some time to plan for Stafford, who will need to rely on a much less explosive arsenal with his main weapon out of commission.
Fantasy Prediction: 21-of-35, 225 yards, one TD, one INT; 15 rushing yards, zero rushing TDs
Final Verdict: Without Megatron, Stafford might be in for another long day in the fantasy realm.
All fantasy statistics and rankings courtesy of FFToday.com.
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