NFL Predictions Week 6: Final Odds Projections and Fantasy Stars to Watch

For the first time this season, Thursday Night Football didn't result in a blowout victory. The Indianapolis Colts dominated early in the game, but a late comeback by the Houston Texans concluded with just a five-point win for the home team. The Colts covered the spread but not before giving bettors an overwhelming feeling of anxiety.

From a fantasy perspective, owners of Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, Andre Johnson and Arian Foster came away happy. Unfortunately, Reggie Wayne and DeAndre Hopkins didn't produce favorable results. Owners of either Trent Richardson or Ahmad Bradshaw were at least awarded with a touchdown.

With 14 more games on the Week 6 slate, we can begin to decipher which teams will win against the spread and which fantasy stars will produce big-time performances. Let's take a look at the odds for each contest, predict the winner and list the top projected fantasy performer.

Mathup	Spread	Pick ATS	Fantasy Stud
Detroit at Minnesota	off	Detroit	Golden Tate
Denver at NY Jets	DEN (-10)	Denver	Emmanuel Sanders
New England at Buffalo	NE (-3)	New England	Rob Gronkowski
Baltimore at Tampa Bay	BAL (-3.5)	Baltimore	Steve Smith
Carolina at Cincinnati	CIN (-7)	Cincinnati	Giovani Bernard
Jacksonville at Tennessee	off	Jacksonville	Storm Johnson
Pittsburgh at Cleveland	CLE (-1)	Cleveland	Antonio Brown
Green Bay at Miami	GB (-3.5)	Green Bay	Aaron Rodgers
San Diego at Oakland	SD (-7.5)	San Diego	Antonio Gates
Chicago at Atlanta	ATL (-3)	Atlanta	Julio Jones
Washington at Arizona	off	Washington	DeSean Jackson
Dallas at Seattle	SEA (-9)	Dallas	Marshawn Lynch
NY Giants at Philadelphia	PHI (-3)	NY Giants	Victor Cruz
San Francisco at St. Louis	SF (-3.5)	San Francisco	Frank Gore

All odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of October 10.

Fantasy Analysis

Golden Tate

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Tate has been a fantasy stud for two consecutive weeks now, delivering monster performances against the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills. Now, the wide receiver is set to take on the Minnesota Vikings in Week 6—without Calvin Johnson in the fold.

According to Kyle Meinke of MLive.com, the Detroit Lions don't expect Johnson or running back Reggie Bush to play on Sunday. While that's bad news for the team, it's great news for Tate's fantasy owners.

Around the NFL has the right idea:

Over the past two weeks, Tate has been the beneficiary of Johnson's lingering ankle injury. Quarterback Matthew Stafford began to target the fifth-year veteran early and often over those contests, and that resulted in a total of 15 receptions for 250 yards and a touchdown in that span.

Minnesota's secondary has been better than both New York and Buffalo's; however, Tate's mass amount of targets will lead to plenty of opportunities to put up big points for a third straight week. He should find his way into starting lineups as a very solid WR2 in Week 6.

Giovani Bernard

Stephan Savoia/Associated Press

Bernard has become a must-start fantasy running back each and every week; however, he is in a very favorable situation in Week 6.

The Carolina Panthers haven't been solid against the run over their past several games, leading to a league ranking of 24th and allowing an average of 129.6 yards per game to opposing ball-carriers. Bernard is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season, but he's also reached the end zone three times in four games.

Making the running back's value even more significant is the absence of All-Pro wide receiver A.J. Green, via ESPN.com's Bob Holtzman (h/t Coley Harvey). Green garners plenty of targets per game, and wide receiver Marvin Jones isn't ready to take the field just yet. That leaves Bernard as the one player who is capable of stretching the field.

Harvey tweeted his thoughts on Bernard's increased role in Green's absence: 

Expect quarterback Andy Dalton to target Bernard heavily out of the backfield and from the slot. Consider Bernard a top-notch RB1 in standard leagues and solid gold in points-per-reception formats.

Aaron Rodgers

Tom Lynn/Associated Press

Rodgers should never find his way on any fantasy player's bench—with the exception of his bye week. While he is always primed for a big performance, he is poised to go off against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

Through five games this season, Rodgers has thrown for at least three touchdowns on three separate occasions. He's been rolling of late, throwing for 458 yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last two contests.

NFL Network's Jeff Darlington tweeted the quarterback's recent brilliant play:

While the Dolphins do have the league's ninth-ranked pass defense, they may not be as formidable as their ranking suggests. After all, they faced a sluggish New England Patriots offense in Week 1 and followed it up with games against EJ Manuel, Alex Smith and Derek Carr—not exactly gunslingers.

Rodgers' impending big performance means boosts in value for both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Expect Nelson to rack up the yardage once again and Cobb to reach paydirt at least once. As always, consider Rodgers a top-tier quarterback and start him with confidence.