NFL Week 6 Picks: Predictions for Favorites and Underdogs

Following a clash between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football, Week 6 of the 2014 NFL season is officially underway. If we've learned anything about teams that Vegas oddsmakers deem favorites so far, it's this: Those squads most certainly are not locks to generate a win.

A bevy of underdog squads have risen up in big ways throughout the past five weeks this season, delivering crushing blows to their favored opponents. This will continue to be the case in Week 6. With plenty of compelling matchups on the remaining slate of games, no team is safe from utter defeat.

So, here's the burning question: Which favorite teams are poised to live up to expectations, and which will wind up disappointing in Week 6? Let's go ahead and predict the answer.

Mathup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Detroit at Minnesota	off	Detroit	Teddy Bridgewater won't find the same success against Detroit's defense.
Denver at NY Jets	DEN (-10)	Denver	Peyton Manning against the Jets' secondary is enough for a double-digit win.
New England at Buffalo	NE (-3)	New England	New England is hot, and Kyle Orton won't be able to keep up.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay	BAL (-3.5)	Baltimore	Baltimore is in need of a rebound win, and Tampa Bay is bad enough to allow just that.
Carolina at Cincinnati	CIN (-7)	Cincinnati	The Bengals are reeling after a terrible defeat in Week 5, and they get the Panthers at home.
Jacksonville at Tennessee	off	Jacksonville	Jacksonville may actually be better than Tennessee right now.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland	CLE (-1)	Cleveland	Don't sleep on the Browns, especially against the listless Steelers.
Green Bay at Miami	GB (-3.5)	Green Bay	When Aaron Rodgers is hot, it's tough to bet against him.
San Diego at Oakland	SD (-7.5)	San Diego	The Chargers may be the league's best team right now, and they're facing the league's worst.
Chicago at Atlanta	ATL (-3)	Atlanta	See analysis below.
Washington at Arizona	off	Washington	Kirk Cousins looked better against Seattle, and rookie Logan Thomas might be starting for the Cardinals.
Dallas at Seattle	SEA (-9)	Dallas	Dallas has been surprisingly good lately. This team can hang with Seattle at home.
NY Giants at Philadelphia	PHI (-3)	NY Giants	See analysis below.
San Francisco at St. Louis	SF (-3.5)	San Francisco	San Francisco finally began to run the ball effectively, and it will earn another win with that strategy.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Oct. 10.

Notable Favorite Breakdown: Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

The Falcons currently hold a 2-3 record, but here's the funny thing: This team has played far different at home, earning both wins in the Georgia Dome. This week, Atlanta returns to its home turf against a Chicago Bears team that has suffered plenty of setbacks in recent weeks.

Atlanta has one of the league's most potent aerial attacks, as Matt Ryan has been abundantly efficient thanks, in part, to the wide receiver duo of Julio Jones and Roddy White. Although, one glaring issue for the Falcons' offense has been injuries along the offensive line.

Luckily for the Falcons, left tackle Jake Matthews is probable for Week 6, and left guard Justin Blalock appears ready to return to the starting lineup after practicing three times throughout the week, according to Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com.

Getting an upgrade in the trenches will be huge for this Falcons offense, as Ryan will be afforded more time to effectively distribute the ball to his talented targets against a Chicago pass rush that has generated 11 sacks so far this season.

Joe Ostrowski of 670thescore.com tweeted Ryan's career efficiency at home:

On the defensive side of the ball, Atlanta may be at a huge disadvantage. Jay Cutler has shown flashes of brilliance this season, tossing dimes all over the field to wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall along with tight end Martellus Bennett. However, he's struggled under pressure and has delivered several costly errant throws as a result.

Coming into Week 6, Cutler has thrown two interceptions in each of his last two contests. Although, Atlanta may not be able to generate enough pressure to continue that trend. After all, the Falcons have only recorded a total of four sacks this season.

Still, we should expect a shootout in this one. Expect both quarterbacks to have huge days, with Ryan leading a game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter to notch his team's third home victory this season.

Prediction: Falcons 34, Bears 30

Notable Underdog Breakdown: New York Giants (+3)

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

The Giants enter their impending Sunday Night Football contest against the Philadelphia Eagles as one of the NFL's hottest teams. After a slow start to the season, Eli Manning finally grasped the team's new offensive scheme, and that has resulted in three consecutive, and decisive, victories.

Over the past three weeks, Manning has thrown for 734 yards and eight touchdowns against just one interception. He posted passer ratings of over 100 in each of those contests. Now, he faces an Eagles secondary ranked 29th in the league against the pass, allowing an average of 274.2 yards per game through the air.

Greg Rosenthal of NFL.com expects more of the same from Manning in the future:

Not much better against the run, the Eagles are giving up an average of 132.0 yards on the ground per game, which is good enough to rank 25th in the league. The Giants may not have Rashad Jennings this week, but rookie Andre Williams has proved to be a viable replacement, finding the end zone in each of his last two games.

Philadelphia's offense is heralded as one of the league's most prolific; however, star running back LeSean McCoy has struggled to get it going this season. That trend could continue on Sunday night up against a Giants run defense that ranks 10th in the league, allowing an average of 99.0 yards on the ground per game.

With that in mind, quarterback Nick Foles will have to shoulder a large workload. That may not be favorable, as Philadelphia's signal-caller hasn't exactly duplicated his efficiency this season—he's tossed five picks through five games—and New York's defense leads the league with eight interceptions this year.

Expect this game to be a close one, as the Eagles will certainly be a formidable opponent at home. Although, the Giants are on a hot streak and appear to be the more well-rounded team in this contest. New York earns a close road victory here.

Prediction: Giants 27, Eagles 23