NFL Picks Week 5: Predicting Biggest Upsets on Sunday's Slate

Upsets are a big part of the NFL, and considering how unpredictable the 2014 season has been through four weeks, we should see a few more of them in Week 5.

We're on the heels of some very unexpected finishes from Week 4—the Pittsburgh Steelers, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots all fell victim to underdog teams—and Sunday's slate of games features several matchups that could produce that same result.

So, which favored teams are likely to fall this time around?

Taking game odds, via Odds Shark, into consideration, here's a look at the three most likely games to finish with the underdog on top.

Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) Defeat Indianapolis Colts

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

The Ravens are road underdogs Sunday, despite an impressive three-game winning streak that culminated in a 38-10 drubbing of the Carolina Panthers in Week 4.

Baltimore has finally found a balanced offense, as a backfield-by-committee approach has led to less pressure on quarterback Joe Flacco. Because of this, the Ravens are averaging 4.5 yards per carry on the ground, and Flacco currently boasts a 93.4 passer rating.

On the defensive side of the ball, Baltimore has looked good in the trenches, allowing just 82.5 yards per game on the ground. However, the team is having difficulty pressuring the passer—generating only four sacks this season—and is ranked 24th in the league against the pass as a result.

Indianapolis coach Chuck Pagano had some high praise for Baltimore's defense, via the team's official Twitter account:

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has been on fire of late, throwing for at least 370 yards and four touchdowns in each of his last two games. However, much of his success has come from a balanced offense due to the emergence of Ahmad Bradshaw. This week, expect Indianapolis to be far more one-sided against Baltimore's front seven.

A lack of a running game will lead to more passing attempts for Luck. Over the first two weeks of the season, the Colts lost close contests to the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles, as the team's quarterback attempted a total of 87 passing attempts.

Baltimore will come out on top if its defense can create a similar kind of unbalance in Indianapolis on Sunday.

Chicago Bears (+3) Defeat Carolina Panthers

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Here's a battle of two teams in desperate need of a win after poor Week 4 showings. Jay Cutler and the Bears followed up two solid performances with a disastrous second half against the Green Bay Packers. Conversely, the Panthers looked fantastic over the first two weeks of the season, but they weren't able to get it together on either side of the ball in Weeks 3 and 4.

On Sunday, the Bears travel to Carolina as three-point underdogs. The formula for a Panthers victory is pretty simple: Utilize the running game and limit turnovers.

This strategy worked beautifully in the first half of Chicago's Week 4 contest against Green Bay. Running backs Matt Forte and Ka'Deem Carey had their way on the ground, while Cutler picked apart the Packers secondary with scoring strikes to Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Unfortunately, two second-half interceptions doomed the team.

According to Jeff Dickerson of ESPN Chicago, Cutler noted that the recently ailing Marshall looked good during practice:

That's a great sign for Chicago.

Heading into Week 5, the Panthers run defense is ranked 27th in the league, allowing an average of 140.8 yards per game. Forte and Co. will have plenty of opportunities to gain chunks of yards at a time against this unit. Carolina also has a limited rushing offense—ranked 29th in the league—which bodes well for a Bears team that has struggled to stop the run this season.

Chicago has accumulated nine sacks while tallying six interceptions through four games this season. If the team's defense can keep up the pressure on Cam Newton while stressing ball security on offense, it will leave Carolina with a win.

Cleveland Browns (+1.5) Defeat Tennessee Titans

David Richard/Associated Press

The Browns and Titans have similar records heading into Week 5. Cleveland sits at 1-2 and is coming off a bye week, while Tennessee is 1-3 after suffering its third consecutive loss. Despite both teams holding losing records, the quality of their games has been very different.

Cleveland has a sneaky-good offense this season. The team is ranked 16th in the league in passing offense and ninth in rushing offense. Making things better for the Browns, starting running back Ben Tate is expected to be back in action for the first time since Week 1, according to Nathan Zegura of ClevelandBrowns.com:

With Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West recently playing well for the Browns, this backfield committee is poised to do some damage.

While Cleveland's defense hasn't been overly spectacular—it's ranked 27th against the pass and 29th against the run—it has been good enough to keep the team in games against solid opponents. In fact, Cleveland is 1-2 after playing the Steelers, Ravens and Saints, but only by a negative-three point margin.

Meanwhile, the Titans have been getting trounced by opponents of late. The team looked good in Week 1, defeating the Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 26-10, but it has since fallen to the Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals and Colts by a collective margin of 66 points.

Oft-injured quarterback Jake Locker is expected to start again for the Titans on Sunday, via SportsCenter:

But he was terrible over his last two starts, posting passer ratings of 60.2 and 41.9, respectively.

Expect the Browns to put their three-headed rushing attack to work in an effort to control the clock while quarterback Brian Hoyer remains efficient enough to defeat a struggling Titans team.