NFL Picks Week 5: Analyzing Biggest Locks Against the Spread

Parity seems to be the name of the game in the NFL nowadays with most teams separated by so little on a weekly basis, and that naturally makes betting on the games more difficult than ever.

Only two undefeated teams remain in the league through just four weeks, and there has seemingly been at least one shocking result in every week thus far.

That isn't likely to change in Week 5, but there are certainly a few games on the schedule that should look very enticing to bettors. Trends are starting to form and prognosticators are starting to get a better feel for the teams, but there are still a few lines that can be taken advantage of.

Here is a full rundown of picks for every Week 5 game as well as special focus on the top bets against the spread.

*Spreads courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Date	Away	Home	Spread	Pick Straight Up	Pick ATS
Oct. 2	Minnesota Vikings	Green Bay Packers	GB (-10)	GB	GB
Oct. 5	Chicago Bears	Carolina Panthers	CAR (-3)	CHI	CHI
Oct. 5	Cleveland Browns	Tennessee Titans	TEN (-2.5)	CLE	CLE
Oct. 5	St. Louis Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI (-7)	PHI	PHI
Oct. 5	Atlanta Falcons	New York Giants	NYG (-4)	NYG	NYG
Oct. 5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	New Orleans Saints	NO (-11)	NO	NO
Oct. 5	Houston Texans	Dallas Cowboys	DAL (-4.5)	DAL	HOU
Oct. 5	Buffalo Bills	Detroit Lions	DET (-7.5)	DET	DET
Oct. 5	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	IND (-3.5)	IND	IND
Oct. 5	Pittsburgh Steelers	Jacksonville Jaguars	PIT (-7)	PIT	JAC
Oct. 5	Arizona Cardinals	Denver Broncos	DEN (-8)	DEN	DEN
Oct. 5	Kansas City Chiefs	San Francisco 49ers	SF (-7)	SF	KC
Oct. 5	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers	SD (-7)	SD	SD
Oct. 5	Cincinnati Bengals	New England Patriots	EVEN	CIN	CIN
Oct. 6	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins	SEA (-7.5)	SEA	SEA

Denver Broncos (-8) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

The undefeated Arizona Cardinals will face the biggest challenge of their season thus far in Week 5 when they travel to Denver to take on the 2-1 Broncos. Denver nearly pulled off an upset on the road against the Seattle Seahawks last week, and there is no question that the Broncos are considered to be among the NFL's elite regardless of the loss.

Arizona isn't viewed as being in the same class despite its impressive start, and eight points is certainly a lot to give an undefeated team. The Broncos deserve to be the clear favorites, though, due to a number of factors.

Home-field advantage should be a huge plus in Denver's favor, as should the fact that Arizona could be shorthanded on offense once again this week.

Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer has missed the past two games with a shoulder injury, and ESPN's Ed Werder is reporting that his recovery has been slow:

If Palmer can't start, then Drew Stanton will once again step in. Although Stanton has been admirable, he isn't the type of signal-caller capable of keeping up with Peyton Manning. Even if Palmer does start, though, there is no guarantee that he'll be anywhere close to 100 percent.

In addition to that, the Broncos defense is poised to receive a huge boost in Week 5 with linebacker Danny Trevathan set to return from a leg injury that has kept him out all season. According to Troy E. Renck of The Denver Post, head coach John Fox is excited to see his starting linebacker back in action.

"Danny has tremendous speed and explosion. I have seen him progress every season, every game," Fox said. "I thought Brandon Marshall stepped in and did a real good job. But we welcome back Danny."

Arizona's defense will provide the Broncos with a tough test, but it is somewhat insane to bet against Manning coming off a bye week. Denver has yet to truly bury a team this season, but it is easy to envision the Broncos taking this one by at least two scores.

New Orleans Saints (-11) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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With a record of 1-3, the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are currently tied for last in the NFC South. At the same time, both teams are just one game out of first, which makes their Week 5 meeting at the Superdome extremely crucial.

The Saints are coming off an embarrassing 38-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night, while the Bucs shocked the Pittsburgh Steelers with a last-second, comeback victory. That win came on the heels of Tampa getting blown out by the Atlanta Falcons one week earlier, so the Saints are looking to take a page out of their book.

Nothing has been clicking for New Orleans so far this season, but defense has clearly been the biggest problem. In fact, the Saints offense actually ranks near the top of the league in a few vital categories, according to Larry Holder NOLA.com:

New Orleans has struggled to find the end zone with consistency, but that can't possibly last for long. With quarterback Drew Brees throwing to the likes of Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks, a breakout performance is inevitable.

The Saints also happen to be a far better team at home, which is where they'll be in Week 5. Tampa was blasted in a dome just a couple weeks ago, and something similar could very well happen on Sunday.

While the Bucs definitely received a boost from Mike Glennon taking over at quarterback, he won't be able to match a motivated Brees. A loss to the Buccaneers to fall to 1-4 would essentially feel like the end of the line for New Orleans this season, and that simply won't happen.

Look for the Saints to win comfortably and begin their ascent to the top of the NFC South in earnest.

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans

Jason Miller/Getty Images

While the Week 5 meeting between the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans may not jump off the page as an exciting game, the point spread certainly seems odd. The Titans are favored by 2.5 points despite having looked awful in three straight losses since a season-opening win.

Cleveland, on the other hand, is 1-2 with narrow losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens that could have easily been victories. Among those who believe the Browns will overcome the curious spread is Nick Camino of WTAM 1100 in Cleveland:

Quarterback Brian Hoyer has been solid for the Browns thus far, and the running game has thrived with an ensemble cast as well. To make matters even better for Cleveland, Tony Grossi of ESPN Cleveland expects to see running back Ben Tate back in the mix after missing two games with a knee injury:

Grossi also expects quarterback Jake Locker to start for the Titans after suffering a wrist injury two weeks ago, but that isn't a guarantee. Even if Locker does play, his past two starts have been poor, and his play could be adversely impacted by the wrist ailment.

Simply put, Cleveland has played much better than Tennessee has this season. The Browns aren't a great team by any means, but they compete hard and have been in every game right down to the wire. The same can't be said for the Titans.

This is a game the Browns need to win if they want to even be on the fringes of playoff contention, and they will find a way to do so after a week of rest.

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