2014-15 MLB Free Agents: B/R's Initial Top 25 Big Board
The 2014 MLB regular season ended Sunday, and there will not be any one-game playoffs to determine division winners or wild-card participants. Not that there wasn’t a high level of anxiety in more than a few cities across the country, of course.
So with the postseason set to begin, it's time to take a look at the first installment of Bleacher Report’s top 25 free agents set to hit the open market this offseason. We'll call it the "big board."
As usual, there are more question marks in free agency than answers.
Which MLB team, for example, will expand payroll to fill a need the way the Seattle Mariners did last season when they landed second baseman Robinson Cano? Which players will get qualifying offers, effectively eliminating potential suitors from the conversation because of draft-pick compensation?
Well, the answer to those questions begins with identifying who the 25 best free agents are relative to their position.
Ranking Criteria
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The rankings will be based on each player’s WAR ranking by position as compiled by FanGraphs. Hitters can be found here and then broken down by position, starters are listed here and relievers are here.
Now, in order to be included in the top 10, a player must have a 2.0 WAR. In addition, position players and relievers must be in their individual group’s top 10, while starting pitchers must be in the top 20.
In other words, a starting pitcher who is set to hit free agency this offseason who ranks 22nd among all starters but has a 4.5 WAR is not eligible to make the top 10. The same goes for a third baseman with a 3.1 WAR who ranks 11th at the hot corner.
If a player meets the requirements, he will be ranked according to his value at the position. So even if one player’s WAR is a bit lower than another’s, but he is more valuable at his particular spot on the roster, he will earn the higher ranking. After all, this is an exercise in relativity.
For Nos. 11-25, they will be listed according to their WAR ranking. For example, an outfielder could have a 2.5 WAR, yet rank 36th among hitters at his position, and a reliever could have a 1.4 WAR and rank 18th among bullpen arms. In this case, the pitcher will be ranked higher because of his value at the position.
Lastly, all players must have at least a 1.0 WAR to be considered.
Nos. 25-21
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25. Colby Lewis, SP
Texas Rangers right-hander Colby Lewis (1.6 WAR, No. 66 position rank) certainly has the ability to be a solid contributor at the back end of any rotation. Look no further than his 2010 campaign, during which he went 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA, 3.55 FIP and a 4.9 WAR in 32 starts.
The Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves could be interested in adding Lewis for one or two years. That said, he likely remains with the Rangers.
24. Francisco Liriano, SP
Francisco Liriano (1.6 WAR, No. 65 position rank) has really turned it on since returning from the disabled list in the middle of July, posting a 2.40 ERA with a .192 batting average against in 15 starts, per Baseball-Reference.
Clubs that could pursue Liriano include the Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants.
23. Jason Hammel, SP
To be sure, Jason Hammel (1.7 WAR, No. 63 position rank) has struggled since his trade to the Oakland A’s, but he did get off to a fantastic start to the season.
And when we look at clubs that could add him to the roster, the conversation starts and ends with National League teams. In 113 games in the NL over the course of his career, he is pitching to a 4.35 ERA and a 3.92 FIP. In 132 American League appearances, those numbers swell to 4.90 and 4.68, respectively. The Philadelphia Phillies are one club that could have an interest in bringing Hammel over.
22. Jake Peavy, SP
For his own sake, Jake Peavy (1.9 WAR, No. 56 position rank) needs to stay in the National League. See, in parts of six AL seasons, he has a 4.13 ERA and is averaging 7.7 strikeouts every nine innings. In the NL, his ERA is 3.23 and he averages almost nine strikeouts per nine innings.
True, the bulk of those NL numbers came with the San Diego Padres at the beginning of his career, but since his trade to the Giants in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline this season, he is pitching to a 2.17 ERA and a 1.042 WHIP.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs are potential destinations. That said, don’t discount Peavy staying with Bruce Bochy and the Giants.
21. Burke Badenhop, RHP
Pitching for a different club each of the past three seasons, Burke Badenhop (1.0 WAR, No. 36 position rank) has appeared in at least 63 games and has never had an ERA over 3.47. Flat out, he has been one of the most consistent right-handed relievers in MLB.
Set to hit free agency for the first time, Badenhop will draw interest from numerous clubs, some of which could include the Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros.
Nos. 20-16
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20. Nori Aoki, RF
This may come as a surprise to those who don't follow the Kansas City Royals closely, but in 132 games, Nori Aoki (2.6 WAR, No. 35 position rank) managed to score 63 runs and drive in 43 at the top of an inconsistent lineup. He has also been worth a 16.0 defensive rating, which only adds to his value.
There is no doubt that his .349 on-base percentage will be of value to clubs like the Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres, whose leadoff hitters didn’t reach base often enough this past season and are thin in the outfield.
19. Ervin Santana, SP
While he would have preferred for the multiyear contract to have arrived last offseason, Ervin Santana (2.8 WAR, No. 35 position rank) delivered the results he was looking for with the Atlanta Braves. In 31 starts, he went 14-10 with a 3.95 ERA, 3.39 FIP and struck out over eight batters every nine innings.
Expect numerous teams to take a look at Santana, including the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants.
18. Melky Cabrera, LF
A liability in the field, left fielder Melky Cabrera (2.6 WAR, No. 34 position rank) is one heck of a hitter, combining power with speed and savvy situational instincts. If the Toronto Blue Jays fail to retain his services, there will no doubt be several teams interested in signing him to a two- or three-year deal.
One thing to keep in mind with Cabrera is that the Blue Jays could extend a qualifying offer to him, meaning that unless his new team has one of MLB's 10-worst records, it will have to sacrifice a first-round draft pick when it signs him. That could limit interest, but given his production over the past two seasons, he will make any club that gets him better.
17. Brandon McCarthy, SP
Acquired at the beginning of July, Brandon McCarthy (3.0 WAR, No. 32 position rank) did everything he could to help the New York Yankees reach the postseason. In 14 starts in the Bronx, he went 7-5 with a fine 2.89 ERA, 3.22 FIP and 1.151 WHIP and had a sensational 6.31 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The San Diego Padres are one club that should be interested in McCarthy as a No. 3 starter.
16. Hiroki Kuroda, SP
Hiroki Kuroda (3.5 WAR, No. 22 position rank) is another Yankees pitcher who held up his end of the bargain. In 32 starts covering 199.0 innings, he put up a 3.71 ERA and 3.60 FIP and walked only 1.58 batters every nine innings on his way to 11 wins.
While not a No. 1 or a No. 2 starter, he is certainly one of the better options for the middle of the rotation that will be available this offseason. The Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres could all use one of those.
Nos. 15-11
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15. Zach Duke, LHP
After a disastrous 2013 campaign (26 G, 6.03 ERA) left-hander Zach Duke (1.3 WAR, No. 22 position rank) signed a one-year, $850,000 deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. After this season’s dominance (5-1, 2.45 ERA, 2.14 FIP), expect him to sign a multiyear pact to be a primary setup man.
Almost every club could use a lefty who holds right-handed hitters to a .242/.288/.298 slash line against, via Baseball-Reference, but the Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros and Cincinnati Reds are in particular need.
14. Koji Uehara, RHP
Koji Uehura's (1.4 WAR, No. 18 position rank) value is largely based upon everything he did in the major leagues until the All-Star break this season. True, he rebounded nicely over his final three appearances, but a 4.35 ERA and a .813 OPS against in the second half really hurt his value.
There is a chance Uehara doesn’t go anywhere this offseason. As Jason Mastrodonato from MassLive.com recently noted, the “Red Sox have been open about their desire to re-sign the 39-year-old closer,” but if he doesn’t remain with them, a club like the Los Angeles Angels could offer him a one-year deal.
13. Adam LaRoche, 1B
Per a conversation with Mark Zuckerman from NatsInsider.com, Adam LaRoche (1.6 WAR, No. 17 position rank) isn’t confident that a return to the Washington Nationals is in his future. “If you had to ask me now,” LaRoche said, “I would assume that I would have to move on, unfortunately.”
And if true, LaRoche immediately jumps to the top of the list of available first baseman. Numerous clubs could use an upgrade at first, including the Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins.
12. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS/2B
Asdrubal Cabrera (1.7 WAR, No. 13 position rank) increased his value on the open market considerably following his trade to the Washington Nationals this season by proving that he is capable of playing second base in addition to shortstop.
That could be useful to a club like the Toronto Blue Jays that need a second baseman so Brett Lawrie can return to third base. Cabrera struggles to get on base, which will limit his value, but he still has some nice power for the position and is not a liability on the basepaths.
11. Pablo Sandoval, 3B
Pablo Sandoval (3.0 WAR, No. 12 position rank) just missed out on making the top 10. He has the months of April and September to thank for it. According to splits at Baseball-Reference, he put up a .177/.262/.302 slash line in April and only slashed out at .218/.274/.276 in September. Otherwise, Sandoval was at the top of his game once again in 2014.
Expect the Boston Red Sox, who were mentioned by John Tomase from the Boston Herald, and the New York Yankees, among other teams, to make a run at Sandoval. Also expect the San Francisco Giants to make him a qualifying offer.
10. James Shields
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Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore got everything he hoped he would out of James Shields (3.7 WAR, No. 19 position rank) this season.
In 34 starts, Shields put up a 14-8 record with a 3.21 ERA, 3.59 FIP and 1.181 WHIP and had a 4.09 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He also logged over 200 innings for the eighth season in a row.
More importantly, he proved up to the task of leading the Royals rotation into the postseason, which is something he did three times while still with the Tampa Bay Rays. Unfortunately for him, he has company in free agency this winter with Jon Lester and Max Scherzer, likely limiting his value to some degree.
As far as destinations for Shields in free agency, the Boston Red Sox are mentioned frequently, and they have scouted Shields heavily, including his start Sept. 20, per a tweet from Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. All told, none of the Red Sox’s rookie pitchers stepped up this season, and their rotation is full of question marks.
The Texas Rangers are another club that will have interest in Shields, according to Evan Grant from The Dallas Morning News. “I think,” Grant wrote earlier this month, “the Rangers might prefer Shields because they might be able to get him on a shorter (three or four-year deal) than” Lester or Scherzer.
And we cannot overlook the New York Yankees. General manager Brian Cashman always seems to be in the mix for the top free-agent starting pitchers.
9. Chase Headley
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You read that right. Third baseman Chase Headley (4.2 WAR, No. 7 position rank) checks in at No. 9. Acquired from the San Diego Padres prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline for Yangervis Solarte and Rafael De Paula, Headley has proved his worth with the New York Yankees.
In 191 at-bats for manager Joe Girardi’s club, he hit .262 with a .371 on-base percentage and slugged .398. Each of those metrics is a marked improvement over what he was putting up with the Padres prior to getting dealt.
Now, it must be noted that he isn’t the same kind of hitter that Pablo Sandoval is. There really isn’t a comparison. Hitting isn’t the only measure of a third baseman this season, however, and Headley is far and away the best defensive third baseman in MLB, per FanGraphs.
While he won’t demand a long-term contract given his offensive inconsistencies and injury history over the past two seasons, there are several teams in need of a third baseman. The Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants (should they lose Sandoval) and Boston Red Sox come to mind. Then again, he may end up staying with the Yankees.
Either way, look for Headley to be signed after Sandoval as clubs weigh their options carefully.
8. Max Scherzer
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Max Scherzer (5.6 WAR, No. 7 position rank) rolled the dice during spring training this year when he turned down a six-year contract extension that Jon Paul Morosi from Fox Sports reported was worth $144 million from the Detroit Tigers.
The idea was that he would be able to demonstrate that what he did in 2013, when he went 21-3 with a 3.15 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 0.970 WHIP and collected 240 strikeouts in 214.1 innings pitched en route to the Cy Young Award, “was no flash in the pan,” per Matthew B. Mowery from The Oakland Press.
His decision proved to be a shrewd one.
In 33 starts, he went 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.175 WHIP. True, those numbers would seem to be regressions, but his 2.84 FIP tells a different story, and he struck out 252 in 220.1 innings.
Either way, Scherzer is on the verge of signing a contract that will make him one of the richest men in MLB.
Now, every team in the game would covet a pitcher with Scherzer’s pedigree, but the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and possibly the St. Louis Cardinals seem to top the list of clubs with the financial means to assume the contractual obligation.
Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal made a good point recently about Scherzer’s agent, Scott Boras, dragging the negotiations out until a team meets his contract demands. And, as usually happens, expect a surprise team to emerge.
7. Andrew Miller
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Left-hander Andrew Miller (2.3 WAR, No. 6 position rank) is by far the best reliever available based on raw statistics. The fact that he improved in almost every metric imaginable following his trade to the Baltimore Orioles at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline didn’t hurt.
Consider: Prior to getting dealt, he had a 2.34 ERA, 1.69 FIP and 0.898 WHIP and was striking out 14.7 batters every nine innings. After the trade, he put up a 1.35 ERA, 1.13 FIP, 0.600 WHIP and collected 15.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
Any way it’s looked at, Miller is the epitome of what a club wants out of a lefty.
Now, the team that would seem to be the best fit for Miller based on need is the Detroit Tigers. They have had a hard time in the bullpen this season.
In addition to the Tigers, the Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees also figure to weigh in with contract offers. And let’s not overlook the possibility that he returns to the Red Sox or stays with the Orioles.
Either way, Miller is the only elite reliever available this winter.
6. Hanley Ramirez
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Hanley Ramirez (3.3 WAR, No. 7 position rank) is undoubtedly one of the best offensive shortstops in the game.
Over his 10-year career, he has 191 home runs, 654 RBI and 303 doubles and is slashing out at .300/.373/.500. This past season, he had a .283/.369/.448 slash line with 13 home runs, 71 RBI and 35 doubles and scored 64 runs for the NL West champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
For as good as he is, though, it’s debatable that he’s worth more than the $16 million he made in 2014, yet that is exactly what he is sure to be asking for.
Now, for him to get that kind of money, a move to the American League appears to be in order. After all, Ramirez is on the other side of 30 now, and there is only so much longer that he can stay at shortstop before his already porous defense becomes impossible to tolerate.
One option for Ramirez is the New York Yankees, who are now without a viable option at shortstop thanks to Derek Jeter’s retirement. That is not to say that general manager Brian Cashman is going to sink an exorbitant amount of money in his replacement, but there is certainly a need there.
Another option is the Baltimore Orioles. That is, of course, only if they lose J.J. Hardy to free agency. Another thing to consider is that Ramirez’s ability at the plate could help offset the loss of Chris Davis should he not be retained.
5. J.J. Hardy
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After largely staying out of the headlines this season, shortstop J.J. Hardy (3.3 WAR, No. 6 position ranking) has emerged as a hot name as the playoffs get underway.
To be sure, a lot of the exposure is due to some comments he made last week about his future, specifically about the possibility that he could end up being Derek Jeter’s replacement.
While adding that he would prefer to stay with the Baltimore Orioles, "Hardy said he would listen if [the New York Yankees] called," according to Dan Martin from the New York Post. Flat out, he said that he was “wide open” to any and all possibilities should he not be with the Orioles.
The Yankees aren’t the only club that will need a shortstop. The Los Angeles Dodgers could use one if Hanley Ramirez ends up on a different team.
The New York Mets are also in a spot at short.
As Jasper Scherer from MLB Daily Dish noted in an article regarding another player, Mets shortstop “Wilmer Flores (career .292/.334/.440 hitter in seven minor league seasons) has gotten off to a very slow start since he was called up to the majors last season, and their next best option, prospect Amed Rosario, was demoted to Low-A earlier this season.”
First things first. The Orioles need to make a decision. If he’s not brought back, you can bet that Hardy is going to have his pick of destinations.
4. Jon Lester
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The 2014 season has been a curious one for Oakland A’s starting pitcher Jon Lester (6.1 WAR, No. 6 position rank).
He started off with the Boston Red Sox amid high expectations following a 2013 World Series championship. Unfortunately, the Red Sox fell on their heads, and he was sent to the A’s along with Jonny Gomes in exchange for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes.
Lester ended up being one of the few bright spots as the A’s continued to struggle, finally clinching the second wild-card spot with a 4-0 victory over the Texas Rangers on the final day of the regular season. And let’s not forget, they were in first place in the AL West by 1.5 games at the All-Star break, before ultimately finishing 10.0 games behind the Los Angeles Angels.
Through it all, Lester remained up to the task, giving him a statistical edge over Max Scherzer in the derby for the best starting pitcher available this offseason. In 32 starts this season, he is 16-11 with a 2.46 ERA, 2.80 FIP 1.102 WHIP and 4.58 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
With the exception of the last metric, each of those statistics is better than the numbers Scherzer put up.
The club that is frequently mentioned as a landing sport for Lester is the Chicago Cubs. They have been mentioned by CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine, ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers and Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, among others.
3. Russell Martin
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If you are of the belief that Russell Martin (5.2 WAR, No. 3 position rank) isn’t an elite catcher, think again.
Among catchers, he finished the 2014 season with the highest on-base percentage (.402), the second-highest wRC+ (140) and ranked third in both offensive rating (19.3) and defensive rating (14.8), per splits over at FanGraphs.
True, he missed almost a month with a hamstring injury, but that hasn’t stopped him from compiling his 5.2 WAR. In fact, an argument can be made that he may have had the highest WAR on the Pittsburgh Pirates had he not hit the disabled list.
Either way, the Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers could all use someone with Martin’s skill set. The Cubs, in particular, have been the subject of recent speculation.
Gordon Wittenmyer from the Chicago Sun-Times recently wrote that Martin would be a fine addition to the 25-man roster. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) also weighed in on the right-handed hitter's future and mentioned the Cubs as a possible fit.
The Pirates aren’t guaranteed to lose Martin, of course. After all, “general manager Neal Huntington said the club is prepared to ‘stretch beyond our normal comfort zone’” in order to keep Martin, according to Travis Sawchik from TribLive.com.
2. Nelson Cruz
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Nelson Cruz (3.9 WAR, No. 2 position rank) has played his way into a nice contract. Whether it is with the Baltimore Orioles or another club is the only question that must be answered.
First, the stats.
In 159 games, Cruz compiled a .271/.333/.525 slash line with 32 doubles and 108 RBI and led all of MLB with 40 home runs. True, he cooled off a bit in the season’s second half, but he was well worth the $8 million contract he signed last offseason after turning down a qualifying offer from the Texas Rangers.
And for any club that is looking to add immense power from the designated hitter position, Cruz is the man.
Two teams that were mentioned by Nick Cafardo from The Boston Globe are the New York Yankees and the Texas Rangers. To be sure, almost every club needs the power Cruz provides, but he will likely end up with a franchise that has plenty of money and is not afraid of adding an extra year to his contract.
It must be noted that toward the end of August, Cruz made it clear that his preference is to stay right where he is, per MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli. We shall see what general manager Dan Duquette has up his sleeve, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Orioles come through with an offer that keeps Cruz with the club before he is declared a free agent.
1. Victor Martinez
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Designated hitter Victor Martinez (4.4 WAR, No. 1 position rank) is probably the best designated hitter the game has seen in some time. Not the most prolific from a power perspective, mind you, but the best all-around hitter.
Don’t take that last statement the wrong way. The 32 home runs he hit this year is impressive, but it’s the only time he’s hit more than 25 in any one year, and he has never finished a season with more than 40 doubles.
That said, his approach at the plate has led to a batting average better than .300 each of his last five seasons, notwithstanding the 2012 campaign that he missed following surgery to repair a torn ACL.
Another thing that makes the switch-hitter so valuable is that his career slash lines from both sides of the plate are almost identical. In 1,333 games against right-handed pitchers, he has a .307/.372/.469 slash line, and against lefties, it is .305/.375/.488 in 870 contests, per splits at Baseball-Reference.
Among the clubs already showing interest are the Chicago White Sox, who have been mentioned by numerous columnists around the game, including CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine. The White Sox’s pursuit of Martinez makes sense given the lack of protection behind Jose Abreu.
Then again, the Detroit Tigers are going to do everything they can to keep him. To that end, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney recently noted that “rival executives” don’t think there is any way that general manager Dave Dombrowski lets Martinez leave the Motor City.
We shall see.
Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and historical statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com. Contract information pulled from Cots Contracts.
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