Highlighting the 12 Biggest Heroes of the 2014 MLB Pennant Races
When things get tight at the end of the MLB season, some players show up and guide their teams into the playoffs.
Last season, it was right-hander Michael Wacha, who joined the St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation in early September and subsequently became one of the biggest stories of the postseason, as the rookie took home NLCS MVP honors and pitched his team into the World Series.
Meanwhile, right-hander Gerrit Cole was just as dominant for the Pittsburgh Pirates last season, as the flame-throwing rookie solidified the starting rotation down the stretch and played a major role in his club’s long-overdue postseason berth.
But those are just a couple of unique examples. The reality is that every team fighting for a playoff spot likely has its share of heroes.
As we head into the final weekend of the regular season, here’s a look at the 12 biggest heroes of the 2014 MLB pennant races.
12. Lance Lynn, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
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2014 Overall Stats: 32 GS, 15-10 197.2 IP, 2.73 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.23 BB/9, 8.01 K/9, 3.3 fWAR
Second Half Stats: 13 GS, 5-4, 83 IP, 2.17 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 3.14 BB/9, 8.13 K/9, 1.5 fWAR
Lance Lynn suffered a second-half collapse in 2012, and last year, he was incredibly mediocre following the All-Star break. But this season has been a different story for Lynn, as the 27-year-old's numbers have been markedly better in the second half.
Adam Wainwright paces all Cardinal starters with eight wins since the All-Star break, but Lynn leads the club in almost every other notable pitching metric, including ERA (2.17), FIP (3.14) and strikeouts per nine innings (8.13 K/9). Meanwhile, his 1.5 fWAR during the second half is tops among Cardinal pitchers.
The right-hander is riding a streak of eight consecutive quality starts, and he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start in nearly three months (the last time was June 28).
Barring an unforeseen occurrence, Lynn should begin the postseason as the Cardinals’ No. 2 starter behind Wainwright.
11. Matt Shoemaker, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
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2014 Overall Stats: 27 G/20 GS, 16-4, 136 IP, 3.04 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 1.59 BB/9, 8.21 K/9, 2.1 fWAR
Second Half Stats: 12 G/11 GS, 9-2, 72.1 IP, 1.87 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 1.12 BB/9, 7.71 K/9, 2.1 fWAR
Matt Shoemaker very quietly has put together a spectacular breakout campaign for the Los Angeles Angels, and he was a big reason the team’s playoff dreams didn’t die following the season-ending injury to ace Garrett Richards.
Shoemaker went 6-1 in August, allowing just six earned runs in 41.1 innings—good for a 1.31 ERA. He also posted a 0.77 WHIP, allowing 26 hits and only six walks against 38 strikeouts. The 27-year-old right-hander led all AL pitchers in ERA (minimum 27 innings), and his .178 opponents’ batting average was the sixth-best mark in the league.
Shoemaker owns a 9-2 record since the All-Star break and has pitched to a 1.87 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, with 62 strikeouts and just nine walks over 72.1 innings. Furthermore, it’s now been over two months since he allowed more than three earned runs in a start.
10. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2014 Overall Stats: 594 PA, .284/.343/.498, 24 HR, 86 RBI, 8.8% BB%, 24.4% K%, 137 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR
Second Half Stats: 231 PA, .303/.360/.589, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 8.9% BB%, 22.5% K%, 164 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR
Matt Kemp hit just .269 with eight home runs in 305 plate appearances during the first half of the season, and he seemed destined to turn in another disappointing campaign.
However, the 30-year-old’s bat came to life shortly after the All-Star break, when manager Don Mattingly officially moved Kemp from center to right field. Though his uptick in production can only be speculatively linked to the position change, there’s certainly something to be said for Kemp’s .306/.363/.604 batting line, 16 home runs, 16 doubles and 50 RBI in 59 games as a right fielder.
Kemp’s really discovered his power stroke as of late, as 14 of his 26 hits in September have gone for extra-bases (eight home runs, six doubles), translating to a .665 slugging percentage over his last 90 plate appearances.
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9. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Washington Nationals
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2014 Overall Stats: 31 GS, 13-5, 190.2 IP, 2.78 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 1.32 BB/9, 8.12 K/9, 4.7 fWAR
Second Half Stats: 12 GS, 7-0, 77.2 IP, 2.43 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 0.93 BB/9, 8.23 K/9, 1.9 fWAR
After a modest start to the season, Jordan Zimmermann has returned to his usual ace-caliber form during the second half, with an unblemished 7-0 record in 12 starts and an impressive 2.73 FIP—the 12th best mark in MLB during the span.
The Nationals have won 10 of the last 11 games started by Zimmermann, while the 28-year-old right-hander has pitched to an excellent 2.11 ERA and 65-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 72.2 innings.
The rest of the team’s starters have gradually picked up the pace around Zimmermann down the stretch—save for Tanner Roark, who has been superb this season in the rotation—and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get the ball in Game 1 of the NLDS.
8. Lorenzo Cain, OF, Kansas City Royals
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2014 Overall Stats: 491 PA, .304/.342/.417, 5 HR, 51 RBI, 27 SB, 4.9% BB%, 21.6% K%, 113 wRC+, 4.6 fWAR
Second Half Stats: 213 PA, .302/.343/.407, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 15 SB, 5.6% BB%, 23.0% K%, 112 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
It may have taken a bit longer than expected, but Lorenzo Cain is finally having the breakout campaign the Royals envisioned when they traded for him prior to the 2011 season.
The 28-year-old has swiped a career-high 27 bases this season to go along with his best batting average since he batted .306 over 43 games as a rookie in 2010.
Plus, Cain has sustained his success over the course of the season while shifting between the No. 1 and No. 3 spots in the Royals batting order. As the team’s leadoff hitter, Cain has batted .284 with nine runs, eight RBI and a .327 on-base percentage. When batting third in the order, he has raked to the tune of a .356/.408/.489 batting line over 49 plate appearances.
Cain’s first- and second-half production has been almost identical, while his stellar defense between center field and right field has saved the Royals 21 runs.
7. Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
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2014 Overall Stats: 660 PA, .274/.370/.444, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 10.8% BB%, 15.0% K%, 132 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR
Second Half Stats: 231 PA, .286/.365/.524, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 8.5% K%, 15.8% K%, 152 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
After a disappointing first half of the season, Matt Holliday has hit .286/.365/.524 with 14 home runs and 45 RBI since the All-Star break, helping propel the Cardinals to first place in the NL Central division and resuscitating what had been one of the worst offenses in baseball.
Holliday’s 2.1 fWAR during the second half has him tied with Jhonny Peralta for highest on the team, while his 2.56 WPA (win probability added) ranks second among all big league hitters behind Buster Posey.
The 34-year-old left fielder apparently left something in the tank for the Cardinals' playoff push too; Holliday is currently enjoying his best statistical month of the season, with a .310/.376/.512 batting line, four home runs and 12 RBI over 93 plate appearance in September.
6. Denard Span, OF, Washington Nationals
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2014 Overall Stats: 658 PA, .300/.353/.414, 93 R, 31 SB, 7.4% BB%, 9.9% K%, 116 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR
Second Half Stats: 274 PA, .343/.399/.456, 36 R, 16 SB, 8.0% BB%, 9.1% K%, 142 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR
A (very) strong case can be made for Anthony Rendon as the Nationals’ 2014 MVP. But in terms of individual performances during the second half, no Nats hitter has been more consistent than center fielder Denard Span.
Span got off to a slow start this season, batting just .269/.319/.385 with 95 hits and 57 runs in 84 games before the All-Star break. However, he’s turned things around in a huge way during the second half, highlighted by a team-leading 85 hits and 16 stolen bases.
Lastly, Span’s 2.4 fWAR during the second half ranks second on the team behind Anthony Rendon (2.5 fWAR).
5. Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City Royals
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2014 Overall Stats: 633 PA, .267/.351/.432, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 12 SB, 10.0% BB%, 19.6% K%, 121 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR
Second Half Stats: 265 PA, .265/.355/.443, 10 HR, 30 RBI, 6 SB, 10.6% BB%, 23.4% K%, 124 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR
Alex Gordon has very quietly been one of the best players in baseball this year. The 30-year-old enters Friday tied for the eighth-best fWAR (6.0) among all major league hitters. The impressive total is largely a product of his tremendous defense in left field (27 defensive runs saved), but he’s also turned in another strong performance at the plate.
Yes, Gordon has been mired in a slump for most of September. However, he’s also one of the main reasons the Royals are on the verge of clinching their first postseason berth in 29 years.
Since the All-Star break, Gordon is leading the Royals in runs scored (38) and home runs (10), while his 30 RBI during that span is second only to catcher Salvador Perez.
4. Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2014 Overall Stats: 532 PA, .293/.359/.456, 13 HR, 56 RBI, 29 SB, 6.2% BB%, 24.1% K%, 134 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR
Second Half Stats: 193 PA, .356/.420/.586, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 8 SB, 6.2% BB%, 17.6% K%, 187 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR
Starling Marte’s .356 batting average and 1.006 OPS since the All-Star break ranks first among hitters with at least 170 plate appearances, while his 2.7 fWAR has him tied for the sixth-highest total during that timeframe.
The 25-year-old left fielder has been especially hot during the season’s final month, as he’s helped guide the Pittsburgh Pirates to a 15-6 record in September with a .385/.429/.615 batting line, four home runs, six doubles and 12 RBI in 84 plate appearances spanning 21 games.
On top of that, Marte heads into the final weekend of the season riding a 10-game hitting streak, during which he’s batted .375 with four extra-base hits and three stolen bases.
3. Josh Harrison, UTIL, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2014 Overall Stats: 537 PA, .319/.350/.496, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 17 SB, 4.1% BB%, 14.7% K%, 139 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR
Second Half Stats: 272 PA, .340/.365/.541, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 8 SB, 3.3% BB%, 15.1% K%, 156 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR
Josh Harrison opened the season viewed as a useful bench piece, but now there’s a realistic chance that he’ll claim the NL batting title. He’s been a model of consistency for the Pirates throughout the season, but it’s been the 27-year-old’s strong second half that’s helped push his team into the playoffs for the second straight year.
Only Kemp has as many extra-base hits (33) as Harrison since the Midsummer Classic, though Harrison does have a slight edge over Kemp in the total bases department (140).
Meanwhile, Harrison’s numbers are even more impressive considering he's posted them while bouncing between third base, left field, right field, second base and shortstop this year.
2. Buster Posey, C/1B, San Francisco Giants
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2014 Overall Stats: 603 PA, .310/.363/.484, 21 HR, 87 RBI, 7.8% BB%, 11.3% K%, 142 wRC+, 5.7 fWAR
Second Half Stats: 261 PA, .353/.402/.563, 11 HR, 41 RBI, 7.7% BB%, 10.7% K%, 178 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR.
To put it simply, Buster Posey has been the best player in the NL since the All-Star break.
On July 12th, Posey was batting .278/.335/.417 with nine home runs. However, he got back on track during San Francisco’s final game before the All-Star break, connecting for a grand slam against Vidal Nuno.
Posey has been playing out of his mind since then, producing a robust .353/.402/.563 batting line with 11 home runs and 13 doubles over his last 261 plate appearances. Beyond that, Posey’s 178 wRC+ during that span is 12 percent better than the next-best qualified NL hitter, while his 3.6 fWAR is over a half-win better than Josh Harrison’s 3.0.
Lastly, Posey is enjoying his best month of the season when his team needs him the most, batting .390/.435/.573 with three homers, six doubles and 16 RBI over his last 22 games.
1. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2014 Overall Stats: 27 GS, 21-3, 198.1 IP, 1.77 ERA, 1.81 FIP, 1.41 BB/9, 10.85 K/9, 7.2 fWAR
Second Half Stats: 13 GS, 10-1, 102 IP, 1.76 ERA, 2.01 FIP, 1.59 BB/9, 9.97 K/9, 3.6 fWAR
Where does one even begin when extolling the virtues of Clayton Kershaw?
Winner of his final seven starts, Kershaw finished the season with an MLB-best 21 wins and 1.77 ERA, and he also paced the NL with 239 strikeouts. The 26-year-old left-hander’s ERA title will be his fourth in as many years—a new MLB record, per MLB.com.
Kershaw also led the NL in FIP (2.01) and xFIP (2.44) during the second half of the season, and he generated 1.3 more wins than the league’s next-best pitcher (Jake Arrieta, 2.3 fWAR). Additionally, the southpaw completed at least eight innings and recorded at least eight strikeouts in 10 of his 13 starts after the All-Star break.
Beyond Kershaw’s perpetually growing list of achievements and accolades, the Dodgers simply tend to play their best with their ace on the hill, evidenced by the team’s 23-4 record in 27 starts.
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