Week 4 NFL Picks: Examining the Trends and Line Movements
One of the best parts of following betting lines in the NFL is seeing which way the money is going. Oddsmakers list games early based on what they think bettors are going to do, then shift lines as a result of what happens.
In many ways, the odds follow the fickle nature of our own analysis. The NFL is all about overreacting to what we just saw, so you're never going to find any two people who think the same way about a team.
Two weeks ago, no one would have told you the New York Giants were a playoff team. Now, after two straight wins and Eli Manning throwing the ball like he did during those two Super Bowl runs, they are going to challenge Philadelphia for a division title.
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It's why we love the NFL and why the lines are always worth watching. We are going to examine the latest lines for this week's games and look at how things have shifted and the trends for the biggest games of the weekend.
| Matchup | Pick |
| Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) | Ravens, 24-20 |
| Green Bay Packers (-1) at Chicago Bears | Packers, 27-24 |
| Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3) | Bills, 20-17 |
| Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-9) | Colts, 27-17 |
| Detroit Lions at New York Jets (Pick 'Em) | Jets, 24-23 |
| Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Oakland Raiders | Dolphins, 21-16 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) | Steelers, 27-23 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-14) | Chargers, 37-17 |
| Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Minnesota Vikings | Falcons, 27-24 |
| Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5) | Eagles, 28-24 |
| New Orleans Saints (-3) at Dallas Cowboys | Saints, 34-28 |
| New England Patriots (-3) at Kansas City Chiefs | Patriots, 21-17 |
Trends and Shifts
Green Bay Packers (-1) at Chicago Bears
When Aaron Rodgers has to come out and tell everyone to relax about Green Bay's 1-2 start, in which the team is averaging 18 points per game, why are oddsmakers making the 2-1 Chicago Bears underdogs?
If you look at the recent history of this rivalry, the picture comes into focus. The Packers are 10-2 against the Bears when Rodgers is under center all 60 minutes, including Week 17 last year that ended with the former MVP hitting Randall Cobb for a last-second touchdown and NFC North title.
Even though the Bears are winning games and the defense hasn't fallen apart yet, there are reasons to be concerned that an implosion is coming. Offensively, they are the worst running team in the league and are averaging just 300 yards per game.
Despite having big-play weapons like Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery and one of the strongest arms in the NFL, Jay Cutler has been more conservative than ever. He's averaging a career-low 6.20 yards per attempt, but the good news is that's limited his turnovers, with no interceptions the last two weeks.
Rodgers and Cutler have both had individual success in this matchup, according to NFL Stats on Twitter:
Going back to the Bears and turnovers, they've forced seven in the last two games. It's hard to lose a lot of games when you are creating extra opportunities and a short field for the offense, so credit them for taking advantage of those.
However, that's going to be a problem this week because the Packers don't give the ball away. They've got three turnovers in three games this season.
Looking at trends for these two teams, the over/under has been set at 50 for the game. Take the over without hesitation because the Packers have gone over in five of their last seven games, and the Bears have gone over in six of their last seven games.
The spread hasn't been kind to the Packers, who are 2-9-2 in the last 13 games. With just a one-point split in this game, that suggests the Bears are going to come out on top, except they are 7-16-1 against the spread in their last 24 games.
Can you tell why people drive themselves insane trying to figure out how to bet NFL games? This has all the makings of a trap game for the Bears, who are riding high after two big road wins. You have to figure Green Bay's offense will get going at some point, so why not against the worst defense it's played so far.
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5)
There are still 12 games to play this weekend, but no line is more fascinating than Philadelphia being a five-point underdog going to San Francisco. This feels like the oddsmakers giving the 49ers one more chance to be the team we have known them to be for the last three years.
It's also plausible that we have overreacted to San Francisco's slow start. We will find an answer, one way or another, on Sunday. The 49ers are maddening to watch because you can still see glimmers of what's made them great in the Jim Harbaugh era.
The offense has gotten off to faster starts than any other team in football, scoring 59 points in the first half. Colin Kaepernick has done a much better job spreading the ball around this season, as the 49ers ended Week 3 as the only team to have three players with at least 13 receptions and 150 yards, via Taylor Price and Dan Beckler of 49ers.com:
There are still mistakes being made by Kaepernick, as evidenced by that four-turnover game against Chicago, but the passing game looks more effective this season than it has at any point under Harbaugh.
Unfortunately, it's come at the expense of their identity as a power-run team. Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde have a total of 49 carries through three games. That's not how the 49ers are going to win games, which is a part of why they are 1-2.
The Eagles have been the Yang to San Francisco's Yin. Chip Kelly's team has closed games better than anyone in the NFL, outscoring opponents by a combined score of 74-24, according to John Clark of Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia:
If those trends hold through this game, the Eagles will be flying high and the questions about Harbaugh losing the 49ers will get louder than ever.
As for the trends, whether you think the 49ers will win or not, they are just 1-4 in their last five home games against the spread. The Eagles are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games. An over/under of 50.5 doesn't help anyone because the Eagles have gone over in six of their last eight games, and the 49ers have gone under in five of their last six games.
Until we see some evidence that the 49ers are capable of scoring points in the second half and avoiding 15-yard personal-foul penalties that keep drives alive for the opposition, you can't expect them to win a game right now.
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Dallas Cowboys
If there's a trap game in Week 4, it's New Orleans and Dallas. We keep waiting to see the best version of the Saints and wondering where the Cowboys we were expecting to see before the season are. Neither one has happened yet, so something has to give on Sunday night, right?
Not exactly. The Saints are a terrible road team. They have lost seven of their last 10 games away from the Superdome since the start of 2013, including two crushing defeats against Atlanta and Cleveland this season.
The last time these two teams met, the Saints set an NFL record with 40 first downs and outgained the Cowboys, 625-193, in a 49-17 romp. Dallas' offense has looked much different this year with a greater commitment to the run. DeMarco Murray leads the NFL with 385 rushing yards on 75 carries.
The Cowboys will have to control the clock to win this game, because even with the return of Orlando Scandrick to the starting lineup, they don't have the secondary to cover all of Drew Brees' toys.
Jimmy Graham is going to be the biggest problem for the Cowboys, who have struggled to cover tight ends all season, according to Charean Williams of The Forth Worth Star-Telegram:
It's not like the Saints are a defensive juggernaut, allowing the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL, but that does make them more appealing. The strength of Rob Ryan's defense this year has been stopping the run, which means they can force Tony Romo to beat them.
When the Cowboys have asked Romo to do a lot this season, he threw three interceptions on three straight possessions against San Francisco and had another interception returned for a touchdown against St. Louis. In Dallas' two wins, he's thrown the ball a total of 52 times. In the one loss, he had 37 attempts.
The Saints want to make Romo beat them because Dallas' offense is at its best when Murray is running the ball at the defense.
Even though these are two teams known for their offensive prowess, you'll want to go under the 54 points oddsmakers have set the total at. The total has been under in nine of the Saints' last 12 games, while the total has been under in four of the Cowboys' last six home games.
We have to see the best version of New Orleans soon, so what better place to do it than in prime time against Dallas?
Note: Betting trend notes via Odds Shark.
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