2015 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook for Week 4

With the NFL heading into Week 4, draft season is in the very near future for many fans. With NFL scouts on the road, college teams getting into the heart of their schedules and NFL teams starting to show their weaknesses, it's always important to keep at least one eye on the upcoming 2015 NFL draft.

Each Friday you'll get a look inside my scouting notebook with this article. You'll find rumors, notes, analysis and updates on which players are moving up and down my personal draft board. Hopefully you'll learn a thing or two along the way, too.

The Scout's Report

— In talking to people around the league, the general belief on how the Jacksonville Jaguars can best improve, as summed up by one pro personnel scout, is to "draft defense with every pick they have." Head coach Gus Bradley has a defensive background, but his team is struggling to stop opposing offenses and looks simply outmatched at most positions.

—  Jameis Winston is sure to dominate the headlines until his name is called at the draft, but this week I asked scouts and general managers which NFL team he'd best fit from a scheme perspective:

A. From an NFC scout: "I look immediately at Houston. (Bill) O'Brien loves to throw the ball down the field and would help him mature as a person."

B. An opposing AFC South pro personnel scout: "Tennessee. Look at what (Ken) Whisenhunt did with Philip Rivers' career in 2013."

C. And from an NFC scouting director: "(Chip Kelly) won't put up with his "s--t," but the Eagles would be a great fit for his talent."

— I asked area scouts this week for their take on who the most overrated prospects are at this time. These players were all mentioned at least twice: Sammie Coates (Auburn), La'el Collins (LSU), Andrus Peat (Stanford), Kevin Hogan (Stanford) and Jaelen Strong (Arizona State).

Dean Hare/Associated Press

— What can Marcus Mariota improve on before he's NFL ready? One team executive told me they only worry about "his ability to throw receivers open. Everything else is exactly what we want at the position."

— Amari Cooper has been on fire for Alabama so far this year, so I asked a scout who handles the Southeast about his play. "You have to wonder if A.J. (McCarron) was holding him back there. It definitely helps that (head coach Nick) Saban handed the offense off to Lane (Kiffin). Cooper is the undisputed No. 1 wide receiver right now."

— Another Alabama player is making waves right now, too. Safety Landon Collins is the nation's best safety, and the same area scout told me, "Collins' play vs. Florida shows you that he's the best safety in this class. Hands down."

Five Up, Five Down

Each week, "Five Up, Five Down" will monitor the movements of players on my draft board.

5. DE Vic Beasley, Clemson

A big prime-time matchup between Clemson and Florida State featured two potential first-round picks in left tackle Cam Erving going head-to-head with defensive end Vic Beasley. Beasley won that matchup, and that's why he's on the Five Up side.

Beasley stands up and puts his hand in the dirt for the Clemson defense, and his quickness in space and off the edge makes you think he can excel in a 3-4 defense as an outside linebacker. Beasley isn't the biggest guy (just 6'2", 235 lbs), but his quickness will have NFL scouts drooling come April.

4. RB Tevin Coleman, Indiana

Former Indiana wide receiver Cody Latimer—and my editor Collin McCollough—continued to pester me about taking a look at running back Tevin Coleman. I'm glad they did.

Coleman has the balance and burst to make plays in space, and if you give him a slice of daylight he's going the distance. Coleman's build (a lean, muscular 6'1", 210 lbs) allows him to slide through traffic, but he brings enough power to run through defenders, too.

In a class of very good running backs, Coleman's name is on the rise.

3. WR Kevin White, West Virginia

Kevin White makes this list for a second straight week after continuing to impress as an up-and-coming wide receiver prospect.

White, who transferred to WVU from Lackawanna College in January 2013, has quickly tore up opposing defenses. You can see him still developing as a route-runner, but I love White's ability to make plays in traffic and use his length to run past defenders. White has the size and athletic skill NFL scouts want, he just needs some refinement as a technician.

White is consistently moving up my board, and right now looks like a top-50 pick.

2. WR Amari Cooper, Alabama

The guy Kevin White and every college wide receiver is chasing right now is Alabama's Amari Cooper. 

Through four weeks, Cooper has already bested his 2013 stats in most categories and is making the kind of explosive plays that were missing from his sophomore tape. Cooper's ability to win against coverage or on quick hits and screens on the edge are making him a constant pest for defensive coordinators. Cooper's film against Florida's Vernon Hargreaves—a top 2016 draft prospect—is one scouts will keep going back to.

Year	Games	Catches	Yards	TDs
2014	4	43	655	5
2013	11	45	736	4
2012	14	59	1000	11

With a lack of a top-end senior wide receiver in this year's class, Cooper stands to gain greatly as a junior entry should he decide to jump to the 2015 draft.

1. RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska

A Saturday night matchup against Miami showed again that Ameer Abdullah is the best senior running back in the nation.

Abdullah has the balance, vision and speed to have a smooth transition to the NFL. He's a fit in a zone or man blocking scheme, too, and has shown this year the total-field ability to be a pro running back. Too many college players want to attack the edge consistently, but Abdullah finds his holes and attacks without becoming an "edge-runner" only.

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1. RB Karlos Williams, Florida State

Karlos Williams is listed at 6'1", 229 pounds by Florida State. With measurables like that, you'd expect him to be a bruising power runner. And sometimes he is, but every time I watch the Seminoles play I leave wanting more from Williams.

The lack of broken tackles or yards after contact are surprising given Williams' size and skill set—and without great agility or breakaway speed, he becomes a power back without great power.

2. QB Devin Gardner, Michigan

There was a time when Devin Gardner was looked at as a potential NFL quarterback prospect. Now his status as a starting quarterback in college is in jeopardy.

Gardner is a fantastic athlete, but has never consistently shown quarterback abilities in the Michigan offense. Like his predecessor, Denard Robinson, Gardner's best chance at the NFL would be with a position change to wide receiver or safety.

3. OT Cam Erving, Florida State

The other side of the FSU vs. Clemson edge matchup was left tackle Cam Erving—and he was on the losing side of the competition consistently.

As a pass protector for a first-time starter at quarterback due to Jameis Winston's suspension, Erving struggled to contain Vic Beasley off the edge. Beasley, who is listed at just 235 pounds, dominated with speed, agility and even power at the point of attack. All in  all, it was a bad night for Erving's stock as a left tackle in the NFL.

4. QB Jeff Driskel, Florida

Flash back to last year at this time and I had Jeff Driskel in my notes as a potential NFL starting quarterback prospect. Then he played, and his 2013 season went in a fast downward spiral. What we've seen thus far in 2014 is no different.

Driskel is a good athlete and a capable playmaker at times, but his lack of consistency, mechanics and accuracy makes him more of an athlete than a true quarterback. As a passer, he doesn't show the tools to be an NFL starter.

5. CB Vernon Hargreaves, Florida

It's a rule of mine to not evaluate players before they are draft eligible. But in the case of Florida's Vernon Hargreaves, I had to watch him as part of my Amari Cooper evaluation. What I saw was not good, especially given the hype surrounding the true sophomore.

Hargreaves played with three NFL defensive backs (Loucheiz Purifoy, Marcus Roberson and Jaylen Watkins) last season and the film showed him having the best instincts and most upside. But he was worked against Alabama, with Cooper handling him easily in true man-to-man situations.

With at least one more season ahead of him before he's draft eligible, Hargreaves needs to put up enough positive film to make scouts forget this game.

Scouting Report: Eric Kendricks, UCLA

Throughout the 2014 college football season, one senior draft prospect will be highlighted each week with a first-look scouting report.

Inside Linebacker, UCLA (6'0", 230 lbs)

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Strengths

• Very quick to read and react once the ball is in play.
• A smooth mover with the lateral agility to slide and make plays outside the tackle box.
• Isn't overly strong, but has the strength to make tackles in traffic.
• Uses his eyes well and can identify plays on the go.
• In coverage, shows smooth hips and feet to turn and run.
• Football IQ and character are high-level.
• Has the skills to be a solid A-gap blitzer.
• Has the look of a starting middle linebacker in the NFL. 

Weaknesses

• Doesn't fit the ideal mold of an NFL inside linebacker's build.
• Can get washed down if blockers get into his pads.
• Needs to learn to use his hands to disengage from blocks against the run.
• Surrounded by talent that may enable his playmaking.
• Makes a lot of tackles downfield as opposed to stepping up to make plays.

Pro Player Comparison: Mason Foster, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Scouting Dictionary

"Shade Technique"

Imagine an NFL offensive line. In the middle we have the center, flanked by two guards and two tackles on the edge of the line. On defense, if there are two tackles lining up on either side of the center, they are playing what is called the "shade" technique.

The "shade" means the tackle isn't lined up directly in front of the center, but is "shading" his side. You can call a strong-side or weak-side shade to alert the tackles to which player should line up in the shade while the other tackle generally lines up in a 1- or-3-technique. 

B/R Design

But as a rule of thumb, any time you hear a "shade technique" is being played, it means the defensive tackle is lined up off the shoulder of the center.

The Big Board

With three weeks of the NFL season in the books, here is what the draft order for the first round would look like if the season ended today.

Pick	Team	Record	SOS
1	Tampa Bay	0-3	0.531%
2	Jacksonville	0-3	0.540
3	Oakland	0-3	0.542
4	Washington	1-3	0.520
5	Minnesota	1-2	0.469
6	Miami	1-2	0.479
7	Tennessee	1-2	0.480
8	Kansas City	1-2	0.500
9	New York Jets	1-2	0.520
10	Indianapolis	1-2	0.520
11	St. Louis	1-2	0.520
12	New Orleans	1-2	0.521
13	Cleveland	1-2	0.521
14	Green Bay	1-2	0.542
15	San Francisco	1-2	0.560
16	New York Giants	2-2	0.540
17	San Diego	2-1	0.438
18	Houston	2-1	0.440
19	Chicago	2-1	0.458
20	Cleveland (from Buffalo)	2-1	0.458
21	New England	2-1	0.479
22	Pittsburgh	2-1	0.479
23	Denver	2-1	0.479
24	Detroit	2-1	0.490
25	Dallas	2-1	0.500
26	Baltimore	2-1	0.500
27	Atlanta	2-1	0.510
28	Seattle	2-1	0.520
29	Carolina	2-1	0.521
30	Philadelphia	3-0	0.462
31	Cincinnati	3-0	0.479
32	Arizona	3-0	0.500

Parting Shots

10. This is something you'll see me mention on Twitter, but I absolutely love being wrong about players when they outperform my expectations. Buffalo offensive tackle Seantrel Henderson and Carolina wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin are both playing great right now—and playing well above where I ranked them.

Henderson (No. 130 overall player) was a seventh-round-pick of the Bills and is playing like a future Pro Bowler. Benjamin (No. 74 overall player) was a first-rounder, but with the note that he needed work to succeed in the pros. Both players carried the fine print that if it clicked for them in the pros, they could be great. And through three weeks, that looks to be the case.

9. The Miami Dolphins traded up in the 2013 draft to select Dion Jordan out of Oregon with the No. 3 overall pick. To date, that pick has produced 19 tackles and two sacks—plus a four-game-suspension. 

It's too early to call Jordan a bust, but this is the downside to drafting for potential. For every Benjamin or Cam Newton, you have the Dion Jordans who don't live up to their high ceilings. Come draft season, you'll see me talk about "low floor, high ceiling" players, and Jordan was one. Sure, he has potential greatness, but if he never reaches that potential, who is he? 

For Jordan, he's a third defensive end who looks completely out of place in the NFL. 

8. The Cleveland Browns traded up one spot in the 2012 NFL draft to select running back Trent Richardson. The Indianapolis Colts traded a first-round pick for him early in the 2013 season. And now, with two full seasons under his belt and another three games into his third pro year, Richardson looks like a horrible bust.

Let's say Richardson's career goes like this from here on out. His 3-yards-per-pop carries offset by bursts of seven or eight yards here and there. If this is the Richardson the Colts end the year with, he will be (definitively) my biggest draft miss since I started doing this job.

Richardson still rates as my top graded running back ever, but the poor vision and timid running style he's adopted in the NFL is quickly wearing thin.

7. Alabama offensive tackle Cam Robinson may be two years away from draft eligibility, but he's already one of the most impressive prospects on that loaded roster in Tuscaloosa. Robinson, just a true freshman, is a future top-10 pick if his play and health hold up for two more seasons.

6. Despite a stress fracture in his foot, Ohio State's Jeff Heuerman remains my top-ranked tight end. The 2015 class has no Eric Ebron-type player with top-10 potential, but Heuerman has all the tools to be a long-term starter in the NFL and potentially a Pro Bowl-level player. He's athletic, versatile, a good in-line blocker and a matchup problem given his football IQ and agility in space.

5. Kirk Cousins' struggles on Thursday night bring up an interesting conundrum in Washington: if Robert Griffin III is no longer a viable option due to multiple leg injuries and a lack of the explosive ability that made him a star prospect, and Cousins isn't a long-term starting option, who is the quarterback of the future here? As of now, I'm not sold on any of these quarterbacks being the type of talent to get this team back into contention.

4. Linebacker Eric Striker at Oklahoma is one of the most explosive athletes in the nation, but at a listed 221 pounds, he's very small for what most NFL teams like at the position. Per Ourlads.com, the average outside linebacker drafted from 2008-12 weighed 246 pounds. There are outliers, though, and you can look at Lavonte David in Tampa Bay as a great example of a smaller outside linebacker who is excelling in the faster-paced NFL. On talent and impact, the junior linebacker is a top-25 pick.

3. Ryan Tannehill's struggles in Miami—and head coach Joe Philbin's reluctance to name him the starter this week—bring up an interesting nugget about Tannehill from before the 2012 draft. At Texas A&M he played quarterback for just two seasons after starting his career at wide receiver. Tannehill was viewed on my report as a tools quarterback who needed time to marinate in the NFL. In Miami he was forced into action right away under his old college head coach (Mike Sherman) as offensive coordinator. What we're seeing this year is the game catching up to Tannehill as he learns a new scheme and as defenses have learned how to stop him. He needed time to develop, and simply never got it.

2. UCLA's Brett Hundley returned from missing most of the Texas game with a non-throwing shoulder injury on Thursday night and torched the Arizona State defense with ease. Granted, ASU isn't a defensive hotbed, but Hundley made NFL-level throws and showed his athleticism in maneuvering in the pocket and making plays on the move. Watching Hundley throw bull's-eyes with great zip is exactly what NFL scouts wanted to see. He's a Top 10 pick for me if healthy.

1. The Oregon Ducks are off this week, but quarterback Marcus Mariota goes into the weekend once again as my top-ranked player. His game against Washington State showed both in the stats and on the tape that he's the best prospect in the country. A 21-of-25 day with five touchdowns (plus 58 yards running) was the only reason Oregon held off the Cougars, and the throws Mariota made were as impressive as that stat line looks. If the draft were this weekend, Mariota would be the first pick. Expect many #SuckfortheDuck tweets from quarterback-needy NFL fans to follow.