NFL Picks Week 4: Breaking Down Biggest Locks Against the Spread

Week 4 of the NFL season looks to be the toughest slate of games to call thus far with top teams such as the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos on the bye. Even so, there is money to be made from a betting perspective.

There is still a great deal of uncertainty as it relates to which teams are quality and which aren't, and that is reflected by there being so many close lines. For those who believe they have a good feel for the NFL's balance of power, this could be an extremely lucrative week.

Here is a full rundown of picks straight up and against the spread for every Week 4 game, along with further analysis regarding the biggest locks.

*Spreads courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Matchup	Pick Straight Up	Pick ATS
New York Giants at Washington (-3.5)	WAS	NYG
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)	CAR	CAR
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Even)	GB	GB
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3)	BUF	BUF
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-9)	IND	IND
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (Even)	DET	DET
Miami Dolphins (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders	OAK	OAK
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9)	PIT	TB
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-14)	SD	JAC
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings	ATL	ATL
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5)	SF	PHI
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Dallas Cowboys	NO	NO
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs	NE	NE

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Dallas Cowboys

Sean Gardner/Getty Images

The New Orleans Saints picked up a much-needed win in Week 4 after starting off 0-2. That momentum could mean big things for them moving forward, but there isn't a huge amount of confidence in the Saints from the oddsmakers entering Week 4.

New Orleans will travel to Dallas to take on a Cowboys team that is now 2-1 after coming from behind to defeat the St. Louis Rams in Week 3. America's Team has benefited from running back DeMarco Murray's great work on the ground, but there are still question marks surrounding quarterback Tony Romo as well as the defense.

The Saints are far from perfect in their own right, but quarterback Drew Brees is coming off a strong showing against the Minnesota Vikings and has yet to truly break out with a monster game. There may be no more vulnerable secondary in the NFL this season than the Cowboys', which should have Romo licking his chops.

Also, the Saints handed Dallas a 49-17 loss last season, so Sean Payton's squad knows how to beat the Cowboys. As pointed out by ESPN's Skip Bayless, New Orleans' success against Dallas last season is what makes the three-point line this week so bizarre:

While the Saints are definitely a different team on the road, it isn't as if they'll have to deal with any elements in Dallas. They will play in a controlled environment that should suit Brees and New Orleans' offense just fine.

As things currently stand, the Saints are a bit unlucky to be 1-2, while the Cowboys are a bit lucky to be 2-1. New Orleans is in the top 10 in the league against the run, which means that Dallas may need Romo to lead the way on Sunday night.

That often leads to a myriad of turnovers, and it will result in a comfortable Saints win as well.

Detroit Lions (Even) at New York Jets

There are times when betting lines seem a little too good to be true, and that may be the case when it comes to the Detroit Lions facing off against the New York Jets in Week 4. Despite Detroit seemingly having an obvious advantage in almost every category, this is a pick 'em game thus far. Gang Green's status as the home team complicates things, but they are coming off a home loss to the Chicago Bears.

Conversely, the Lions were absolutely dominant in a Week 3 win over the NFC North rival Green Bay Packers. The Jets allowed Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers to throw for nearly 350 yards and three touchdowns a couple weeks ago, but Detroit's front seven pressured him throughout the game and held Rodgers to a mere 162 yards through the air.

In addition to that, the Lions shut down running back Eddie Lacy and allowed just seven points to one of the NFL's most explosive offenses. Detroit's offense wasn't great in its own right with just 19 points, but Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Co. have shown what they are capable of for the past few years.

The big difference in this game may be New York's inability to punch the ball into the end zone. That is ultimately what prevented the Jets from beating the Bears in Week 3, and Jason McIntyre of The Big Lead sees it being an issue in Week 4 as well:

New York is tops in the league against the run, while the Lions aren't far behind in second. If the Jets can't get things going with Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson, then that will force inconsistent quarterback Geno Smith to put the game on his shoulders. He hasn't proved capable of doing that too often, and head coach Rex Ryan would rather not face that scenario.

The Jets' shaky secondary was picked apart by Rodgers a couple weeks ago, which means Stafford is likely licking his chops at the opportunity to face that matchup. Sometimes logic doesn't prevail in the NFL, but everything is pointing in the direction of a routine Lions win this week.

Oakland Raiders (+4.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

Things were looking good for the Miami Dolphins after a huge comeback win over the New England Patriots in Week 1, but things have gone south quickly. With listless losses to the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs since then, the Fish desperately need a victory in Week 4 to turn things around.

Doing so looks easy on paper as the Dolphins will face the winless Oakland Raiders in a neutral-site game in London, but the Raiders have performed better than their record suggests. Their losses to the Jets and Patriots were by just one score apiece, and they certainly seem to put forth an honest effort each and every week.

The same can't necessarily be said for the Dolphins after watching them the past two weeks. There is also now uncertainty surrounding Miami's quarterback position with head coach Joe Philbin refusing to commit to Ryan Tannehill as the starter.

According to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald, Philbin was somewhat cryptic when answering questions about Tannehill's status.

"We're going to choose the best 46 guys we think will help us win a football game and we're going to go from there," Philbin said.

After the offense's struggles in Week 2 and Week 3, Andrew Abramson of the Palm Beach Post doesn't view Sunday's game against the Raiders as anything resembling a lock for Miami:

It would be tough for the Dolphins to match the turmoil they faced last season, but this definitely appears to be a team in disarray. The Raiders may be lacking in talent, but they have a lot of young players with plenty to prove, including rookie quarterback Derek Carr.

They also have a defense that has played better than expected, and it could very well give the struggling Dolphins offense some problems. All the ingredients are present for an Oakland upset victory, and that is precisely how Sunday's meeting will play out.

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