NFL Picks Week 3: Top Vegas Spreads to Avoid from Weekend Slate

Like any other lineup, the NFL Week 3 spreads have some duds to avoid.

Bettors know the drill. Some odds are simply too eye-popping to toy with—although New England over Oakland by more than two touchdowns does seem to have a nice ring to it.

Whether it is injuries, erratic play, unreliable past info to work with and more, the third week of the 2014 season has some nice lines at first glance, but a few transform into surefire money pits when reading the fine print.

Below, let's break down the entire slate and a few contests worth steering around.

NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
San Diego at Buffalo	BUF (-1)	San Diego	Buffalo is a nice surprise, but the Chargers enter after a win over Seattle and Philip Rivers has been unstoppable.
Dallas at St. Louis	EVEN	Dallas	Tony Romo may regress to Week 1 form on the road, but St. Louis can't keep up.
Washington at Philadelphia	PHI (-7)	Philadelphia	See analysis below.
Houston at NY Giants	HOU (-1)	Houston	Houston's rush will cause turnover-prone Eli Manning to make more than a few mistakes.
Minnesota at New Orleans	NO (-11.5)	New Orleans	A reluctance to use Cordarrelle Patterson is the last thing Minnesota needed last week—the staff did it anyway.
Tennessee at Cincinnati	CIN (-7)	Cincinnati	Cincinnati has the best defense outside of Seattle, and the offense is currently firing on all cylinders.
Baltimore at Cleveland	EVEN	Baltimore	Joe Flacco's offense seems to be in tune after a rocky start, which will be enough on the road.
Green Bay at Detroit	DET (-2.5)	Detroit	Green Bay's miserable offensive line is going to cause issues in Detroit.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville	IND (-7)	Indianapolis	Andrew Luck normally can't do it all on his own, but he sure can against these Jaguars.
Oakland at New England	NE (-15.5)	Oakland	The least talented team in the league has sure started to play like it.
San Francisco at Arizona	SF (-2.5)	San Francisco	A team perhaps without Carson Palmer doesn't get to play the Giants two weeks in a row.
Denver at Seattle	SEA (-4.5)	Seattle	See analysis below.
Kansas City at Miami	MIA (-4)	Miami	No Jamaal Charles (whether due to injury or poor coaching), no win.
Pittsburgh at Carolina	CAR (-3)	Carolina	Carolina will have no issue running all over the Pittsburgh defense.
Chicago at NY Jets	NYJ (-2.5)	Chicago	As seen last week, New York cannot when when it gets into a shootout with a potent offense.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 4 p.m. ET, Sept. 20. 

Spreads to Avoid

Denver at Seattle (-4.5)

On one hand, this seems like such a sure thing. The Seattle Seahawks rarely lose at home, and last year's Super Bowl rout is certainly fresh on the minds of bettors.

But the Super Bowl might have been an anomaly, and does anyone really want to bet against Peyton Manning?

Perhaps not, especially with the way the Seahawks looked last week. Granted, Russell Wilson and Co. were on the road in San Diego, but it still raises a red flag when one realizes that quarterback Philip Rivers torched the "Legion of Boom" to the tune of 284 yards and three touchdowns—while repeatedly going directly at Richard Sherman.

As Seahawks coach Pete Carroll clearly hints, the loss where key strengths were exploited comes at a bad time heading into perhaps the biggest game of the year.

"They're quiet. They're quiet and serious," said Carroll, per STATS LLC, via ESPN.com. "We don't take these easily. There are very high expectations that we live with here and everybody knows that. The main thing is everybody took to heart the changes and adjustments and the things that we can fix."

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Manning surely has himself a copy of last week's tape and will mimic what Rivers was able to do best—abuse the Seahawks via the tight end. Antonio Gates led the team in receiving with seven catches for 96 yards and a trio of scores over Seattle.

It just so happens that Manning has an elite tight end in Julius Thomas who has 11 catches for 143 yards and four scores through two games.

Behind Manning's arm—51 yards and six scores to no interceptions, the Broncos are back to their high-scoring ways and seem in prime form going into the matchup. Then again, Seattle could bounce back, and was perhaps even overlooking San Diego in anticipation of this one.

In short, any spread is unsafe when these two meet.

Washington at Philadelphia (-7)

It is not so much that the spread itself is a problem when Washington travels to Philadelphia this weekend, but that there are simply too many unpredictable elements at work.

First, let's just say the two teams have lived up to their offensive-minded billing, as NFL Network's Gil Brandt illustrates:

First look at the Eagles. Star back LeSean McCoy is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, while quarterback Nick Foles has looked anything but reliable thanks to turnover issues.

Speaking of reliability, that 2-0 mark is not convincing. The Eagles were down 17-0 to Jacksonville (of all teams) to start the season before going on to win. The next week, the team was down 20-6 against Indianapolis before pulling off the comeback.

Against a strong Washington offense, that might not work out.

Robert Griffin III went down last week, but in a 41-10 win against Jacksonville, backup Kirk Cousins put on a show fans have not seen from their starter, as noted by ESPN Stats & Info:

Considering there have been rumblings that Cousins is considered a better fit for coach Jay Gruden's offense than RGIII, Washington is very much a threat to exploit the Philadelphia defense much in the same way it was the first two games of the season.

When two shady defenses meet against opposing powerhouse offenses, the only real loser is bettors silly enough to throw cash down on the end result.

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).