Allen Hurns Shouldn't Be a High-Priority Fantasy Waiver Add in Week 2

We've seen this before.

In Week 1 of 2013, Leonard Hankerson blew past the Philadelphia Eagles secondary for 80 yards and a pair of scores while Jerome Simpson tore up Detroit for 140 yards. A year earlier, it was Kevin Ogletree (114 yards, two touchdowns) and Stephen Hill (89 yards, two touchdowns) sending fantasy owners into a frenzy after just 60 minutes of football. 

And where did those guys end up? Well, it's not pretty:

Player	Season	GP	Receptions	Receving Yards	TD
Leonard Hankerson	2013	10	30	375	3
Jerome Simpson	2013	16	48	726	1
Kevin Ogletree	2012	15	32	436	4
Stephen Hill	2012	11	21	252	3

Which brings us to Allen Hurns. His four-catch, 110-yard, two-touchdown outburst was second among wide receivers in standard fantasy leagues behind some guy named Calvin Johnson. Not only that, the undrafted rookie did much of his damage in the first quarter of his career to enter the history books, per ESPN Stats & Info:

The 22-year-old Miami product is an impressive talent, and if you were paying attention during the preseason—no one will blame you if you weren't—Sunday's explosion may not have come as a complete surprise. He pulled down 14 catches for 232 yards and a touchdown in four games, garnering immense praise from the coaching staff. 

Head coach Gus Bradley raved after Hurns pulled in seven catches for 113 yards during the Jags' "dress rehearsal," via The Florida Times-Union's Hays Carlyon:

"

He has good instincts and is really driven. We saw it in OTAs—some of the quarterbacks said they really like him. They felt like this guy is a diamond in the rough. Just trust us on this. He has some talent. I think the cool thing for him was it was against the ones. He went out there and performed at that level.

"

Jedd Fisch, who coached Hurns at Miami as the offensive coordinator for two years, was apparently so giddy, he couldn't talk, per Yahoo Sports' Eric Edholm:

There's obviously potential here, and piling in Hurns with the Simpsons and Ogletrees of the fantasy world would be wrong. However, if you are near the top of your league's waiver order, don't rush to grab the youngster. 

First, it's going to be a crowded competition for targets. Cecil Shorts (injury) and Ace Sanders (suspension) were both out of action Sunday, and when they return, they'll join Hurns, fellow rookies Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson and tight end Marcedes Lewis in the pass-catching corps.  

Combine that with Bradley wanting to lean on the run game much like in Seattle and Chad Henne serving as the ultimate JAG under center, and there is going to be lots of inconsistency from everyone in the passing game. 

Moreover, it's best to save a high waiver priority for a running back. With teams increasingly throwing more and more, there is almost endless depth at wide receiver. The opposite is true for running backs, and if a major injury strikes or a backup comes into a workhorse role, you're going to want to have that top waiver. 

Hurns should absolutely be rostered whether it be via low waiver pick or free agency, but patience is key, especially during the first weeks of the season.