2015 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook for Week 1
The new college football season kicked off over Labor Day weekend, and it did not disappoint. With draft-eligible players all over the country taking the field and preparing for Week 2, it's time to start focusing on player evaluations for the upcoming 2015 NFL draft.
The Scout's Report
— The top-rated senior in the country just might be Texas A&M tackle Cedric Ogbuehi. Two teams I spoke to this week had him rated atop their preseason board.
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— Christian Hackenberg isn't draft-eligible until 2016, but that hasn't stopped NFL teams from sneaking peeks at his tape. The comparisons to Andrew Luck are already starting around the NFL.
— Two high-level scouts both pointed out the play of Miami (Fla.) linebacker Denzel Perryman this week, and there's no denying the Hurricane dominated Week 1. Perryman ranks as my top inside linebacker for the 2015 draft.
— All eyes were on Marcus Mariota in the opener, but the Oregon quarterback (and top-rated player overall) faces a dynamic Michigan State defense this week. Mariota vs. the Spartans secondary will be a must-see game for scouts.
— Shaq Thompson (Washington) is an interesting prospect, given that he's played outside linebacker, safety and now running back in college. NFL scouts I spoke to this week are all classifying him as a linebacker when projecting his NFL future.
— Devin Funchess donned the famed No. 1 jersey at Michigan to start his senior season, a number worn by great Wolverine wide receivers over the years. That's telling, too, for Funchess' future, as NFL teams see him as a wide receiver and not a tight end.
— Here's a player to keep an eye on: Auburn wide receiver Duke Williams. He was a junior college player until this season, but one scout I spoke to compared his situation to Cordarrelle Patterson in that he could be a one-year FBS player.
— Everyone knows the big three quarterbacks in college (Mariota, Jameis Winston and Brett Hundley), but a high-ranking team official I spoke to this week prefers Michigan State's Connor Cook to all but Winston. The junior quarterback won't put up big numbers in that offense, but his tools are eye-opening.
— Fans too often overlook offensive line play, but La'el Collins (LSU), Jamon Brown (Louisville) and Arie Kouandjio (Alabama) all received positive remarks from NFL scouts I spoke to this week.
Five Up, Five Down
Each week, "Five Up, Five Down" will monitor the movements of players on my draft board.
5. OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
Cedric Ogbuehi had played guard and right tackle in his college career, but in 2014 he made the move to the blind side with Jake Matthews heading to the NFL. The only question mark I had on Ogbuehi heading into the season was how he would handle that transition. He dominated.
Ogbuehi has the athleticism and superb length needed to anchor the position. He's a smooth mover and has the upside to continue to improve as he becomes more comfortable cutting off edge-rushers to his left.
4. RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
The two-year stretch of running backs falling in the draft will end this season, as Georgia's Todd Gurley will cause NFL general managers to pick him in the first round.
Gurley has the power, speed and vision to be an instant impact in the pros—and that's what you draft in Round 1. To be 6'1", 226 pounds and be fast and agile enough to return kickoffs, you know Gurley has rare and special skills.
Teams may be afraid of him after watching Trent Richardson go so high and struggle to make his mark in the league, but Gurley's speed and aggression hitting the hole will quickly quiet any Richardson comparisons.
3. WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
Injuries slowed down Alabama wideout Amari Cooper in 2013, but in Week 1 of this season he put himself right back into the conversation as college football's best wide receiver.
Cooper doesn't have the speed and open-field moves of Sammy Watkins or the size of Calvin Johnson, but he's a sure-handed, smart player with plus route-running skills and body control. He may not dominate at the NFL Scouting Combine, but the film shows that Cooper is ready to make an instant impact in the NFL next season.
2. ILB Denzel Perryman, Miami (Fla.)
No one player stood out to me from opening weekend as much as Miami's Denzel Perryman—and he'll be a major player in this week's Scouting Notebook.
Perryman's instincts, quickness and hard-hitting skills make him a star middle linebacker prospect. He doesn't have elite measurables (6'0", 240 lbs), but his instincts and read-and-react skills are exactly what you want from the position. He's also athletic enough to be a contributor in passing situations as a coverage 'backer.
1. ILB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
If Perryman was the most impressive linebacker of the week, UCLA's Eric Kendricks is a close second.
The Bruin defense is full of future NFL prospects, but Kendricks stole the show with his play against Virginia. He was all over the field, flashing quickness and strength in attacking the run and blitzing the quarterback. Kendricks will have scouts question his size (6'1", 230 lbs), but his film shows an aggressive, attacking player with big potential.
1. QB Bryce Petty, Baylor
Petty entered the season as my top-ranked senior quarterback, but he cracked two small bones in his back in Baylor's Week 1 win over SMU, per The Associated Press (via ESPN.com). Petty was originally slated to play this week, and the injury is being downplayed, but it's a situation to watch.
As for the NFL, this is the type of injury that will be heavily poked and prodded at medical checkups during the combine.
2. QB David Ash, Texas
David Ash has the athletic tools to play quarterback in the NFL, but injuries have put his ability to play football into question. Another concussion has Ash missing Texas' game against BYU this weekend, and if he'll ever play again is in question.
Ash missed 10 games last season after suffering a concussion, and per ESPN.com, Texas head coach Charlie Strong is worried about the quarterback's future. The best move for Ash? Forget the NFL, forget college football and focus on his long-term health.
3. DE (Edge) Vic Beasley, Clemson
The stat sheet will tell you that Vic Beasley had five tackles and a sack against Georgia in the team's Week 1 loss, but Beasley wasn't as impressive as those numbers may indicate.
Beasley was a non-factor in the first half and struggled to affect the run game or consistently pressure the Georgia backfield. Beasley is undersized at 6'3" and 235 pounds, and concerns about how he'll hold up against the run are very valid. A big bounce-back is needed for Beasley to retain his top-10 ranking long term.
4. UCLA Offensive Line and Wide Receivers
Evaluating quarterback Brett Hundley will not be easy this year if the talent around him at UCLA performs like it did in the season opener against Virginia.
Hundley was routinely pressured and hit, and he saw the passes he could fire to receivers dropped far too often. And while some of that responsibility falls on the quarterback, no other top prospect at the position has the lack of supporting cast that Hundley faces.
Not since Matt Ryan at Boston College have I seen a top quarterback prospect working with so little around him.
5. OLB Jordan Jenkins, Georgia
One of Georgia's outside linebackers dominated in the opening week, but it wasn't Jordan Jenkins. Leonard Floyd overshadowed him in the team's big win over Clemson, and rechecking the tape on Jenkins leaves some question marks.
Jenkins doesn't have the quick burst needed to attack the edge in a 3-4 defense, and while he has ideal size (6'3", 252 lbs), he's more lumbering than quick in space. A move to inside linebacker or strong-side linebacker may be in his future as a pro.
Scouting Report: Denzel Perryman
Throughout the 2014 college football season, one senior draft prospect will be highlighted each week with a first-look scouting report.
No player stole the show on defense in the opening week of college football like Miami's Denzel Perryman. How does the middle linebacker project to the NFL?
Inside Linebacker, Miami (Fla.)
6'0", 242 pounds
Strengths:
Perryman plays with speed and quickness, showing start-stop ability and the motor to chase down backs and receivers in space. He's improved his ability to step into the hole and take on the run. For a smaller player, he doesn't shy away from traffic and looks to go through blockers to make the play. He has good instincts for timing the snap and is rarely out of position. Perryman is scheme versatile and can play inside in a 3-4 or 4-3 defense. His speed and hips make him a viable coverage candidate in man and zone schemes.
Weaknesses:
Wore down at the end of Week 1 against Louisville, so conditioning is something to watch. He will take on blockers and leave the hole exposed at times—so he must keep his outside arm free to disengage from the block to make the play. He's undersized for the position and must be protected by defensive linemen or blockers will tie him up routinely. Perryman will make tackles downfield instead of filling and making the play in the hole.
Pro Player Comparison: Mason Foster, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Scouting Dictionary
"Scheme versatile"
When you read or hear that a player is scheme versatile, take notice. This is a great asset in today's NFL, as it means the player can line up in a variety of alignments.
This is most commonly used for defensive players, but it can apply to both sides of the ball. On defense, this might mean the linebacker can play in a 4-3 or 3-4, or that a cornerback is both man and zone coverage ready. When looking at defensive linemen, this most often applies to the ability to play 3-4 defensive end or 4-3 defensive tackle equally well.
On offense, the term most often applies to an offensive lineman's ability to play in a man or zone blocking scheme.
The Big Board
Everyone loves watching and evaluating quarterbacks—but it is also the hardest position to truly evaluate. Heading into the season, here are my top 10 players at the position.
| Rank | Player | School | Height | Weight |
| 1 | Marcus Mariota | Oregon | 6'4" | 215 |
| 2 | Jameis Winston | FSU | 6'4" | 235 |
| 3 | Brett Hundley | UCLA | 6'3" | 227 |
| 4 | Connor Cook | Michigan State | 6'4" | 220 |
| 5 | Kevin Hogan | Stanford | 6'4" | 228 |
| 6 | Bryce Perry | Baylor | 6'2" | 230 |
| 7 | Chuckie Keeton | Utah State | 6'1" | 200 |
| 8 | Bryan Bennett | SE Louisiana | 6'2" | 205 |
| 9 | Sean Mannion | Oregon State | 6'4" | 220 |
| 10 | Taylor Kelly | Arizona State | 6'1" | 204 |
Parting Shots
10. One of the biggest misconceptions I see when chatting with fans is that statistics equal potential. What stats don't give us is context. If a quarterback has a 25-of-30, 400-yard day, we don't know how many of those passes were dropped, how many were an exceptional catch or how many of those yards came after the catch. Stats are part of the puzzle, but a very small one when projecting how a college player's talent will translate to the NFL.
9. Russell Wilson has been talked about at length this week thanks to the Seahawks' prime-time game against the Green Bay Packers, and no player in my career has caused me so much grief after the fact. I had the opportunity to shadow Wilson for his week at the NFL Scouting Combine. I went with him to meetings and interviews and watched him throw in a college gymnasium the night before his on-field workouts for NFL teams.
I should have known that night how great Wilson would be. His arm strength was off-the-charts good, players loved him, and as he told me then, the Wisconsin line he played behind was the fourth largest in football—not just college, but the NFL, too. His height, though, was a detriment I couldn't overlook, so I gave him a third-round grade (No. 102 overall).
8. The lesson I learned from scouting Wilson and watching him succeed? Outliers exist in the NFL, and you have to be willing to find them. Drew Brees and Wilson have become top-tier quarterbacks without having ideal NFL measurables, which means you cannot discount a player over height. If two of the 32 starters are hovering around 6 feet tall, I can't rule out the next college kid with those off-the-charts skills who might be below ideal height.
7. The decision to start rookie Derek Carr after signing veteran Matt Schaub in free agency would not have been an easy one for the Oakland Raiders, but it's the right one. Carr gives this team the best chance to win now and to win in the future. This may be the first sign that things are turning around in Oakland.
6. We're going to be flooded with Marcus Mariota news all season, but this video from Bleacher Report on his rise to stardom is worth a watch. It's scary how good Mariota is given his relative newness to a starting quarterback job.
5. Fran Tarkenton said, "Todd Gurley can be as good as Jim Brown," via Chase Goodbread of NFL.com, and it's as great a hyperbole as you'll hear this season. Gurley is a very talented runner, but comparing him to arguably the greatest running back of all time isn't fair to anyone. Expectations for the Georgia running back are already through the roof before being compared to the godfather of NFL running backs. Slow your roll, Fran.
4. I'm an Amari Cooper fan, but West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen saying (also via Goodbread) that the Alabama wide receiver "might be the first overall pick in the draft" is not wise. Remember, not even Calvin Johnson was drafted No. 1 overall. The last receiver to be selected with the first pick was USC's Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. Cooper is talented, but going first overall as a receiver is very unlikely in today's NFL.
3. File this away for the future: Ole Miss could have two players drafted very early in the 2016 draft. Offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil and defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche are already turning heads in Oxford. If both players can build upon how they look now, it wouldn't shock if they're drafted Nos. 1 and 2 in 2016.
2. An update from last week: Former TCU defensive end Devonte Fields has landed at Trinity Valley Community College. They wasted no time getting him on the field, as the star defender made seven tackles in the team's Week 1 opener.
1. Rachel Axon of USA Today reported that Florida State is investigating star quarterback Jameis Winston after a rape allegation last season resulted in no charges. While the long-term football affects are secondary here, they have to be considered. As I mentioned last week, one NFL scout told me Winston was the best quarterback in college football, but the character of the player concerned him. This is a story every NFL team will be following very closely.
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