NFL Week 17 Picks: Upsets That Will Shake Up Playoff Picture

Sterling XieCorrespondent IIDecember 28, 2013

Don't write off Alshon Jeffery and the Bears against Green Bay.
Don't write off Alshon Jeffery and the Bears against Green Bay.Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

In prognosticating this weekend's games, Grantland's Bill Barnwell estimated that there was just a 12 percent chance that chalk would prevail, leaving the current NFL playoff picture unchanged.

So, upsets will almost certainly happen tomorrow, throwing some team's best-laid plans out of whack. The only question now is pinpointing the most likely upsets and figuring out how they will alter the postseason picture.

With that in mind, here are the keys to victory for a pair of underdogs who appear most likely to throw a monkey wrench into the playoff picture as currently constituted. 


Jets Over Dolphins

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - DECEMBER 1: Geno Smith #7 of the New York Jets plays during their game against the Miami Dolphins at MetLife Stadium on December 1, 2013 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images)
Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

After a dismal midseason stretch submarined their playoff aspirations, Gang Green has turned things around lately. The Jets have scored at least 20 points in each of their past three games after failing to reach that threshold in four of their previous five contests. The pass defense has also tightened up, as New York has allowed just one 300-yard passer since their Week 10 bye.

That could spell trouble for a Miami Dolphins offense that struggled mightily to protect Ryan Tannehill and give their second-year quarterback time to throw. In fairness, the unit had been on an upward trend before last week's shutout in Buffalo, and Miami thoroughly dominated the Jets a month earlier in a 23-3 win. 

Still, New York's fortunes have turned around in part because of Geno Smith's improved play. Smith is still an extremely raw prospect who does not show more than glimpses of promise. But he's cut down on the turnovers the past three games, throwing just two picks to four touchdowns en route to a respectable 83.5 quarterback rating, per Pro-Football-Focus. As Rich Cimini of ESPN New York indicates, his ability to hold onto the ball might be the game's most important factor:

Which Geno will show up?: Geno Smith was terrible against the Dolphins in Week 13, resulting in a halftime benching -- the lowpoint of his up-and-down rookie season. Since then, he has played reasonably well, producing six touchdowns (four passing, two rushing) and only two interceptions. The Dolphins' defense is always a tough matchup for the Jets, so this won't be easy. If Smith can finish with another encouraging performance, it could impact how the front office tackles the quarterback situation in the offseason. It certainly would reduce the need to pick a quarterback in the first or second round of the draft. It also would reinforce the belief that Smith is developing in Marty Mornhinweg's system. 

The Dolphins might need a couple gifts from the Jets' rookie quarterback to jumpstart their inconsistent offense. But if they can't generate some extra opportunities, a young New York defense that has held up well all season could certainly hold the fort long enough to squeak out a close victory. If that happens, the Ravens, Chargers and Steelers would allow benefit from Miami's elimination, with Baltimore subsequently taking control of their own destiny.


Bears Over Packers

CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 16: Brandon Marshall #15 of the Chicago Bears runs after a catch against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on December 16, 2012 in Chicago, Illinois. The Packers defeated the Bears 21-13. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Admittedly, there aren't a whole lot of reasons to love the Bears in this matchup. Aaron Rodgers is back, and Chicago has had arguably the worst defense in the league since the halfway point of the season. The Bears are coming off an ignominious 54-11 clubbing at the hands of the Eagles and are underdogs by a full touchdown at Soldier Field.

And yet, recency bias might be looming too large over the Bears as circumstances change quickly in the NFL. Yes, the Bears defense has been terrible, but Green Bay's is nearly as bad. In fact, according to Pro-Football-Focus, while Chicago has conceded 400 or more yards in five games, ninth-most in the league, the Packers are tied for third-most with seven such games.

In a game where defensive stops figure to occur rarely, big special teams plays could be crippling to a defense's already meager chances of generating a stop. Jeff Joniak of CBS Chicago believes poor field position was an underrated factor in the Bears' blowout Week 16 loss, but that they should have the advantage over a subpar Packers return unit:

Green Bay for much of the season has had one of the worst kick return units in terms of average now at 20.3 good for 30th, but Micah Hyde slipped free in the final moments of last week’s loss to Pittsburgh with a 70-yard return that gave the Packers a chance to tie the game.

He had the three longest returns of the season for the Packers in that one game. Green Bay’s kick coverage ranks 29th giving up nearly 27 yards per return, with a league worst five returns more than 50 yards. Field position was not good for the Bears in Philadelphia – it has to improve against the Packers, in a game where every yard could make the difference in being a division champion or missing the playoffs.

So long as the Bears offensive line can protect Jay Cutler against a Packers pass rush sans Clay Matthews, Chicago should find success with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery against the Green Bay secondary. For his part, Cutler was his comically aloof self in summing up Chicago's challenge this week:

Chicago can keep up in a track meet with their oldest rivals, and the NFC North title bout is much closer to a coin flip than most people believe.