Week 13 NFL Predictions: Over-Under Bets That Are Sure to Win

Rob Goldberg@TheRobGoldbergFeatured ColumnistNovember 30, 2013

CLEVELAND, OH - NOVEMBER 03:  Quarterback Brandon Weeden #3 of the Cleveland Browns looks for a receiver against the Baltimore Ravens at FirstEnergy Stadium on November 3, 2013 in Cleveland, Ohio.  (Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images)
Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

While people normally look at points spreads to make their bets, there are often plenty of opportunities to make money through over/unders.

In Week 13 of the NFL season, every single line is set to be between 40 and 50 points, according to Vegas Insider. Although many will be close to this mark, we will see a lot more variety on Sunday.

It is sometimes tough to predict how the pace of each game will go, but you can expect a few games to be especially high- or low-scoring. Here is a look at over-under bets certain to pay out this weekend.


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns (Under 40)

NASHVILLE, TN - NOVEMBER 10:  Maurice Jones-Drew #32 of the Jacksonville Jaguars runs the ball against the Tennessee Titans at LP Field on November 10, 2013 in Nashville, Tennessee.  The Jaguars defeated the Titans 29-27.  (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Imag
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Even though this is the smallest line of the week, you can expect these two teams to stay under it.

Cleveland's defense has been solid all season, allowing the fourth-fewest yards in the NFL. Teams have been able to score points against this unit, but the Jaguars will be less able to take advantage of mistakes than other opponents. 

Jacksonville has scored the fewest points in the league by more than 40 points. Without the ability to move the ball consistently, it will be tough to get anything on the scoreboard.

Of course, this does not mean it will be a blowout for the Browns. Brandon Weeden will get the start, and he has been one of the worst quarterbacks in football this season. His team is 0-4 when the former first-round pick starts at quarterback, only averaging 11.5 points per game.

This is certain to be an ugly battle no matter which team has the ball. But while I would not advice watching it, you definitely can make some money by placing the under.


Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills (Over 46.5)

CHARLOTTE, NC - NOVEMBER 03:  Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons during their game at Bank of America Stadium on November 3, 2013 in Charlotte, North Carolina.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

It's impossible to deny that the Falcons have been awful defensively this season, allowing the fourth-most points per game in the league. They have been even worse on the road, giving up an average of 30.4 points.

Buffalo has generally been solid offensively when EJ Manuel is on the field. Coming off a bye, the squad should be able to run the ball consistently with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller while beating the young cornerbacks over the top with some big plays.

Still, this game should be competitive based on the fact that the Atlanta offense is much better than it has shown lately. The last five losses have come against four of the top 10 passing defenses and an improving Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad. 

With Matt Ryan throwing the ball to Harry Douglas, Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White, the offense should be able to move the ball against the Bills, who have been a bit inconsistent on the defensive end.

The Bills should be able to pull out a win at home, but not before each side racks up a lot of touchdowns.


Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings (Over 50)

This is certainly a high spread, but these two teams have a chance to blow it away, especially considering they combine to allow 59.6 points per game.

Chicago has had an up-and-down season, but Josh McCown has done a good job filling in for the injured Jay Cutler. The veteran quarterback threw for 352 yards a week ago and could exceed this mark against the 29th-ranked Vikings defense.

With elite skill players like Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte making plays after the catch, this offense should put plenty of points on the scoreboard.

On the other hand, the Bears have been awful against the run this season and seem to be getting worse. The St. Louis Rams rushed for 258 yards last week after Ray Rice had his best game of the year in Week 11.

If Benny Cunningham can rush for 109 yards against this unit, just imagine what Adrian Peterson will do.

The Vikings will be able to run the ball early and often to be effective offensively and stay in this game. With these two poor defenses, do not be surprised if both squads score at least 30 points to go over the line.

NFL Week 13
AwayHomeSpreadOver/UnderPick ATS
Tennessee TitansIndianapolis ColtsIND -3.545Colts
Denver BroncosKansas City ChiefsDEN -5.549Broncos
Jacksonville JaguarsCleveland BrownsCLE -740Jaguars
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina PanthersCAR -7.541.5Panthers
Chicago BearsMinnesota VikingsMIN -150Bears
Arizona CardinalsPhiladelphia EaglesPHI -348.5Eagles
Miami DolphinsNew York JetsNYJ -240Jets
Atlanta FalconsBuffalo BillsBUF -346.5Bills
St. Louis RamsSan Francisco 49ersSF -842Rams
New England PatriotsHouston TexansNE -747Patriots
Cincinnati BengalsSan Diego ChargersSD -148.5Bengals
New York GiantsWashington RedskinsNYG -145.5Giants
New Orleans SaintsSeattle SeahawksSEA -5.547Saints
Spread info courtesy of Vegas Insider


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