NFL Picks Week 12: Predictions for Most Underrated Games

A lot of attention heading into Week 12 has gone toward just a couple of games, but there are a few matchups going under the radar that could have big-time playoff implications.

The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots continue to get all of the attention heading into this week, as Peyton Manning will be going against Tom Brady in one of the more memorable quarterback rivalries in the past decade.  Meanwhile, the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys are going head-to-head in a big NFC East rivalry game.

Still, there are other games to watch besides those two.  Below is a complete list of predictions for Week 12, followed by a breakdown of some of this week's most underrated games.

Away	Prediction	Home
New York Jets	21-17	Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers	24-10	Cleveland Browns
Carolina Panthers	30-13	Miami Dolphins
Chicago Bears	21-24	St. Louis Rams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20-24	Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings	14-20	Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars	7-24	Houston Texans
San Diego Chargers	13-24	Kansas City Chiefs
Indianapolis Colts	23-28	Arizona Cardinals
Tennessee Titans	20-21	Oakland Raiders
Dallas Cowboys	28-24	New York Giants
Denver Broncos	38-30	New England Patriots
San Francisco 49ers	30-20	Washington Redskins

New York Jets (5-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-6)

Date: Sunday, Nov. 24

Time: 1 p.m. ET

TV: CBS

Prediction: 21-17, Jets

If the season ended today, the New York Jets would be the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoffs, while the Baltimore Ravens would be out of the postseason.  With a game like this, the AFC playoff picture could change very quickly.

The Jets have been the masters of inconsistency this season.  Not only are they 5-5, but they've also failed to win or lose two consecutive games.  Geno Smith has been a big reason for that, as he's struggled mightily in losses and played relatively well when the team has won.

	Yds	Comp %	TD	INT	RAT
In Wins	1,134	58.3	7	4	89.4
In Losses	966	54.5	1	12	43.4

The reason that the Jets have been able to keep most of their games close has been their tough defense.  They're allowing just 73.2 rushing yards per game, and according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), they have a run defense grade of 80.9, with both marks rankings first in the NFL.

That run defense isn't going to do the Ravens any favors.  They're coming off their best running game in a very long time, putting up 174 yards while averaging 4.2 yards per carry.  For the year, however, they're still averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and 83.2 yards per game.

The lack of a running game will make the Ravens one-dimensional, and that will give the Jets more opportunities to force Joe Flacco to make mistakes.  The Jets should be able to continue their inconsistency by grabbing another win and advancing to 6-5 on the year.

Chicago Bears (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (4-6)

Date: Sunday, Nov. 24

Time: 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX

Prediction: 24-21, Rams

While the Chicago Bears are fighting to take the top spot in the NFC North, the St. Louis Rams are trying to prove their last win over the Indianapolis Colts wasn't a fluke.

With Jay Cutler banged up, veteran quarterback Josh McCown has done a solid job for the Bears.  He's completed 60.4 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and zero interceptions, leading the team to two wins in two starts.  Matt Forte has stepped up as well, running for 774 yards and seven touchdowns.

Defensively, this team isn't the same without Brian Urlacher.  Injuries to Lance Briggs and Henry Melton certainly haven't helped that, as they're allowing 26.7 points per game.

After three straight losses, the Rams got a big 38-8 win.  Zac Stacy has given the running game a much-needed lift, running for 323 yards and three touchdowns in the last three games.  He should have another big game against the Bears, as they allow 133.9 rushing yards per game.

The star players for this team are on the other side of the ball, as the Rams have a very strong front seven.  Chris Long and Robert Quinn are Pro Bowl-caliber players up front, combining for 18.5 sacks this year.

That pass rush should be able to get at McCown, and the emergence of a stronger running game will show that the Rams can go toe-to-toe with some solid teams.

Indianapolis Colts (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

Date: Sunday, Nov. 24

Time: 4:05 p.m. ET

TV: CBS

Prediction: 28-23, Cardinals

Very quietly, the Arizona Cardinals have gone 6-4 and are now tied with the San Francisco 49ers for second in the NFC West.  Head coach Bruce Arians will be reunited with his former team in the Indianapolis Colts for what will be a very entertaining matchup.

Without Reggie Wayne, the Colts have looked like a completely different team.  They have that incredibly rough loss to the Rams along with two second-half comebacks over the past three games.  Trent Richardson continues to be a big disappointment, as he's recording just 2.8 yards per carry.

Even though Andrew Luck has been a great quarterback this season, he's likely going to have trouble against the Cardinals.  Football Outsiders has the Cardinals as the No. 1 defense in terms of defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).  A talented secondary with players like Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu could force Luck to make some big mistakes.

Carson Palmer hasn't been outstanding at quarterback, but he's looked better over the past three games, throwing six touchdowns and two interceptions.  Larry Fitzgerald is having a much better season than he had in 2012, catching 45 passes for 554 yards and six scores.

This improved offense should be able to take down the Colts while their defense frustrates Luck and the passing game for the Colts.  Indianapolis just hasn't looked the same without Wayne, and that is what will help the Cardinals win this one.