NFL Playoff Picture 2013: Week 12 Standings, Super Bowl Odds and Wild Card Hunt

Tyler ConwayFeatured ColumnistNovember 19, 2013

DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 17:   Peyton Manning #18 of the Denver Broncos looks to pass against the Kansas City Chiefs in the second quarter at Sports Authority Field at Mile High on November 17, 2013 in Denver, Colorado.  (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)
Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Being in the NFL playoff race going into Week 12 doesn't mean the same thing for every team.

On one side, it could mean you're the Broncos, Chiefs or Seahawks. It could mean your ticket to January football is all but guaranteed and the remaining six weeks of the season are all about where you place in the league's hierarchy. It could mean the top seed in the conference, as it likely will for two of those three squads, or it could merely mean playing a Wild Card contest. Either way, playoff spots are on lock.

On the other side is the less flattering "playoff contender." There are 13 teams with either five or six losses coming into this week, each of which has a realistic shot at playing a road or possibly even home playoff game if things break right.

If and when things break poorly, everything goes to hell, coaches get fired and you wind up drafting somewhere around No. 10—well beyond the reaches of the Jadeveon Clowneys, Marcus Mariotas and Teddy Bridgewaters of the world.

And then there's everyone in the middle. The Bengals of the world, teams whose quarterbacks' hair matches their jersey colors and who will get that wonderful deer-in-the-headlights look come Round 1.

The National Football League, everyone!

But, alas, with six weeks to go, there's still plenty of action remaining. Let's take a complete look at the 2013 NFL playoff picture heading into Week 12.

 

NFC Playoff Breakdown

NFC Standings
NFC EASTWL
Philadelphia65
Dallas55
NY Giants46
Washington37
NFC NORTHWL
Detroit64
Chicago64
Green Bay55
Minnesota28
NFC SOUTHWL
New Orleans*82
Carolina73
Tampa Bay28
Atlanta28
NFC WESTWL
Seattle*101
San Francisco64
Arizona64
St. Louis46
NFC WILD CARDWL
Carolina73
San Francisco64
Arizona64
Chicago64
Dallas55
Green Bay55
NFL.com

Locks: NFC West (Seattle)

Likelies: NFC South (New Orleans)

Up in the Air: NFC East, NFC North

Wild, Wild Card: Seven teams within one game of No. 6 (including division leaders).

Figuring out the six playoff teams in the NFC essentially comes down to which teams come out of the NFC East and NFC North. While there are any number of scenarios that could play out over the next few weeks, it'd be a shock to see Carolina, New Orleans or San Francisco not make the playoffs.

NEW ORLEANS, LA - NOVEMBER 17:  Colin Kaepernick #7 of the San Francisco 49ers talks after the game to Dree Brews #9 of the New Orleans Saints at  Mercedes-Benz Superdome on November 17, 2013 in New Orleans, Louisiana.  The Saints defeated the 49ers 23-20
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

The likeliest of those three to drop out is the 49ers, who have massive, nearly crippling problems on offense.

Colin Kaepernick has at times resembled a less accurate, more mobile Alex Smith in Jim Harbaugh's system this year. San Francisco has been forced to rely far too much on its defense. Again. Still, the 49ers' losses over the past two weeks have come by a combined four points over Super Bowl contenders. 

They're going to be just fine.

As for the North and East, your guess is as good as mine. We can likely draw a red Sharpie line through the Redskins, who look closer to the brink of implosion than running the table like they did a year ago. The other three teams, however, all seem to have their own stake at the crown.

The Cowboys are, again, the division's most talented team if you only look at the top of their roster. Pro Bowlers past and present adorn the skill positions and parts of the defense, making for a high-priced outfit that falls apart once you get past the surface. Dallas' defense is a leaking, abhorrent mess that has allowed twice as many 400-yard passing games as any other team.

It's possible that Monte Kiffin can fix his leaky faucet, but it's becoming doubtful he'll do it on time.

PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 27: Wide receiver Hakeem Nicks #88 of the New York Giants pushes off safety Earl Wolff #28 of the Philadelphia Eagles after making a catch during the second quarter of a game at Lincoln Financial Field on October 27, 2013 in Phi
Rich Schultz/Getty Images

The Giants and Eagles, meanwhile, are coming into their own.

Nick Foles has been a revelation in Chip Kelly's offense, which has also been pretty good other than the weeks when Matt Barkley was prominently involved. The Giants have won four straight in spite of quarterback Eli Manning while allowing fewer than 12 points per contest. Over the last two weeks, they've also gotten some inspired play out of Andre Brown, who could give them a rushing game they lacked when starting 0-6.

With Aaron Rodgers' injury making way for the Scott Tolzien era in Green Bay, the NFC North likely comes down to the Bears and Lions. Detroit has more talent on both sides of the ball—some of the best talent in football, actually—but can't ever seem to get out of its own way for one or two weeks at a time. Chicago's offense heavily features Josh McCown.

You can see there's a lot left to be decided here.

 

 

AFC Playoff Breakdown

AFC Standings
AFC EASTWL
New England73
NY Jets55
Miami55
Buffalo47
AFC NORTHWL
Cincinnati74
Pittsburgh46
Cleveland46
Baltimore46
AFC SOUTHWL
Indianapolis*73
Tennessee46
Houston28
Jacksonville19
AFC WESTWL
Denver*91
Kansas City91
Oakland46
San Diego46
AFC WILD CARDWL
Kansas City91
NY Jets55
Miami55
Oakland46
Tennessee46
Pittsburgh46
Baltimore46
Cleveland46
San Diego46
NFL.com

Locks: AFC East (New England), AFC South (Indianapolis)

Likelies: AFC North (Cincinnati)

Up in the Air: AFC West

Wild, Wild Card: Eight teams within one game of No. 6 (not including division leaders).

You can pretty much lock the door and throw away the key on five of the AFC's six playoff spots. Andy Dalton seems determined to crash the orange and black bus into the river, but the defense—even without Leon Hall and Geno Atkins—doesn't seem ready to allow that to happen. Twenty-one defensive and special teams points from the Bengals against the Browns on Sunday pretty much proved that.

CINCINNATI, OH - NOVEMBER 17:  Andy Dalton #14 of the Cincinnati Bengals is sacked from behind by Jabaal Sheard #97 of the Cleveland Browns #97 during the game against the Cleveland Browns at Paul Brown Stadium on November 17, 2013 in Cincinnati, Ohio.  T
John Grieshop/Getty Images

Keeping Cincinnati in the "likelies" section is 100 percent related to the Steelers or Ravens possibly coming up from behind as Dalton finally does Cincy in. The odds aren't very good at this point, but it's still a possibility.

The loser of the AFC West will get the No. 5 seed barring some weird second-half collapse. The Patriots are winning the AFC East for the umpteenth time in a row. AFC South teams not named the Colts have won seven games—the exact same amount as Indianapolis. 

So, cool. Let's just wrap this puppy up and go home, shall we?

That would be perfectly fine if the No. 6 seed wasn't a jumbled morass of mediocrity. There are six 4-6 teams in the AFC coming into Week 12. Those teams sit behind the Jets and Dolphins, two 5-5 squads with innumerable problems.

ORCHARD PARK, NY - NOVEMBER 17: Geno Smith #7 of the New York Jets looks on from the bench after throwing an interception during NFL game action against the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium on November 17, 2013 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by To
Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

The Jets are relying on Geno Smith to lead them to the promised land. Smith has thrown twice as many interceptions as touchdowns this season and has made Blaine Gabbert look competent.

While the second-rounder has shown some flashes of potential here and there, these Jets at best feel like almost carbon copies of the Mark Sanchez-led bunches from a few years back.

At worst, they're a nightmare that could fall apart at any moment.

Back at 4-6, one could probably talk oneself into any team coming up from behind and taking that No. 6 spot. The Steelers and Ravens are the most obvious choices. Pittsburgh already holds the tiebreaker advantage over Baltimore and the Jets with one game against the Ravens remaining, and it's won four of its past six contests.

Oakland and Tennessee—well frankly, I have no idea what they're doing at the dinner table. But I'm not sure I'd like to be your friend if you aren't rooting to possibly bet against Ryan Fitzpatrick or Terrelle Pryor (or Matt McGloin!) on Wild Card Weekend. 

 

 

Super Bowl Odds Breakdown

Updated Super Bowl Odds (Thru Week 12)
TeamOdds
Denver Broncos3/1
Seattle Seahawks13/4
New Orleans Saints13/2
Carolina Panthers11/1
New England Patriots11/1
San Francisco 49ers14/1
Indianapolis Colts18/1
Kansas City Chiefs18/1
Cincinnati Bengals20/1
Detroit Lions33/1
Green Bay Packers33/1
Philadelphia Eagles33/1
Chicago Bears40/1
Dallas Cowboys40/1
New York Giants40/1
Pittsburgh Steelers75/1
Arizona Cardinals100/1
Baltimore Ravens100/1
Miami Dolphins100/1
New York Jets150/1
San Diego Chargers200/1
Tennessee Titans300/1
Washington Redskins300/1
Cleveland Browns400/1
Buffalo Bills500/1
Houston Texans500/1
Oakland Raiders500/1
St. Louis Rams500/1
Bovada.lv

Favorites: Denver (3-1), Seattle (11-4), New Orleans (13-2), New England (11-1)

The obvious choices. If you're the betting type, there really isn't all that much value to be had here. Using Football Outsiders' team DVOA rankings, the three teams with the best odds are three of the four best in football.

SEATTLE, WA. - NOVEMBER 17: Quarterback Russell Wilson #3 of the Seattle Seahawks warms up before the game against the Minnesota Vikings at CenturyLink Field on November 17, 2013 in Seattle,Wa. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)
Steve Dykes/Getty Images

Seattle is the most well-rounded team. The Seahawks rank seventh offensively, second on defense and first in special teams. With Percy Harvin returning to the fold and Seattle looking likely to gain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, these might be the best odds at which you can purchase them.

Denver and New England will likely fluctuate based on how their game goes. If it's a close contest that goes down to the last minute, we're unlikely to see much movement. But if New England dominates at home or Denver on the road, things will change awwwwfully quick.

Oh, hi, New Orleans. 

 

Coming on Strong: Carolina (11-1), Indianapolis (18-1)

That fourth team in the above-mentioned DVOA Top Four? Carolina.

The Panthers, like Seattle, are pretty well-rounded, with their worst DVOA rank (No. 15) coming on the less crucial special teams. They're also a benefactor of the NFL's longest winning streak at six games, besting New England and San Francisco in back-to-back weeks, and employing Cam Newton.

CHARLOTTE, NC - NOVEMBER 18:  Cam Newton #1 of the Carolina Panthers reacts after throwing for a touchdown against the New England Patriots during their game at Bank of America Stadium on November 18, 2013 in Charlotte, North Carolina.  (Photo by Streeter
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Things are looking up for Riverboat Ron and Co.

The Colts are just giant killers. They and the Bengals are in a dead heat for our worst seven-win team. Both can look like the worst team in football when things are going poorly. (If you lose 38-8 to Kellen Clemens, things are damn sure going poorly.)

Indy just can't be ruled out thanks to its impressive resume of victories. The Colts are the only team to beat Denver and Seattle and took down the 49ers at home. That three-win stretch is probably the most impressive of any team.

Plus, Andrew Luck has a horseshoe up his behind or something.

 

Sleepers: Detroit (33-1), Pittsburgh (75-1)

Am I drunk for putting the Steelers here? I might be drunk for putting the Steelers here. In fact, we might all be drunk.

Nov 17, 2013; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (left) celebrates a late game touchdown with tackle Marcus Gilbert (77) against the Detroit Lions during the fourth quarter at Heinz Field. The Pittsburgh Steelers won 3
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sport

But they're here, thanks to the thorough mediocrity of the AFC beyond our locked-in teams. There's no way an 0-4 Steelers team should be within a game of the playoff less than a half-season later. It's not fair. It's just not fair, signed someone who grew up around Steelers fans and got teased mercilessly for not being a Steelers fan. 

We already covered why the Lions could win it all (oodles of good players). And why they can't (their football IQ level is about as low as their talent level is high). That being said, the Ravens proved last season you don't need to be great in the regular season to win it all—just get in.

 

Follow Tyler Conway on Twitter: