Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction ColumnistOctober 1, 2013

NEW ORLEANS, LA - SEPTEMBER 30:  Lamar Miller #26 of the Miami Dolphins runs for yards against the New Orleans Saints during a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on September 30, 2013 in New Orleans, Louisiana.  (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images

The Miami Dolphins (3-1) were scorched by the Saints on Monday night and the Baltimore Ravens (2-2) literally threw away their Week 4 matchup with five interceptions.

How are the sportsbooks and the wagering public viewing this matchup?

Point spread: Dolphins opened as 3-point favorites; the total was 43. (Line updates and Matchup report)

Computer Prediction: 26.6-21.0 Dolphins


Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Baltimore, after a serious revamping over the offseason, is off to a 2-2 start in defense of its Super Bowl title. Two weeks ago the Ravens rocked the Texans, and last week, despite getting outplayed and committing five turnovers, Baltimore still came within a field goal of Buffalo. Once they work out the kinks the Ravens should be fine.


Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami already owns a couple of quality victories this season, over the Colts and Falcons, and is 3-1 ATS. Second-year QB Ryan Tannehill has hit on 66 percent of his throws this year, and seems to be making progress as a pro.

Also, before Monday night's loss at New Orleans the 'Fins defense was allowing just 17 points per game. They have also won eight of 10 SU as a home favorite dating back several seasons.


Smart Pick

The OddsShark computer is calling for a 27-21 Miami victory, but that might be giving the Dolphins too much credit. They own victories over Cleveland, Indy, and Atlanta, but all three of those teams are flawed. Baltimore is too, but QB Joe Flacco probably won't throw five interceptions again. Take the Ravens and the points.



Dolphins 8-2 SU past 10 games as home favorite

Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.