The Miami Dolphins (3-1) were scorched by the Saints on Monday night and the Baltimore Ravens (2-2) literally threw away their Week 4 matchup with five interceptions.
How are the sportsbooks and the wagering public viewing this matchup?
Point spread: Dolphins opened as 3-point favorites; the total was 43. (Line updates and Matchup report)
Computer Prediction: 26.6-21.0 Dolphins
Why the Ravens can cover the spread
Baltimore, after a serious revamping over the offseason, is off to a 2-2 start in defense of its Super Bowl title. Two weeks ago the Ravens rocked the Texans, and last week, despite getting outplayed and committing five turnovers, Baltimore still came within a field goal of Buffalo. Once they work out the kinks the Ravens should be fine.
Why the Dolphins can cover the spread
Miami already owns a couple of quality victories this season, over the Colts and Falcons, and is 3-1 ATS. Second-year QB Ryan Tannehill has hit on 66 percent of his throws this year, and seems to be making progress as a pro.
Also, before Monday night's loss at New Orleans the 'Fins defense was allowing just 17 points per game. They have also won eight of 10 SU as a home favorite dating back several seasons.
The OddsShark computer is calling for a 27-21 Miami victory, but that might be giving the Dolphins too much credit. They own victories over Cleveland, Indy, and Atlanta, but all three of those teams are flawed. Baltimore is too, but QB Joe Flacco probably won't throw five interceptions again. Take the Ravens and the points.
Dolphins 8-2 SU past 10 games as home favorite
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore