In fantasy football, there is nothing like having a solid, reliable quarterback.
Some people like to go early on a quarterback, grabbing a player high in the hopes that they can wait on a backup and grab value at other positions.
If you're going to go early on a quarterback, though, you'd best make sure you don't miss.
The biggest question mark in my book will be Tom Brady.
Listen, we know Brady is a fantastic quarterback, even as he ages. Unfortunately right now, the Patriots offense is a hot mess. Rob Gronkowski could miss the start of the season due to his numerous surgeries, Wes Welker is gone (replaced by an oft-injured but dynamic Danny Amendola) and Aaron Hernandez has been cut due to the shocking murder investigation we are watching unfold.
Aside from Amendola, there are a lot of unproven wide receivers and mediocre veterans. At tight end there is just Jake Ballard. Add to this the fact that, for the first time in a long time, the Patriots have a solid run game and you have to wonder what this means for Brady's fantasy numbers.
Where does he rank? You'll have to catch the video for that.
A few players who missed the furious five:
Stafford will give you a lot of points from the massive piles of yards he gathers, but touchdowns are often too low and his interceptions too high. The touchdowns should go up while the interceptions go down, but not enough to tip in front of the five in the video.
Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III:
I don't expect a huge drop in production for anyone (perhaps RG3 if he's not ready to go Week 1), but don't let yourself get carried away. Let's see how defenses react to what these three did last year and how their own offenses change things up.
Of the three, Luck would be the most reliable, while Griffin is the least due to his injury. That can change as the summer goes on, as we see more of him.
Add Colin Kaepernick to the list as well, especially given the injury to Michael Crabtree and the questions at wide receiver.
All four of them are top 15 picks, with Luck, Wilson and Kaepernick at the end of the top 10, but beyond that it's too early to put them amongst the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks.
While the Falcons quarterback has seen his numbers go up steadily over the last few years, he's still just short of the consistent production you want in a top-five quarterback. That said, he's on the cusp and if you wait for the mad scramble over the top five to die down, Ryan is a very good choice for your starting fantasy quarterback. Let everyone else fight over the guys in the video and grab value elsewhere and Ryan a little later.
Andrew Garda is a member of the Pro Football Writers Association. He's also a member of the fantasy football staff at Footballguys and the NFL writer at CheeseheadTV.com. You can follow him at @andrew_garda.