How Colin Moran Going No. 1 Would Shake Up the 2013 MLB Draft's Top 10

With the experts talking up prospects like Byron Buxton and Mark Appel, the Houston Astros went somewhat against the grain when they chose prep shortstop Carlos Correa No. 1 overall in 2012.

If ESPN's Keith Law is to be believed, the Astros could do so again with the No. 1 pick this year.

In his latest mock draft—ESPN Insider required—Law says the "buzz within the industry" has the Astros taking North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran with the No. 1 pick. Moran is only the No. 9 prospect on Law's big board and the No. 7 prospect on Baseball America's big board, but the Astros could pick him to have more leeway with their bonus allotment for the first 10 rounds.

Baseball America's Jim Callis wrote in his most recent mock draft that he's not buying the Moran-to-Houston buzz, but Moran going No. 1 would definitely shake up the look of the top 10.

Law obviously gave his take on what the top 10 will look like if Moran goes No. 1 overall. The following is an alternate take.

Chicago Cubs at No. 2

If the Astros take Moran No. 1, the Cubs' decision-makers are probably going to be jumping for joy and high-fiving one another, for the Cubs would have their choice of the top two pitchers in the 2013 draft class: Stanford's Mark Appel and Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray.

Alex Ruppenthal of CSNChicago.com recently acknowledged that it's very likely to be one or the other for the Cubs given the organization's lack of young impact arms, but the Cubs have obviously given very little indication of which way they're leaning. 

Law, however, said he's heard that Cubs boss Theo Epstein is rather infatuated with Gray, whom Law acknowledged in his big board might have better pure stuff than Appel. Since Baseball America has Gray as the No. 1 overall prospect this year with stuff comparable to that of 2011 No. 1 overall pick Gerrit Cole, that's not necessarily just one man's opinion.

Law has the Cubs taking Appel simply because he has him down as the best prospect in the draft, but there's at least an equal chance that Gray will be the one ticketed for the North Side and a potential spot atop the Cubs' starting rotation one day.

Pick: Jonathan Gray

Colorado Rockies at No. 3

If Moran goes No. 1 to the Astros, the Rockies will be lined up for a decision that will probably have the organization divided down the middle.

Law says the Rockies have been linked to powerful San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant and that the industry speculation has generally had them fixed on hitters. But if Appel, arguably the best prospect in the draft class, is there for the taking, will the Rockies be able to pass him up?

The choice would probably make Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd and his underlings squirm. The last Stanford pitcher the Rockies took in the top five of the draft was Grey Reynolds at No. 2 overall in 2006, and he never panned out.

For that matter, the Rockies can be forgiven if they have a sense of fatalism when it comes to drafting pitching in general, as the organization's, ahem, circumstances, make drafting pitchers the ultimate risky venture.

But I'm willing to believe the Rockies will go for Appel if he's there. 

Callis noted in his mock that the Rockies will go for the whichever of the three best prospects is on the board, and that would mean Appel over Bryant.

Plus, the organization is in a sort of unique position to embrace the idea of bringing a stud pitcher aboard. The Rockies named Mark Wiley director of pitching operations last October, and he's hard at work trying to solve the Rockies' longstanding pitching problem.

Handing Wiley a shiny new toy like Appel would be one way for the Rockies to show him that they trust him.

Pick: Mark Appel

Minnesota Twins at No. 4

From the sound of things, you'd think that the Twins and Kohl Stewart, a prep right-hander out of Houston, were already joined at the hip.

Law, Callis and MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo all have Stewart going to the Twins at No. 4, and understandably so. The organization has a need for pitching depth, and Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com recently wrote that the Twins have scouted every single pitch Stewart has thrown over the last few years.

But if Moran goes first, Gray goes second and Appel goes third, would the Twins pass up a chance to draft Bryant?

I think not.

The Twins didn't pass on Buxton at No. 2 after the Astros passed him up last year, thus taking the best player available. That's what teams are supposed to do in the draft, and it's worth noting that Callis wrote in his mock that the Twins will jump on one of the big three—Appel, Gray or Bryant—if they get a chance.

So count on the Twins jumping on Bryant if he falls to them.

Pick: Kris Bryant

Cleveland Indians at No. 5

No. 5 to Cleveland is probably where Moran should be going in the draft, but things are going to be mighty interesting in the Indians' war room if he goes No. 1 and the other pieces fall in line like they have in my humble little exercise.

There doesn't appear to be a consensus about Cleveland's backup plans if it can't get Moran or one of the big three, but one name dropped by both Law and Callis as a possibility is Clint Frazier, a prep outfielder from Georgia.

Frazier only makes the grade as the No. 7 prospect in the country on Law's big board, but he checks in at No. 4 on both Baseball America's and Mayo's big boards.

Frazier gets top marks for his bat speed, and he has the kind of raw power and decent athleticism to one day make it as a corner outfielder.

A lineup featuring Frazier and Francisco Lindor one day in the near future? Sounds like a hot ticket.

Pick: Clint Frazier

Miami Marlins at No. 6

We all might as well write down the best pick for the Marlins at No. 6 in pen at this point.

Law thinks the Marlins are going to take Nevada right-hander Braden Shipley. So does Callis. So does Mayo. 

I won't argue. As Callis wrote, the Marlins have been linked to Shipley for a while now, and he makes sense for the organization. Shipley is the best college pitcher on the board after Gray and Appel, and college pitchers tend to get to the major leagues more quickly than high school pitchers.

That's the sort of reality that would appeal to a Marlins organization that needs major league ready prospects more than most. Gotta fill those seats, you know.

Not that picking Shipley sixth overall would be a reach, mind you. He has a plus fastball and changeup and a curveball that has a chance to be a dandy. He has the potential to one day be Jose Fernandez's co-ace.

Pick: Braden Shipley

Boston Red Sox at No. 7

If Moran goes No. 1 and the pieces fall as I've outlined, the Red Sox could be staring at their ideal scenario.

Callis recently said in a talk with WEEI.com's Alex Speier that Boston "really, really, really wants" Kohl Stewart. There's a decent chance he could fall to the Red Sox at No. 7.

Stewart is going to be a tricky sign, seeing as how he has a football commitment to Texas A&M to use as leverage, but Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal wrote that that wouldn't keep the Red Sox from picking him.

The Red Sox would likely have to give Stewart the bulk of the roughly $6.8 million they have to spend (see Baseball America) in the first 10 rounds, meaning they'd have to draft less with talent in mind and more with money in mind after the No. 7 pick.

I can see them doing that, however, as Stewart is the best prep arm in the draft and would be a fine grab at No. 7 overall.

Pick: Kohl Stewart

Kansas City Royals at No. 8

Callis wrote in his mock that it's going to be an upset if the Royals don't take a pitcher with the No. 8 pick.

Exactly which pitcher is going to be in play for them is the hard part.

Law says that the Royals are intent on taking a college arm and has them going for Arkansas right-hander Ryne Stanek, but Callis isn't so sure they're that enthused with Stanek. Besides which, going for Stanek would mean passing up the top prep arm still on the board.

That would be Trey Ball, who, in addition to being the best high school pitcher available after Stewart, is the best left-hander of any kind this year. Ball is raw as a pitcher, but he has a live arm that allows him to sit in the mid-to-low 90s with secondary stuff that has potential.

Ball also has another thing going for him: If he doesn't make it as a pitcher, he could always be transitioned to the outfield. As Law noted in his big board, Ball is actually talented enough as an outfielder to be drafted at the position.

So while maybe he's not an ideal pick, going for Ball would be the relatively safe route for the Royals.

Pick: Trey Ball

Pittsburgh Pirates at No. 9

Sort of like the Marlins and Shipley and No. 6, there appears to be something going on at No. 9 between the Pirates and prep catcher Reese McGuire.

Law, Callis and Mayo all have the Pirates going for McGuire in their most recent mocks, and Law noted that Pirates GM Neal Huntington has actually flown to go see McGuire twice.

That's a sign that there's a legit infatuation at work, as that's a lot of time and air miles to waste on a mere smokescreen. 

The infatuation is not necessarily misplaced if one indeed exists. McGuire has the defensive skills to stick behind the plate, and he has a quality swing from the left side of the plate.

McGuire's hitting needs more development than his catching, but that's worth the gamble for the Pirates because they stand to get a star-caliber catcher if things go well.

Pick: Reese McGuire

Toronto Blue Jays at No. 10

Considering the extent to which Toronto's farm system was gutted for hugely disappointing returns, the Blue Jays absolutely cannot afford to misfire with the No. 10 pick in this year's draft.

There's no indication as to which way Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos is leaning, but Callis wrote that "high-ceiling talent" will be on the menu. B/R's own Adam Wells narrowed Toronto's focus down to "high-upside athletes."

Austin Meadows could be just the guy for the Blue Jays. Mayo wrote in his rankings that Meadows has five-tool potential and that he can "do it all" out on the diamond, and the general thinking is that Meadows is going to be a heck of a hitter who might be able to play anywhere in the outfield.

Sounds like a guy the Blue Jays could, you know, actually hold on to.

Pick: Austin Meadows

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