Jhonny Peralta and 6 Others Providing Huge Seasons in Walk Year of Contract
Teams in need of a shortstop in 2014—the A's, Cardinals, Mariners, Pirates, Tigers, Twins and Yankees are my early picks—will have slim pickings on the free-agent market next offseason with Stephen Drew and Jhonny Peralta the best of the bunch.
Limited options in free agency was likely the reason that Peralta, who turns 31 Tuesday, had his $6 million club option picked up by Detroit after a 2012 season in which he posted a subpar .689 OPS. Now, the lack of options for the aforementioned teams will help Peralta out again. But it's mostly his performance (.892 OPS through 45 games) that could net him the biggest contract of his career.
Peralta isn't spectacular at shortstop, but he continues to be a steady and reliable defender (his 4.21 range factor is third in the AL; his .985 fielding percentage is second in the AL). After reporting to camp 20 pounds lighter, teams could have less concern about his ability to stay at the position for the next few years and would very likely be willing to shell out a three-year deal in the $27-$42 million range.
He will have earned $16.75 million over the past three seasons once his current contract expires, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him double that. Here are six others who are maximizing their market value with strong seasons.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cincinnati Reds
1 of 62013 Salary: $7,375,000
2013 Stats: .290 BA, 10 HR, 20 RBI, 11 2B, 37 BB, 47 K, 5 SB in 49 games
It's doubtful that Choo is any team's starting center fielder in 2014—his lack of range and above-average arm make him a much better fit in right field—but he will be hitting somewhere in the top third of a lineup and will be getting paid a lot of money to do so.
As the Reds' leadoff hitter, the 30-year-old Choo has a .442 on-base percentage and is on pace to score more than 120 runs. He could also eclipse 25 homers, giving his agent all the ammunition he needs to argue that his client should be paid as one of the top hitters in the game.
The Cubs, Mets and Yankees could be amongst the most aggressive bidders for corner outfield help, as will Choo's original team, the Mariners, who have just one of their current outfielders (Michael Saunders) under contract for 2014.
Current projection: Five years, $75 million
Jesse Crain, RHP, Chicago White Sox
2 of 62013 Salary: $4,500,000
2013 Stats: 0.78 ERA, 23 IP, 16 H, 8 BB, 31 K, 15 holds in 26 appearances
The 31-year-old has been nagged by injuries this season, but he's dominated when healthy. He's currently on a streak of 18.1 innings of scoreless ball with six walks and 25 strikeouts.
At this rate, Crain could easily match fellow setup man Mike Adams' two-year, $12 million contract (2013-14, plus $6 million club option for 2015) with the Phillies.
With the closing market looking very weak at this point—Grant Balfour would currently be at the top of a short list—Crain could also get his first shot to be a team's closer, although his lack of experience likely means he'd have to do it at a setup man's cost.
Current projection: Two years, $12 million
Scott Feldman, RHP, Chicago Cubs
3 of 62013 Salary: $6,000,000
2013 Stats: 2.80 ERA, 54.2 IP, 46 H, 19 BB, 44 K in 9 starts
Not only is Feldman proving that the Cubs didn't overpay him at $6 million this season (plus $1 million in incentives), he could be on his way to a multi-year deal with an average of at least $8 million per season.
The 30-year-old, who was beat up by the Reds in his last start (5.1 IP, 5 ER), had been on a streak of five consecutive quality starts and had a 4-1 record with a 1.34 ERA over his last six starts. He'll be a highly coveted trade candidate in July and could be equally as popular when the free-agency period begins in November.
Current projection: Three years, $26 million
Kelly Johnson, 2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays
4 of 62013 Salary: $2,450,000
2013 Stats: .296 BA, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 5 2B, 2 3B, 14 BB, 38 K, 5 SB in 43 games
The Rays found themselves a bargain this offseason, inking Johnson to a one-year, $2.45 million deal after he hit 16 homers and stole 14 bases for the Jays last season. His overall numbers (.678 OPS, 159 strikeouts) and a lack of teams in need of a second baseman were the reasons he came so cheaply.
It's left field, however, where Johnson has found a home in Tampa. With top prospect Wil Myers expected to arrive in the majors at some point, the 31-year-old Johnson is making a case not to be the odd man out once he does.
Since April 26th, Johnson is hitting .364 with 27 runs batted in and 14 extra-base hits (7 HR, 5 2B, 2 3B). Tommy Rancel explained why Johnson has improved so much in this recent ESPN.com article.
Current projection: Two years, $15 million
James Loney, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
5 of 62013 Salary: $2,000,000
2013 Stats: .335 BA, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 13 2B, 17 BB, 19 K, 2 SB in 50 games
Projected to be a future batting champ while in the Dodgers' farm system, Loney proceeded to hit .321 in his first 144 big league games between 2006 and 2007.
Multiple batting titles must've followed, right? Wrong. Loney hit .276 over the past five seasons, including a career-low .249 in 2012 before the Rays signed him at a discounted rate this past offseason.
That batting champ thing might not ever happen, especially while Miguel Cabrera (.377 BA) is in the league, but Loney is currently 10th in baseball with a .335 batting average. He has seven three-hit games and has handled left-handed (.898 OPS) and right-handed (.889 OPS) pitching equally well.
Even if he keeps up with this pace, he won't go into the offseason without concerns. Teams will be doing their homework and trying to figure out what happened to Loney in 2012 and what he's doing differently in Tampa Bay this season.
Loney's value will never be too high because of his lack of home-run power, so staying in Tampa Bay is certainly a possibility. The 29-year-old might even take less to remain in a situation that he's obviously comfortable with.
Current projection: Two years, $14 million
Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B, Cleveland Indians
6 of 62013 Salary: $6,000,000
2013 Stats: .259 BA, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 7 2B, 21 BB, 52 K, 2 SB in 49 games
After a terrible April of 2012, Reynolds posted an .811 OPS the rest of the way with 23 homers, 66 runs batted and solid defense at first base for the Orioles. It wasn't surprising, however, that he only received a one-year deal this offseason given his reputation as a strikeout machine who has been error-prone as a third baseman.
But if you look at it from another angle, Reynolds is a 29-year-old who can play multiple positions, has hit 40-plus homers in a season and can carry a team when he's hot, then you figure his agent can make a pretty good argument for a multi-year deal this winter.
Reaching 30 homers—he's on pace for 38—for the fourth time in five seasons would also increase Reynolds' value. He'll have plenty of company on the first base market in November, including Loney, Corey Hart, Kendrys Morales, Justin Morneau and Mike Napoli, but what if Reynolds outplays all of them in 2013? Some team will probably give him a lot of money.
Current projection: Three years, $36 million

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