The draft is less than one month away. Glenn Dorsey has mostly dispelled rumors of his injury status with a good pro day. All the other pro days now completed, there is no more information to come in.
That means we have all we need to start the mock drafts in earnest, with a real chance that they might be in some way accurate.
My predictions and reasoning regarding drafts in the top four (barring any trades) is as follows:
Miami, Matt Ryan, QB
I know that conventional wisdom has the Dolphins going with Chris Long here, but I don’t buy it. You don’t rebuild a franchise with a defensive end, you do it with a QB.
Does anyone believe that John Beck is the answer? No, I thought not.
Bill Parcells will want a quality signal caller to take things forward in Miami, and Ryan is certainly that. What makes him even more attractive is that there is no one in the senior QB class from next year’s class that would be top prospects.
So if not Ryan, then who? If Parcells really wants a star linebacker for a three-four defense, then Vernon Gholston is a better fit than Long in any event.
St. Louis, Jake Long, T
There has been talk of the Rams taking Glenn Dorsey or Chris Long here, but after selecting Adam Carriker last year, I don’t believe they will go defensive line two years in a row.
They need offensive linemen. Marc Bulger looked like a bad QB last year. He isn’t. The problem was that they couldn’t keep him upright or healthy. Orlando Pace is just about done, and the Rams will take his replacement in Jake Long.
Atlanta, Glenn Dorsey, DT
With Ryan off the board, the Falcons take the best defensive tackle in the draft in Glenn Dorsey.
Dorsey has been compared to a young Warren Sapp, which is praise indeed. The Falcons had big problems against the run last year, and with Rod Coleman gone they have a hole to fill at defensive tackle.
Dorsey is well worth the No. 3 pick here and is capable of lifting a whole defense with his play.
Matt Ryan is the guy they want, but he is already off the board.
Oakland, Chris Long, DE
Whatever players the Raiders have brought in, whatever money they have spent in other areas, they still have to address the defensive line. If they can’t stop the run they won’t win games.
Tommy Kelly is only one piece in the puzzle and Kalimba Edwards and William Joseph are not the answer, only depth.
Al Davis loves his Raider heritage, and you can’t get much better than the son of perhaps the greatest Raider ever. If Chris Long is on the board here, he doesn’t get past Oakland.
If Long is gone, Vernon Gholston is the kind of athletic freak Davis loves. A wild card pick would be Darren McFadden, but I don’t see it as the Oakland backfield is already well stocked.
Other Thoughts
· Matt Ryan doesn’t get past Atlanta at No. 3.
· Darren McFadden will be the big slip in this year’s draft.
· Vernon Gholston is this year's wild card, he could go anywhere from the top slot down. But he doesn’t get past the Jets at No. 6.
It is going to be an interesting draft this year, and Oakland picks in a good spot at No. 4. Even in a worst case scenario, we end up with a very good player.
It certainly looks to be a better season for Oakland this year, and whatever you think of Al Davis, no one can say he doesn’t do everything in his power to make the Raiders a winning team.
Here is to a last hurrah for Al!
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6 months ago
ehhh Without a doubt hes guna be a raider if hes still on the board but I Dont think Matt Ryan is a top 5.
But you never know it might happen rite?...I want Chris Long or Vernon Gholston to be a raider though we need a defensive end. Darren Mcfadden is so overrated I mean why does every draft board having raiders getting him? We have our next feature back who is Michael Bush!!! McFadden always runs to the outside too which raiders dont run to the outside ya feel?
Go Raiders!!!!
6 months ago
Finally we are making sense...Thank you
6 months ago
not guna happen they trade down nd get extra picks along wit a later pick
6 months ago
I agree. We should trade down and get more picks. It would be nice to get Chris Long. But he's gonna be off the board before we pick. He's going to Miami or St.Louis. Miami Atlanta or Baltimore is going to take Matt Ryan. I really want Chris Long. He's perfect for the Raiders. There's history here in Oakland. His dad played here and it would be great to have him play here as well.
6 months ago
The problem with this analysis is that Atlanta also went DT in the first round with Jamal Anderson last year. Same as St. Louis.
6 months ago
TRading down seems like the way to go.. but this is Al Davis and he never goes the "Way to go"
I ain't to prophet but if Lil Howies there at 4? He's a Raider!
Mcfadden is a FAD!!! Get over him ALREADY!!! I wouldn't be surprises if he falls maybe all the way to Dallas.
Al's wheelin and dealin like he's never whelt and delt before and I LIKE IT!!!!
GO RAIDERS!!!!!!
6 months ago
My reply to Rob's article on DMac last week was i guaranteed the Raiders would take Chris Long if he was on the board at #4, i also said the Raiders can run,pass and stop the pass but they cannot stop the run and Al's pissed and i said his pick will be Long,Gholdston,Dorsey or Ellis in that order (with the #4 pick,not going to trade down).. Now Kiff is backing my way of thinking.. Go Raiders.... jim
6 months ago
No, Jamal Anderson is a DE, not a DT. You probably got confused, based on the incredibly fact that he started all 16 games at DE and did not manage a single sack. Matt Ryan is certainly the Falcons first choice, with Dorsey second.
6 months ago
We all know deep down inside that Al Davis will pick McFadden with his world class speed so stop your wishfull thinking and get ready to welcome D Mac to the Silver and Black! Go Raidaaaz!!!!
6 months ago
We all know deep down inside that Al Davis will pick McFadden because of his world class speed no matter what Kiffin says so you all need to stop dreaming and get ready to welcome D Mac to the Silver and Black!!!!! Go Raidaaaaz!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
6 months ago
"dmac" bust! i dont see him doing anything in the nfl.felix jones his teamate plays better than him.we need a star player like dorsey,ellis,long,gholston,or keith rivers.these are all cant miss picks.
6 months ago
Think so, well here's one for you (trade down,not gonna happen)but the #4 pick and CB Washington to Miami for #1 pick Chris Long... Al gets what Al wants...Go Raiders
6 months ago
good posts but Al has never and will never "trade down."
6 months ago
some good posts but one thing, Al has never and will never trade down.
6 months ago
chris long should be the only true pick the raiders should consider, to not take howie's son would be an injustice to all raider fans, we need heart and chris would bring it!
6 months ago
No way in hell Chris Long falls to #4! He is the best player in the draft period. Long has zero character issues that Parcell's looks for. Will I be ecstatic if we do wind up with Chris Long? Hell yes I will be doing back flips..but cmon man that is one hell of a pipedream if anyone logically think Long will drop that far. If anyone drops far it will be Vernon Gholston. I don't understand why everyone is still ranting about the guy, just because of his damned bench press at the combine? big deal. I watched him for 3 years at Ohio State. 2 big games against Michigan and Wisconson does not constitute a stellar career..sorry Buckeyes he is over rated wayyyyyyyyyyyy over rated.
6 months ago
lame
6 months ago
I see the Raiders filling every glaring need in free agency. With tom cable working the offensive line he has turned a bad group of run blockers to a very respectable group coming in 6th in the league in rushing yards with Justin fargas no less. We don't need Mc fadden we need a run stopper on the D-line and a Left tackle if we don't get Jake Long in the draft we go Vernon Gholston. Noone will trade up to #4 its too risky and the cost is too great for the players that will be there in this spot. I agree we need to trade down but it wont happen. R8RNATN
6 months ago
It will if Run DMC is on the board still on the board!
6 months ago
Yes its true that way we may not need Darren Mcfadden, But i believe we sure as hell could use him. The minnesota vikings didnt 'need' AP last season with Chestor Taylor in the backfield, but they were aware of the spark he could provide. And boy did he. I can see this 3 tandem here with Fargas, Bush, and Mcfadden being real special. Defense's are going to HAVE to respect the run, put 9 in the box. Could even use DMAC as a decoy in the slot and boom there you go JR.... Walker, Carter, Curry or Miller to keep moving the chains. If Mcfadden is there, take him. We have players to trade to get a late first
6 months ago
There isn't a team in the AFL (arena) that would give up a high round draft pick for Rout, Washington or both together, let alone one in the NFL. They were drafted too high to begin with. Not to mention that both were non-factors for most of the year. You don't give up a high pick to get an average nickel player. The Raiders would be lucky to get a third for the pair. Gholston is a workout queen. Leave him for the Suck-o's. Ellis would be a much better pick then the clown from "The oh_no_we_choked_again State Blackeyes". He is much more consistant. Plus, Kiff recruited him to USC. Run DMC can "walk his way" to someone other then the Raiders. Thanks but no thanks. We have had enough whiney az RB's that can't take on linemen. DM isn't Bo. Never will be. He couldn't carry Marcus Allen's jock for a 4 yard gain! Give Bush a chance to loose the job. Everyone knows that Fargas will go down by week 9 with an injury, so we should see what Bush can do. I would love to see C. Long in a Raider's uniform as much as anyone else, but I just can't see that happening. Stranger things have happened, especially where the Raiders are concerned, so I will keep my fingers crossed come draft day. Let's just hope they don't draft another "can't miss" prospect like Gallery.
6 months ago
I don't think Al paid 55mil (Walker) to move the chains.. The spark/homerun hitter on offense is already signed (JR)... If we had only one good running back (like the vik's did) then i would agree with you 100% about DMac but that is not the case. When everyone see's Bush in action along with Fargas/Rhodes you will be greatful we did not take a running back.."Defense"....Go Raiders
6 months ago
Dorsey is the best player of the draft. C.Long is the best DE of the draft. DMAC is extremely risky but so is everything we have done in the off season so what the hell do we care. Gholston has the biggest potential but we have all been familiarized with the term potential with out naming names. J.Long is the best tackle but with Cable in command of the line, in Cable do I trust! We don't need a QB and a receiver should be had but not as glaring of a need as DL/OL. Picking up Wade as a center could be huge and hopefully is. We also have draft trade options in the shape of RB's Jordan, Rhodes, CB's Washington,Routt , TE's Madsen, Stewart & a QB A.Walters. This is what we have to work with so now that you know what will Al do?
Al wants to win and win now. So in that spirit what would make the most sense?
Option A) the sentimental pick. I agree with someone who posted Al might move up and take C. Long as Davis is a very nostalgic guy.
Option B) With the win now mentality he picks up McFadden. What other position helps you win now more than RB? Thought so.
Option C) The sensible choice. Trade down and help your team fill holes through the draft and trade down even if its just for one more pick in the middle rounds. With the trade baits in place I doubt Al will trade down, choosing to trade players for picks instead.
Either way Al has done a good job thus far and expect it to continue during and after the draft.
Now lets see kid Kif coach these players and hold his coaches especially his DC to hold their end of the bargain and if he has to take over defensive drills and teach the proper techniques of tackling in the NFL.
LARaider70
6 months ago
Darren Mcfadden will not fall in this years draft too much talent
6 months ago
Best move to improve the Raiders record is by picking up a run stuffer. Either Ellis or Dorsey would be a great addition to the DL. Being a USC homer I would rather see Ellis in S&B than Dorsey. NFL Network reported from USC's pro day that Ellis weighed in at 298 lbs, ran a 5.02 40, and put up 36 reps. Very similar to what Dorsey did. Only difference is Ellis doesn't have the injury history. I also feel that Ellis played aginst a higher level of competition then Dorsey did. Stress fractures in your legs hurt like hell and can come back very easily. I just want to see someone come in and play at the ability level they are being projected to have and not spend 75% of their careers on the IR.
6 months ago
I agree with the Anonymous comment above. Glenn Dorsey is the best player in the draft. That is who I want on my Oakland Raiders. Can't miss with him. He's the next Warren Sapp.
6 months ago
And I also agree with RaiderNation951. The injury factor of Glenn Dorsey is a worry of mine. And Sedrick Ellis is a homer. He played at USC. Not far from Oakland. Coach Kiffin is a USC guy. Ellis is a home grown player. And I think he would also be a good fit in the Raiders D-Line.
6 months ago
Dolphins will not take Matt Ryan. They need Jake Long because they only have 1 tackle under contract, so tackle is a much bigger need. It doesn't matter who your QB is if there isn't anyone to block for him. Also, with the 32nd pick, they will probably have a choice between Brohm, Flacco, and Henne, all of whom I feel could be better QBs than Ryan.
6 months ago
As everyone,I would love to see Howie's son in Silver & Black !!!! But,I also don't think he'll be there.
If he's there take him,otherwise it has to be DMAC. With DMAC and Bush,it would take us back to Bo & Allen. Look what Peterson did for Minnasota and DMAC is a better back !!!! Something else to think about: If we pass up DMAC,the Sqaw's,might just take him behind us. Then,we'll have to deal with him twice a year,for years to come. I don't like that senario and neither should any of you. I would rather shove DMAC down everyones throat,than have him shoved down ours. So, what do you think about that senario. Haywood Jablome Eggin
6 months ago
I agree;if Howie's kid is there take him. But if not,I have another senario to run by everyone.
Look what Peterson did for Minnasota last year and DMAC is a better back !!!!!!!!!!! Here's my senario:
Long is long gone,Raiders pick whoever(but it's not DMAC). Then we hear with the 5th pick KC takes
DMAC. OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH NO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!,now we have to face him twice a year,for years to come. Plus Larry Johnson for the rest of his career,not a good thought,but it could easily happen. Is that what you really want ???!!!!!!!!!!! I say take DMAC and shove him down their throat !!!! Otherwise,we'll have to deal with him in a SQAW uniform !!!!!!! Now that I have put this senario forward. What does the rest of Raider Nation think ?????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Heywood Jablome Eggin
6 months ago
We have fargas and bush. I do not think that fargas will have as good of a year as last. But he earned the chance for another look. I wish we would have gave bush a chance last year. But i think we need to even talent across the field. And we already have a strong back backfield. Just replace jordan with some one that can run something other then their mouth.
Washingtonraider
6 months ago
The raiders should take darren mcfadden at #4 and let kiffin work the same magic with D-Mac that he worked with reggie bush at USC! Kiffin could make Mcfadden into a very dangerous weapon ven without him running between the tackles
6 months ago
Yet another poorly researched mock draft.
Atlanta doesn't want Matt Ryan, and won't be taking him even if he is available.
Atlanta's GM and Head Coach have both said that they "don't believe in the first round QB" theory.
Nobody wants to draft the next Jay Cutler, and certainly not with the 3rd overall pick.
Atlanta will take an OT or DT.
6 months ago
You are a fellow Raider fan, but take it easy on my Bucks. Looks like you may be a jaded Michigan fan or something. The Bucks may have lost two Championship games in a row, but at least they were there. Get used to it because with Pryor on board, they will be challenging for the National Title for the next 4 years guaranteed.
On the Raiders, forget about McFadden. We need run stoppers on defense. i doubt Long will slip to #4 so the choice will have to be Dorsey. Dorsey and Kelly in the middle, with Burgess and Edwards outside will get the job done.
6 months ago
i just have to make a comment on the fact that people are saying that vernon is overrated. probably the dumbest comment i have ever heard. not only does he have the biggest upside in the draft with height, speed, agility, talent, room to gain weight, but he also can play de or olb. if the raiders take him, he can be something special playing opposite burgess. back to the fact that u guys said he was overrated. maybe u forget he broke the sack record at osu in a single season. a record owned by mike vrabel... lets pray if the raiders get him hes HALF as good as him... maybe u also forget the amazing game he played against florida up there anonymous. but i would rather have chris long
just win baby
6 months ago
i just have to make a comment on the fact that people are saying that vernon is overrated. probably the dumbest comment i have ever heard. not only does he have the biggest upside in the draft with height, speed, agility, talent, room to gain weight, but he also can play de or olb. if the raiders take him, he can be something special playing opposite burgess. back to the fact that u guys said he was overrated. maybe u forget he broke the sack record at osu in a single season. a record owned by mike vrabel... lets pray if the raiders get him hes HALF as good as him... maybe u also forget the amazing game he played against florida up there anonymous. but i would rather have chris long
just win baby
6 months ago
run dmc is so overrated. his legs go dead after a hit, he only runs outside and he has only average agility. sure he ran 4.33 but didnt routt asnd fabian do something similar? man, i'm sure glad their speed has paid off and made them the best. dmc is not the answer. we need a dt to plug up the line. we got ran all over last year and then when teams did play action we were screwed because they knew wed bite. no mcfadden. go with a dt even if it is reaching for ellis
6 months ago
I also don't see Chris Long that far down. I believe the Raiders will take Sedrick Ellis to clog though middle.
6 months ago
Either Gholston or Chris Long should be available based on Miami's need for a QB....but I believe Chris Long will be taken before the Raiders select 4th.
However, a lot has been made about Miami trading their first rounder to the Cowgirls. Not gonna happen.
Try this out for size:
Miami trades 1st overall and a 2nd rounder to Cleveland for Brady Quinn.
Cleveland selects the last piece of their rebuilding puzzle....Chris Long.
Miami gets the QB they should have selected last year for a fraction of the cost.
StLouis selects J.Long
Atlanta selects M.Ryan ( ATL owner wants him, and he needs the image makeover )
Raiders select V.Gholston ( think AL will like this guy next to Burgess )
DMAC Note: No Way!!!! The Raiders have a better rb in M.Bush who (if healthy) will make people ask who Reggie Bush was????
Tony from Canada
6 months ago
90 percent of the time mcfadden has a 6' wide 25' long hallway to run through. My granny could move the chains with that kind of protection. Give the line some credit. I am not saying he is not a good player but I think he is overated at a top ten pick. He whould be a great pick if we traded down and did not have other extreme needs. Lets give fargas a chance. If he goes down hopefully bush will have the 2 years of dust ran off his cleats. Rhodes also showed some decent ability last year. The giants proved that d overcomes offense. we will not win if we cant stop the run. I am sick of watching LT run through us like he is playing ball with his kids.
washingtonstateraider
6 months ago
90 percent of the time mcfadden has a 6' wide 25' long hallway to run through. My granny could move the chains with that kind of protection. Give the line some credit. I am not saying he is not a good player but I think he is overated at a top ten pick. He whould be a great pick if we traded down and did not have other extreme needs. Lets give fargas a chance. If he goes down hopefully bush will have the 2 years of dust ran off his cleats. Rhodes also showed some decent ability last year. The giants proved that d overcomes offense. we will not win if we cant stop the run. I am sick of watching LT run through us like he is playing ball with his kids.
washingtonstateraider
6 months ago
There no way McFadden is this years big talent that falls. Hes top four on everyones big board. The Jest will be the likely candidate to take him. He has a private work out scheduled in New York in the coming weeks. I do believe The Raiders have interest in him just like the Falcons but look around the league and rushing yards are gained my committee. The guaranteed money is so much it can be spread over two players in other positions. The early success of Adrian Peterson has to do with much of the hype surrounding the young talented kid from Arkansas. Remember most RB'S and QB'S rely on an "offensive system". The knowledge and experience of a certain system dictates where FA'S end up. Look at Alex Smiths career. ow many different coordinators. Look at Leniharts carrer how many different 'cag'- orators. Couldnt resist.
6 months ago
As a fins fan I hope to see them pick one of the Longs with the #1 overall pick. Maybe pick up Henne in the 2nd round.
6 months ago
Didn't he say? Chris Long can't go to 1. or 2. Miami can't (no one else can) start a franchise with a DE.
Rams won't draft 2 DE's in a row.
6 months ago
KC dosen't have a bad D-line, right?NO
There definitely won't be a lineman to pick at #5, right?NO all has been said.
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