Week 10 NFL Picks: Home Teams Sure to Cover Massive Spreads

Rick WeinerFeatured ColumnistNovember 9, 2012

PITTSBURGH, PA - OCTOBER 28:  Ben Roethlisberger #7 of the Pittsburgh Steelers throws a pass during the game against the Washington Redskins on October 28, 2012 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
Joe Sargent/Getty Images


It's not always a bad thing to take the ridiculous favorite.

Especially in the NFL, where by now we know pretty clearly which teams are the haves and the have-nots—who can compete with the best and who just doesn't belong. 

With that in mind, here are some heavy favorites playing at home that you can feel confident getting behind this weekend.

All lines courtesy of Vegasinsider.com.


Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-11): Sunday, Nov. 11, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS

In each of the past 11 seasons, the Bills have traveled to Foxboro to take on the Patriots. Every time, Buffalo returns home a loser. The Patriots have won three of their last four meetings with the Bills, regardless of location, by an average of 27 points.

The Bills defense is allowing 31 points per game, second most in the NFL, while no team averages as many points as the Patriots offense does, dropping nearly 33 per game on the opposition.

Not only will the Bills' losing streak in Foxboro reach 12 games, but they'll do so in a blowout fashion, with the Patriots easily covering the 11-point spread.




Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5): Sunday, Nov. 11, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS

Baltimore has yet to lose at home in 2012 and that won't change on Sunday against the Raiders.

While Carson Palmer has the Raiders' passing game ranked as a top-10 unit in the NFL, the Ravens' defense is simply too talented, even without Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb, for Palmer to overcome.

Look for Ray Rice to carry the ball early and often against a Raiders defense that struggles to stop the run, and the Ravens to keep their one-game edge over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North as they cover the spread.




Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5): Monday, Nov. 12, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Chiefs are debating between Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn to start against the Steelers on Monday night.

Neither one has a chance against a formidable Steelers defense who shut down Eli Manning and a prolific Giants passing game last week.

Kansas City has been getting outscored by nearly two touchdowns per game so far in 2012. That trend will continue against the Steelers, who have yet to drop a game at Heinz Field this season.