Week 6 NFL Picks: Favorites That Are Surefire Locks to Cover the Spread

Mike Shiekman@TheRealShiekFeatured ColumnistOctober 14, 2012

FOXBORO, MA - OCTOBER 7:   Wes Welker #83 of the New England Patriots reacts in the end zone with teammate Tom Brady #12 after a touchdown against the Denver Broncos in the first half at Gillette Stadium on October 7, 2012 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
Jim Rogash/Getty Images

The Week 6 lines present a bunch of tasty opportunities to get key numbers with the underdogs. Most games are being handicapped at 3.5 points or more, better known as a sharp's dream.

Taking the points, though, presents a ton of trap bets against some favored teams who pose terrible matchups for the underdogs. Vegas has those lines above a field goal for one simple reason: These favorites are that good.

Don’t get tricked—get paid. Pick these teams Sunday and avoid Vegas’ mousetrap.


New England Patriots (-3.5) at Seattle

This line looks so low because of strong perceptions about the Seahawks’ defense and their home-field advantage. Their “win” over the Green Bay Packers and another over the inconsistent Cowboys are nice, but the New England Patriots bring the total package that will eventually wear them down.

The difference between Green Bay, Dallas and New England is that the Patriots establish the running game much better than the former two. Last season, they would’ve been in serious trouble at Qwest Field, but a heavy dose of Stevan Ridley, Brandon Bolden and Co. will set up the NE passing attack immensely.

Three-and-a-half points is an easy sacrifice when the Seahawks can’t keep up.


Denver Broncos (-1) at San Diego

Denver may have to travel on the road once again, but the Chargers present their easiest opponent in weeks. A pick-em game in Vegas is great value for a bounce-back Broncos win.

The Broncos have had arguably the toughest five-game slate of any NFL team after facing Atlanta, Houston and New England, among others. Philip Rivers and Co. have a potent offense but hardly the consistency nor the home-field advantage of the previous opponents.

Expect the Broncos to force a few takeaways against the turnover-prone Chargers. After all, Philip Rivers is their quarterback. That should take the load off of Peyton Manning and this Denver offense.


Houston Texans (-3.5) vs. Green Bay

The Green Bay offense has some serious issues. Aaron Rodgers misses his big play-target Greg Jennings, and the offensive line doesn’t protect their quarterback nearly as well as last season.

Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are firing on all cylinders. They have a running game that can score at will or control the clock. Their defense is just as fierce. You can’t say the same thing about any of Green Bay’s units.

This may smell like the Packers’ desperation game, but they need a bye week to get their team healthy more than adversity. Key numbers of four, six and seven are enough for bettors to feel comfortable with the home team.