Las Vegas is in the business of making money. Or, more accurately, taking yours. So, when you find a pick that has serious value, you have to jump all over it.
Week 3 provides a few NFL picks that provide a serious opportunity to out-Vegas the casinos.
Let's check them out.
Houston Texans (-3) vs. Denver Broncos
The short rationale is I don't trust Peyton Manning or the Broncos defense.
Manning couldn't pick apart the Atlanta Falcons. Have you seen the Texans' version? They're pretty good, led by budding star J.J. Watt, Brian Cushing and Johnathan Joseph.
Conversely, Denver hasn't been forced to deal with an offense like Houston's. The Texans feature a double-headed monster in the backfield, and Matt Schaub provides just the right mix of aerial assault. The Broncos are going to be exposed as a play-from-ahead type of team against a squad that doesn't let you build a lead.
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
How many things would have to break the Vikings' way for them to cover this game? The answer has to be somewhere in the 20s. The 49ers would have to completely break character at every position for Minnesota to sniff covering this game.
San Francisco will control the ball with its potent rushing attack and sprinkle in enough passes to score a few touchdowns early.
In the meantime, Adrian Peterson will be taken out of the game by San Fran's lead, leaving Christian Ponder the task of solving the Niners defense.
Detroit Lions (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans
The Lions haven't been able to get anything going on offense. Luckily, the Titans have done even less on defense.
The difference is Detroit has the talent and only needs to regain last season's form. The Titans, however, are in an entirely different boat.
In another twist of luck for the Lions, the defensive line won't have to worry about a rushing "attack." Especially since their aggressive, quarterback-attacking style actually focuses on Tennessee's leading rusher: Jake Locker.
St. Louis Rams (+8) vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears performed well against the Indianapolis Colts. Then they played a team that has more than two players on defense, and they fell apart.
Unfortunately for Chicago fans, the Rams have plenty of talent on the defensive side. James Laurinaitis and Chris Long won't have to deal with Matt Forte, who is nursing a sprained ankle. Additionally, St. Louis has two talented corners who will at least make things difficult for Brandon Marshall, assuming Cutler can get rid of the ball before landing on his back.
Remember, the Rams don't have to score a lot of points—just keep it close.
Now that you've perused the selections, go ahead and see what the line would be on the second mortgage.
Okay, maybe that's a bit extreme. How's your credit card limit?