AL Cy Young Award Rankings: Hiroki Kuroda Debuts in Top 5

Jun 7, 2018

Most free agents who sign with the New York Yankees arrive in the Bronx to find a red carpet and a troupe of trumpeters awaiting them. Those who forsake their old teams in favor of pinstripes tend to be treated as royalty.

This wasn't really the case with Hiroki Kuroda. His decision to sign with the Yankees this past winter was a mere footnote compared to the trade that brought Michael Pineda over from Seattle, which went down just hours before the Kuroda signing was reported.

Between those two deals, it's safe to say that the Kuroda signing has born more fruit. Pineda hasn't pitched at all in 2012. Kuroda, meanwhile, has established himself as one of the American League's top pitchers.

Kuroda has been dancing on the edge of the top five of my weekly AL Cy Young rankings for several weeks at this point, but no longer. It's past time he got his due.

Scroll ahead to see where Kuroda and the other top candidates rank in this week's top five.

Note: All stats are current as of the start of play on Tuesday, September 4, and they come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Honorable Mentions

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Matt Harrison, Texas Rangers

Harrison got lit up his last time out, surrendering seven earned runs on 12 hits in 5.1 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays. Nonetheless, he's still 15-8 on the season with a 3.37 ERA that ranks in the top 10 in the American League. His three complete games and two shutouts also look nice on his resume.

Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays

I've been overlooking Rodney for too long in these rankings. Closers have no business winning the Cy Young, but his 0.72 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 41 saves at least make him worthy of an honorable mention.

Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers

I really wanted to move Scherzer into the top five this week, which may come as a bit of a surprise given his unspectacular 3.93 ERA. He's in the discussion because of his strikeout totals, and his ERA is misleading largely because of his .341 BABIP. With better luck, he'd have a much more impressive ERA.

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels

Weaver may have 16 wins and a 2.86 ERA, but he's compiled an ERA over 6.00 in his last five starts against weak-hitting teams.

The shine has worn off his season, but those who have been keeping up with these rankings will know that I was never all that impressed with Weaver to begin with. Much of his success this season is owed to good luck and good defense.

5. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

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Last Week: No. 3

When we last checked in with Chris Sale, he was fresh off an outstanding 7.2-inning start in which he struck out 13 Yankees while giving up only three hits.

Since then, Sale has come back to earth for what feels like the umpteenth time since the All-Star break.

Sale has logged only 10 innings in his past two starts, giving up a total of eight earned runs on 11 hits and seven walks. Of the 11 hits he's given up, three have left the ballpark.

So it goes for Sale. He's given up at least one home run in each of his last eight starts, and a total of 12 in 52.1 innings pitched. He had given up a mere five home runs in 110.2 innings leading into this eight-start stretch.

The homers are a byproduct of the adjustments the American League has made to Sale since the All-Star break. Batters hit a mere .198 with a .293 slugging percentage against him before the break, and they're hitting .263 with a .474 slugging percentage against him after the break.

Even still, there's only so much you can complain about a guy whose 2.93 ERA ranks fifth in the American League. Sale also ranks fourth in the AL with a 1.08 WHIP and seventh in strikeouts with 162.

The more advanced stats like Sale as well. According to FanGraphs, Sale's 3.36 FIP ties him for fourth in the American League, and he boasts a WAR of 3.9 that is also tied for fourth in the American League.

Another poor start will probably send Sale Weaver's way, but Sale hasn't tended to string together poor starts this season. For a guy who's only 23 years old, he's shown an impressive ability to make adjustments.

4. Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees

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Last Week: Unranked (honorable mention)

It was between Max Scherzer and Hiroki Kuroda to take the space left vacant by Jered Weaver's departure from the top five.

Scherzer was a candidate largely because of his strikeout totals. He ranks second in the AL with 204 strikeouts, and first in K/9 at 11.29. Moreover, his FIP of 3.46 (see FanGraphs) suggests that Scherzer deserves better than his 3.93 ERA.

Kuroda boasts a pedestrian 6.63 K/9, and his 3.84 FIP suggests he actually deserves worse than his 3.04 ERA. He also has a slightly lower WAR than Scherzer.

So then, why Kuroda instead of Scherzer?

Workload is a major reason why. Kuroda has logged over 20 more innings than Scherzer, and he also has three complete games and two shutouts. Scherzer has exactly zero complete games to his name.

Kuroda also deserves the nod because he's been far more consistent than Scherzer, who didn't really get into a groove until early August. Kuroda has been in a groove since late May, going 9-4 with a 2.42 ERA and a .218 opponents' batting average over his last 18 starts.

By comparison, Scherzer is 12-3 with a 3.16 ERA and a .237 opponents' batting average over his last 18 starts. Very good, but not quite as good as Kuroda.

Scherzer does have three more wins this season than Kuroda, sure, but that has little to do with his pitching and everything to do with his run support. Scherzer is getting 5.42 runs of support per game.

Kuroda is only getting 3.80 runs of support per start. He's been forced to walk a very tight rope in his starts, and he still has better numbers than Scherzer.

So for now, Kuroda gets the edge.

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3. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

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Last Week: No. 4

A couple starts ago, David Price gave up six earned runs in just four innings of work against the Texas Rangers. It was the first time in 12 outings that he had failed to log at least seven innings.

Price has now failed to log seven innings in two straight starts after his outing against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. He was done after a mere six and two-thirds.

Which, for the record, is still pretty good.

Price didn't have his best stuff against the Jays, as he walked four and gave up six hits in his 6.2 innings of work. Nonetheless, he managed to hold them to just two earned runs and he ultimately walked away with his AL-leading 17th win.

Price also ranks second in the AL with a 2.54 ERA, and he ranks seventh in innings pitched, sixth in strikeouts, seventh in WHIP and fifth in opponents' batting average.

Price's ERA is no joke. According to FanGraphs, his FIP of 3.21 for the season is good for third in the American League behind Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander. He also ranks third in WAR at an even 4.0.

Price is going to appeal to voters who still value wins and ERA above all else, but there aren't as many of those as there used to be. Savvier voters will favor the next two entries in these rankings, whose resumes are more loaded with impressive stats and accomplishments.

2. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

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Last Week: No. 2

When I sat down to do last week's AL Cy Young rankings, I did so while watching Justin Verlander get lit up for eight earned runs on 12 hits in 5.2 innings against the Kansas City Royals.

For his efforts, Verlander earned a game score of 16, by far the worst of his season.

So needless to say, Verlander went into his prime-time start against the White Sox on Sunday night looking for redemption.

He got it. And then some.

Sunday night's performance was vintage Verlander. He struck out 11 and allowed just four hits and two walks over eight innings, and the only run he gave up came via a leadoff home run off the bat of Alejandro De Aza. After that, Verlander was in control.

Verlander now ranks third in the AL with a 2.73 ERA and second with a WHIP of 1.03. He leads the Junior Circuit in innings pitched, strikeouts and opponents' batting average.

Per FanGraphs, Verlander ranks second in the American League with a FIP of 2.96, and he and Felix Hernandez are tied atop the league with WARs of 5.8.

The Cy Young race is basically between the two of them at this point, with Price in the background waiting to snatch the award should both struggle down the stretch.

As always, there's a case to be made that Verlander should actually be No. 1 on this list. I'll explain why he isn't in the next slide.

1. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

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Last Week: No. 1

On occasion this year, King Felix hasn't looked so kingly.

This was the case his last time out on Saturday against the Los Angeles Angels, who got to him for five runs (four earned) on nine hits and two walks in 7.1 innings. They got to him for four earned runs in the last start he made against them too.

However, there's only so much one can complain about Hernandez's last two outings against the Angels. He only really struggled against Mike Trout when he faced them on August 10, and the Angels didn't get to him until the eighth inning when he faced them on Saturday. He had them under control up until then, and it was largely because of Kyle Seager's error that he lost control of them.

Despite his second straight poor (for him) showing against the Angels, King Felix still leads the American League with a 2.51 ERA, and he ranks third in WHIP at 1.04. He ranks second in the AL in innings pitched, and the only reason he ranks second is because Verlander has recorded exactly one more out than Hernandez this season.

Verlander has one more complete game on his resume as well, but he's only hurled one shutout this season. Hernandez has hurled five, one of which was a perfect game. Of his five shutouts, four were needed to win 1-0 games.

These shutouts are a big feather in Hernandez's cap. His cause is further helped by the fact that he leads the American League with a FIP of 2.80, according to FanGraphs.

These things aside, the fact that Hernandez and Verlander have the exact same WAR is as good an indication as any that they are both having excellent seasons. And though Verlander teased a collapse with his performance against the Royals, it looks like he's not about to give Hernandez any breathing room.

Last one standing gets his second Cy Young award.