NL Rookie of the Year Rankings: Todd Frazier Can No Longer Be Denied No. 1

Will there finally be a change at the top?

Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Wade Miley has held the No. 1 spot in our NL Rookie of the Year rankings for a few weeks now. But Cincinnati Reds infielder Todd Frazier is mounting a serious challenge for front-runner status. 

This week, we also have a new addition to the top five. He's been working his way into consideration for weeks now and finally broke through. The performance of his team won't do him any favors, but that's less of a factor when judging baseball's top rookies. 

As usual, your responses and suggestions are a big part of the decision-making process. (You can also respond to me @iancass on Twitter.) That feedback helps to put together these rankings each week. 

All statistics cited are current as of August 21. 

5. Lucas Harrell, Houston Astros

Last week: Unranked.

Adding Lucas Harrell to our list of top-five NL Rookie of the Year candidates might seem strange after he gave up six runs and eight hits in five innings against the St. Louis Cardinals.

However, in each of his seven previous starts, the Houston Astros right-hander allowed two or fewer runs. In four of those appearances, he gave up only one run. 

As a commenter pointed out in last week's rankings, Harrell has 10 wins. The Astros as a team have 39. By my math, that gives Harrell 26 percent of Houston's wins this year. With 24 wins, Justin Verlander had 25 percent of the Detroit Tigers' 95 victories last season. 

But let's end the comparisons between Harrell and Verlander right there.

For the season, Harrell is 10-9 with a 4.09 ERA in 25 starts for the Astros. He's struck out 105 batters in 151.1 innings while walking 58. That innings total leads NL rookies. Harrell has thrown more innings than even Wade Miley this season.

4. Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies

Last week: No. 4.

Wilin Rosario seems entrenched in the fourth spot of our rankings, not doing enough to move up but still earning consideration as a top-five candidate.

Rosario still leads NL rookies with 19 home runs. Only Mike Trout has hit more among major league first-year players.

The Colorado Rockies catcher ranks second among NL rookies with 49 RBI. His .521 slugging percentage places him second while his .818 OPS is the third-best mark in that category. 

More importantly for the Rockies, Rosario appears to have clamped down on wild pitches and passed balls allowed. Part of that might be due to Ramon Hernandez getting more time behind the plate as the season has progressed.

But Rosario no longer leads major league catchers in either category after having a healthy lead over his peers for quite a few weeks. That's an improvement the Rockies would like their young catcher to sustain through the final six months of the regular season. 

3. Zack Cozart, Cincinnati Reds

Last week: No. 3.

Zack Cozart has certainly been one of the hottest hitters among NL rookies.

The Cincinnati Reds shortstop has an eight-game hitting streak during which he's batted 12-for-33 (.363) with six doubles, a home run and four RBI. That's pushed his batting average to .252, the highest it's been since July 8. Cozart's .712 OPS is the highest mark he's had since June 23.

Since a five-game losing streak in early August, the Reds have won nine of their past 12 games, increasing their lead over the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Central to 7.5 games. 

With his recent run of success, Cozart now leads NL rookies with 119 hits. But he also has 508 plate appearances, thanks largely to Reds manager Dusty Baker batting him in the leadoff spot.

Cozart also continues to give the Reds excellent defense at shortstop. Fangraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating ranks him as the fourth-best defender at that position in the NL. 

2. Wade Miley, Arizona Diamondbacks

Last week: No. 1.

Here's our biggest change in this week's rankings. We have a new front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year. 

Wade Miley didn't do anything to lose the No. 1 spot. In his most recent start, he held the Astros to one run and eight hits over six innings. He also didn't walk any batters while striking out five. 

That performance was a nice rebound from Miley's previous outing, during which he allowed six runs (four earned) and nine hits, and couldn't make it past the fifth inning versus the Washington Nationals. 

With a 2.96 ERA, Miley ranks 11th in the NL. His 1.13 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) is tied for the league's seventh-best mark. 

Miley leads the Arizona Diamondbacks in wins (13) and ERA, though with 104 strikeouts, he probably won't catch Ian Kennedy (138) for the team lead in that category. If he keeps pitching well, however, he could help keep the D-Backs in the NL West race. 

1. Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds

Last week: No. 2.

As we said in the previous slide, it's not that Wade Miley did anything to lose the No. 1 spot. But Todd Frazier has done plenty to leapfrog him and become the front-runner for the NL Rookie of the Year award.

In eight games since last week's rankings, Frazier batted 12-for-27 (.444) with four home runs and seven RBI. Any team would suffer by missing Joey Votto and Scott Rolen from its lineup, but Frazier has been an extremely capable fill-in at first and third base for the Reds. 

As mentioned before, Cincinnati has won nine of its past 12 games, increasing its NL Central lead to 7.5 games. The Reds almost haven't missed a beat despite their MVP candidate being out of the lineup since July 15. 

Frazier leads all NL rookies with 54 RBI. He's right behind Wilin Rosario for the NL rookie home-run lead with 18. Given how much more he plays than Rosario, Frazier could take over the lead by this time next week. 

But most impressive is his NL rookie-leading .913 OPS. Only Mike Trout has a higher mark among rookies in the majors. If Frazier had enough plate appearances to be placed among major-league qualifiers (he's approximately 45 short), his OPS would be the sixth-best in the NL. 

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