AL Cy Young Award Rankings: Jered Weaver Tumbles, King Felix Reigns Again

Zachary D. RymerAug 21, 2012

The Dog Days of August don't seem to agree with Los Angeles Angels ace Jered Weaver all that much.

As some will recall, last season, Weaver's ERA stood at 1.78 when he finished off a complete game shutout against the Seattle Mariners on August 5, 2011. At that point, it looked like he had a legit chance to steal the AL Cy Young award away from Justin Verlander.

He proceeded to go 4-3 with a mere 4.27 ERA the rest of the way, ultimately losing the Cy Young to Verlander.

Right about now, Weaver's 2012 season is looking like a carbon copy of his 2011 season.

Weaver's ERA stood at 2.13 after his complete game shutout of the Oakland A's back on August 6. Many argued then and there that he was a lock to win the Cy Young award.

He has since strung together two straight poor outings, raising his ERA all the way to 2.74. He's gone from being an apparent lock to being a guy who's lucky to even be in the Cy Young discussion.

He certainly has work to do to catch up to Felix Hernandez, who was perfect the last time he took the mound. Until further notice, everyone in the AL Cy Young race is chasing him.

Scroll ahead to see where Weaver and the rest of the competition stand in this week's AL Cy Young rankings.

Note: All stats come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Honorable Mentions

1 of 7

Matt Harrison, Texas Rangers

Harrison hit a rough patch a while back, but he's allowed just three earned runs over 14.1 innings in his last two starts. He's now 14-7 with a 3.19 ERA. According to FanGraphs, he actually has a higher WAR than Jered Weaver.

Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees

Dating back to late May, Kuroda is 9-2 with a 2.22 ERA in his last 16 starts. He's now 12-8 with a 2.96 ERA. He could be in the top five as soon as next week if he continues to dominate.

Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox

Peavy struggled his last time out, giving up five runs (three earned) in 5.1 innings of work. Nonetheless, he still has a solid 3.11 ERA and an AL-best 4.05 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's tied for third in the AL in WAR, according to FanGraphs.

5. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels

2 of 7

Last Week: No. 2

I may have jinxed Weaver.

Despite the fact he lost for the first time since May 13, when he was knocked around by the Mariners on August 12, I bumped him up a spot from No. 3 to No. 2 in last week's rankings. Felix Hernandez moved down to No. 3, due in large part to Mike Trout.

Weaver didn't take to the No. 2 spot all that well, as he proceeded to surrender a career-worst nine earned runs on eight hits and two walks in just three innings of work against the Tampa Bay Rays last Friday.

His ERA has climbed all the way from an AL-best 2.13 to a fifth-best 2.74.

Weaver still leads the AL in WHIP at 0.97, winning percentage at .833 and opponents' batting average at .205, so it's not like his season has turned into an utter disaster after two sub-par outings. That's why he's still in the top five ahead of the surging Kuroda.

Still, I'm skeptical that Weaver will be able to get back to where he was. It looks like his luck has run out.

Make no mistake about it, Weaver was definitely benefiting from good luck when his record, ERA and WHIP all suggested he was the most dominant pitcher in the AL. As shiny as his ERA was, his FIP tended to be roughly a full run higher at any given moment. And through his first 20 starts, he had an unsustainable BABIP of .230.

Weaver's BABIP in his last two starts is .267, and keep in mind that that doesn't take into account the four home runs he's surrendered.

According to FanGraphs, Weaver's FIP is now 3.60. It was 3.22 after he finished his shutout of the A's earlier this month.

You could say he's regressing, but there's less of a discrepancy between his FIP and his ERA now than there was before. As such, it would be more appropriate to say that he's normalizing.

4. Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

3 of 7

Last Week: No. 5

Chris Sale is another guy whose dominance is waning.

Sale has a 4.67 ERA over his last five starts, surrendering eight home runs in just 34.2 innings. He had surrendered a grand total of five home runs over 110.2 innings of work in his first 17 appearances (16 starts) this season.

What's concerning is that Sale has surrendered two home runs in each of his last three starts, and the Kansas City Royals did a lot more than just hit home runs against him the last time he took the mound. In all, they collected nine hits and worked four walks against Sale in 6.2 innings.

Sale picked up a loss to fall to 14-4 on the season. His ERA now sits at 2.72, the highest it's been since May 17.

Sale is ahead of Weaver this week anyway because some of his periphery numbers still make him out to be one of the AL's elite pitchers. His 3.91 K/BB is good for sixth in the AL, and his 8.48 K/9 is still one of the 10 best marks in the AL. His FIP, according to FanGraphs, sits at 3.18.

Only three AL pitchers have him beat in that category: David Price, Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez.

Sale also boasts a WAR of 3.9, which ties him with Jake Peavy for third place in the AL. He actually has a slightly higher WAR than Price and a significantly higher WAR than Weaver.

Sale may be fading a bit, but there's still a lot to like about the season he's having.

TOP NEWS

Bleacher Report3h

Bleacher Report1d

Bleacher Report20h

3. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

4 of 7

Last Week: No. 4

Here's a theory: David Price is actually a machine.

I come before you today with that notion because of what Price has done over his last 11 starts. He's logged at least seven innings in every single one of them, posting a 1.72 ERA and an opponents' batting average of .189. In 78.1 innings, he's struck out 81.

Price now leads the American League with a 2.39 ERA and 16 wins, and he ranks in the top 10 in innings pitched, strikeouts, opponents' batting average and so on and so forth.

Price's 8.83 K/9 is good for fifth in the AL, and FanGraphs has his FIP calculated at 3.16, the third-best mark in the American League.

There's somewhat of a sizable discrepancy between Price's ERA and FIP, but it's hard to accuse him of benefiting from good luck given how dominant he's been over his last 11 starts. Plus, he doesn't exactly have an elite defense behind him every time he takes the mound (unlike Weaver). The Rays manage to save a lot of runs with their various shifts (+25 DRS), but they're also among the league leaders in errors.

Credit where credit is due, Tampa's defense has been doing Price more favors lately, however. After posting a BABIP of .315 in his first 15 starts, his BABIP has plummeted to a much more manageable .238 in his last 11 starts.

Price is definitely making a run at the Cy Young award. The race is basically between him and the next two guys on the list, with everyone else watching from a distance.

As for those next two guys...

2. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

5 of 7

Last Week: No. 1

Justin Verlander didn't have his best stuff the last time he took the mound, as he surrendered three earned runs on six hits and four walks in six innings against the Baltimore Orioles.

That's the thing about Verlander, though. Even when he doesn't have his best stuff, he's still perfectly capable of delivering a quality start.

He's delivered 19 of those this season, for the record, tying him with David Price for the most in the American League. Verlander also boasts a 2.53 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP, both of which rank second in the AL.

Verlander currently leads the AL in innings pitched and strikeouts. He's tied for second with a 4.00 K/BB, and he also ranks second in the AL with a FIP of 2.96, according to FanGraphs.

It all adds up to a WAR of 5.2, the highest for a pitcher in either league.

There's a train of thought out there that Verlander has taken a slight step back this season, and this is utter nonsense. When all is said and done, he could very well end up posting more impressive periphery numbers than he did last year, when he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and captured both the AL Cy Young and the AL MVP.

Yet he's not leading the race for the AL Cy Young award. That should tell you just how good Felix Hernandez has been this season.

But what the heck. I'll go into further detail anyway...

1. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

6 of 7

Last Week: No. 3

Every perfect game is amazing, but what was particularly impressive about Felix Hernandez's perfecto last week was that you could tell by the fifth inning that the Rays were doomed. King Felix always has filthy stuff, but his stuff was basically defying the laws of physics last Wednesday.

So it came as no surprise when he finished off the 23rd perfect game in major league history. He tallied a game score of 99, making his perfecto one of the greatest nine-inning games ever pitched.

King Felix now ranks third in the AL in both ERA and WHIP at 2.50 and 1.04, not to mention second in innings pitched and third in strikeouts. His 8.70 K/9 is good for seventh, and his 3.95 K/BB is good for fifth.

Per FanGraphs, Hernandez is the AL's new leader in FIP at 2.86.

That's part of the reason Hernandez is at No. 1 in these rankings over Verlander. Just as important is the fact that King Felix has been the AL's hottest pitcher dating back to the middle of June, as he's 7-0 with a 1.56 ERA and a .178 opponents' batting average over his last 12 starts.

Verlander, by comparison, is 7-3 with a 2.35 ERA and a .211 opponents' batting average over his last 12 starts. He's been very, very good, but those numbers look rather petty compared to King Felix's numbers.

Plus, Verlander doesn't have a perfect game on his Cy Young resume.

I now have an image in my head of him sitting back in a chair, rubbing his chin and saying, "Challenge accepted."