NL Rookie of the Year Rankings: Wade Miley and Todd Frazier Keep Leading the Way

With approximately two months to go in the 2012 season, has the NL Rookie of the Year race come down to a two-man competition?

Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Wade Miley and Cincinnati Reds infielder Todd Frazier look like the current favorites for the award. But we may have been able to say the same thing about Bryce Harper in June, as early in the season as that was. These things can obviously change quickly.

This week, we're going to address the Anthony Rizzo question once again. The Chicago Cubs first baseman is getting quite a bit of support from commenters, as he is rapidly catching up to the NL rookie leaders in home runs. Yet we're still talking about a player who has played in only 34 games as of Aug. 7.

I still think Yonder Alonso could finish in the top five by the end of the season. The San Diego Padres first baseman had another great week, hitting 7-for-23 (.304) with three doubles, a home run and three RBI. But his season's numbers still lag behind the other top rookies.

One more player who got some support via Twitter is Houston Astros pitcher Lucas Harrell. He's allowed a total of seven earned runs in his past seven starts. Harrell also has 26 strikeouts in 30.2 innings. A 9-7 record and 3.98 ERA for a terrible Astros team is pretty impressive. But unless someone else slides, I don't think Harrell cracks the top five. 

Taking all of these matters into consideration, these five players look like the current leading contenders for the NL Rookie of the Year award. 

We always look forward to your responses and suggestions in the comments. Thanks for your feedback, which factors into these rankings each week. 

The Anthony Rizzo Problem

Since the Chicago Cubs called him up to the majors in late June, Anthony Rizzo has been everything that Cubs executives, coaches, players and fans could have expected. 

Unlike his failed major league debut with the San Diego Padres in 2010—when he hit .141/.281/.242 in 153 plate appearances—Rizzo no longer looks overmatched against top pitching and can handle the competition he faces. 

Rizzo has 142 plate appearances this season and the difference in his game is significant. He's batting .301/.338/.534 with nine home runs and 23 RBI. His .872 OPS is tops among NL first-year players.

The Cubs first baseman is already fifth among NL rookies in home runs and will likely leapfrog several of his peers in the weeks to come. Will he catch Wilin Rosario? Probably not, but it could be close. 

But here's the thing. He's only played in 34 games as of Aug. 7. Compare that to Zack Cozart, who's played in 103. Bryce Harper has appeared in 87 games. Todd Frazier has played in 82. Is it fair to put Rizzo among these players who have played in so many more games this season?

For the sake of argument, I looked at the past 10 position players that won NL Rookie of the Year to see how many games those players appeared in. (Here's the list.) Those 10 players averaged 130 games in a season. Even if he appears in every one of the Cubs' remaining 55 games, Rizzo will come nowhere close to that. 

However, he could appear in a possible 89 games, and there would be some precedent for a player winning the award with that many games. Ryan Howard played in 88 games when he won NL Rookie of the Year in 2005. 

I still think Rizzo has appeared in too few games to warrant serious consideration right now. I'm not sure where the cutoff should begin. Fifty games? Two-hundred plate appearances? But by the end of the season, if Rizzo has played in 80-plus games, maybe that's enough. 

Of course, I'm curious what you think about all this. 

5. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

Last week: No. 5.

So it's become apparent that the coronation of Bryce Harper as NL Rookie of the Year will very likely be canceled.

The Washington Nationals outfielder still has two months to make a strong impression—and he'll certainly get attention if he does so—but it's looking less probable that he'll be the NL's top rookie this season. You don't hear too many of those Mike Trout-Bryce Harper comparisons anymore; it's not even close between the two. 

Was the most notable thing Harper did on the field over the past week breaking his bat on home plate after a strikeout? 

In his past six games, Harper hit 6-for-25 (.240) with a home run and one RBI. That's dropped his batting average to .257 and his OPS to .751. He has 10 homers and 30 RBI for the season. 

Supporters for the Milwaukee Brewers' Norichika Aoki might speak up here and say he deserves to be ranked ahead of Harper. He has a higher batting average (.284), on-base percentage (.353 to .322) and slugging percentage (.422 to .420). Naturally, Aoki has a higher OPS (.775). 

The two players are actually pretty close in almost every category (both have 13 stolen bases, for example), which makes for a good comparison. But by this point next week, perhaps Aoki should have leapfrogged Harper into the top five. Some of you will say this is an overdue move, I'm sure. 

Personally, I still have a problem with giving a 30-year-old player with eight seasons of Japanese baseball under his belt this award. But I should get over that bias. Ichiro Suzuki winning AL Rookie of the Year in 2001 obviously sets a precedent. 

4. Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies

Last week: No. 4.

Giving a young catcher more rest later in the season is a smart move by the Colorado Rockies. Besides the typical pounding that comes with playing such a grueling position, Wilin Rosario has been dealing with an ankle injury that surely hurts his defense behind the plate.

Additionally, the Rockies have a capable veteran backup in Ramon Hernandez, who needs to see some playing time. He also needs to see the field in case the Rockies are still considering dealing him before the Aug. 31 waiver trade deadline. 

Rosario playing in fewer games certainly doesn't help his candidacy for NL Rookie of the Year. Since last week's rankings, he's played in only four games with nine at-bats. Rosario notched two hits during that span, dropping his batting average to .239, the lowest it's been since June 26. 

However, those two hits were both home runs, helping Rosario to drive in a total of four runs. That increased Rosario's rookie-leading total to 18 homers. He also leads NL rookies in RBI with 44. Only Mike Trout has more homers and RBI among major league rookies. Rosario is also one of four NL rookies with an OPS over .800. 

We say this every week with Rosario, but his defensive struggles can't be overlooked. He has now allowed 38 wild pitches for the season. That's seven more than he had last week. With that, it probably shouldn't be a surprise that Hernandez is getting more playing time. 

3. Zack Cozart, Cincinnati Reds

Last week: No. 3.

The Cincinnati Reds are the hottest team in baseball (I resisted the urge to say "red-hot"), winning 19 of their past 24 games. That this surge has occurred with Joey Votto missing 21 of those games and Brandon Phillips out for five makes the successful run even more impressive.

Part of that success is due to Zack Cozart's play at shortstop for the Reds. In his past six games, Cozart hit 8-for-26 (.308) with two home runs and four RBI. While his .247 batting average and .694 OPS don't look terribly impressive, Cozart is slugging .400. That puts him among the top 10 NL rookies. 

With 103 hits, Cozart is tied for the NL rookie lead in that category. His 22 doubles rank second. And if you like runs scored as a statistic, Cozart is also tied for the lead in that category with 58. 

Would Cozart have better numbers if he wasn't being used as a miscast leadoff hitter by Reds manager Dusty Baker? Perhaps his approach would be different, depending on whether he's being asked to do typical leadoff hitter stuff like take pitches and work the count.

Cozart's statistics indicate he's just swinging away, however. And Baker is apparently happy with that, especially since Cozart brings some pop to the top of the order and can put a run on the board with one swing. His 12 home runs rank third among NL rookies. 

Good defense at shortstop is also important for Baker, and Cozart fulfills that requirement nicely. Fangraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating puts him fourth among NL shortstops. He's also fourth at the position with six defensive runs saved. 

2. Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds

Last week: No. 2.

As mentioned in the previous slide with Zack Cozart, the Cincinnati Reds continue to win games and stay ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Central despite two of their best hitters missing significant time. 

Where would the Reds be without Todd Frazier this season? He filled in for Scott Rolen at third base while he was out with a shoulder injury. Now, with Joey Votto still recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery, Frazier has been a reliable substitute at first base.

In his six games since last week's rankings, Frazier has struggled a bit, batting 4-for-22 (.182). But he did hit a home run and drive in five runs during that span. That kept him second among NL rookies with 13 homers and 42 RBI. 

His .517 slugging percentage and .842 OPS are second among NL rookies who have appeared in at least 60 games. (We'll call that the Anthony Rizzo qualifier.) 

That's helped Dusty Baker put together a deep batting order that provides a tough matchup for opposing pitching staffs. Even after getting through the Reds' tough middle of the order, there's Frazier batting seventh, providing a run-producing threat for the bottom third of the lineup. 

Perhaps the most compelling storyline for the Reds through the end of the season will be how Baker manages to keep Frazier in the lineup once Votto returns. Will he replace Rolen at third base, as he should? The more likely scenario will have Frazier rotating among third base, first base and left field. 

The fact that Baker has to manipulate his lineup and make some tough decisions says everything about how well Frazier has played. He has to be in the lineup.

1. Wade Miley, Arizona Diamondbacks

Last week: No. 1.

Allowing no earned runs over six innings against the NL Central-leading Pittsburgh Pirates did nothing to hurt Wade Miley's status as front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year. 

Amazingly, Miley took the loss in that game, as the D-Backs lineup couldn't score any runs versus Erik Bedard. Fortunately, we're all evolved enough as baseball fans now to know that win-loss record isn't a true measure of a pitcher's merit. 

Not that Miley suffers in that department anyway. His 12-7 record and 2.85 ERA put him among the leading pitchers in the National League. Those 12 wins tie him for the third-most victories among NL starters while his ERA ranks sixth. 

Miley will also get a chance to pitch some meaningful baseball if the D-Backs can stay competitive in the NL West. As of Aug. 7, Arizona is four games behind the San Francisco Giants in what's becoming a tight division race. However, the D-Backs are 7.5 games back in the wild-card standings, so winning the NL West is their best chance at the postseason. 

At this point, the thing that could most hurt Miley's chances at this award is if the D-Backs impose an innings limit on him in his first full major league season. But between the minors and majors last season, Miley pitched 160 innings. So going up to 180 or even 200 shouldn't be a problem for him. 

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