Breaking Down the Potential Impact of the NFL Locking Out Referees

For the second year in a row, the NFL has locked out some of its employees, and it could have a major impact on the upcoming season.

Last month, negotiations between the NFL and the NFL Referees Association reached a boiling point, and the league—like it did to players last year—locked out the officials.

Fast-forward to the present, and the NFL is busy training replacements, while the locked-out referees have begun a media tour telling their side of the story. Meanwhile, no further negotiations have taken place, and it's starting to look like replacement refs will be part of the NFL narrative this season, as noted by Mike Pereira, former NFL vice president of officiating:

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Pereira- His best guess at this point is that we could be looking at replacement officials for the first 3 weeks of the season. NOT GOOD!

— Rich Gannon (@RichGannon12) July 23, 2012"

What can NFL fans look forward to in a league using replacement refs?

Fewer Whistles, More Mistakes Made

If you've ever been angry at referees or blamed them for your favorite team's collapse, get ready for a season of frustration. From the Los Angeles Times' Sam Farmer:

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If the replacements are used, history could be made. One of them is Shannon Eastin, who has been a referee in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference and other leagues. The NFL has never had a woman work as an on-field game official.

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Eastin officiating in the NFL would be a landmark moment, and hopefully, the NFL reaches a point where female referees are more normal. However, it isn't her gender that is concerning; it's where she normally works. The Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference is FCS level and holds such powerhouses as Bethune-Cookman and Morgan State.

That's right—Eastin and the rest will go from officiating games of players you've never heard of (and likely never will) to working games played by some of the highest-paid athletes on the planet. Worse yet, Eastin may be one of the more experienced replacement refs, as the NFL is even looking at refs from high school and NCAA Division II and III.

The NFL apparently doesn't see a problem with this. Fans should.

More from Pereira (via Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk):

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The bottom line is the current group of 120 union referees has over 1,200 years of NFL officiating experience and you’re going to replace that with zero years’ experience. They need to get this settled.

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No amount of training will prepare these replacement officials for the speed of the NFL. Calls will be missed—clear holds that spring touchdowns, roughing-the-passer infractions that leave everyone looking for a flag and passes interfered with but not accompanied by whistles.

From Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune (via Chuck Schilken of the Los Angeles Times):

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When replacement officials worked games in 2001, referee Ed Hochuli said those officials threw between 1-5 penalty flags per game. That is a significant difference from the 12-14 flags whistled by regular NFL officials last season.

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Don't start the "good, let them play" calls either. Every fan thinks referees should swallow their whistles, right up until those missed calls happen to their favorite superstar. This won't be an occasional uncalled penalty here or there; it will be systemic. It will threaten the integrity of the games played and, if prolonged, will place a giant asterisk on the 2012 NFL season.

More Players Getting Hurt

For a league that pays some serious lip service to player safety, using replacement refs is a serious lapse in judgement.

Standing together with the referees, the NFL Players Association held a player safety clinic for the locked-out refs. With the refs gathered at NFLPA headquarters in Washington, D.C., Dr. Thom Mayer discussed the safety issues that players worry about and how referees can better protect the players.

The refs are the first line of defense against the NFL turning into a M*A*S*H unit. While Roger Goodell remains content with fining players after the fact (or just fining James Harrison for kicks and giggles), the refs are actually protecting players in ways the league office could never dream of.

With replacement refs, expect to see mistakes on the field leading to players unable to take the field.

From Len Pasquarelli of The SportsXchange:

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"If (some) calls aren't made...you're going to have some (unsafe) things going on, and it could get a little nasty in there," said referee Scott Green, president of the NFL Referees Association, during a midday conference call with national media.

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When the on-field law starts to fail, vigilantism will soon take over. One uncalled head shot turns into a leg whip, which turns into some after-the-whistle shenanigans right up until someone's franchise quarterback gets his knee taken out. It's not far-fetched; it's a near-certainty in the wild, wild West that the NFL is ready to unleash on its players.

Last year, the NFL lockout was said to pit "millionaires against billionaires," but this year pits those same billionaires against their part-time employees. Almost all refs have other jobs. Some are teachers; others practice law; still others ref at lower levels in their spare time.

Instead of locking out the refs, the NFL should continue to explore options to finally make referees full-time employees. With nothing else on their minds, officiating would improve, and time could be made for extra training and passing on their expertise to the referees of tomorrow. That would set the NFL on a road of increased accuracy of on-field calls and increased player safety.

That's not the route the NFL has decided to take. The NFL offices and team owners, stewards of one of the country's most lucrative businesses, are ready to shipwreck the game over a tiny fraction of their profits.

The real impact from these replacement refs will be felt by the players who won't be able to do their jobs as effectively and the fans who will be watching an inferior product.

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Michael Schottey is an NFL Associate Editor for Bleacher Report and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America. He has professionally covered both the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions, as well as NFL events like the scouting combine and the Senior Bowl.