MLB Hall of Fame Induction: Odds for the Top 15 Players on the Ballot in 2013
Barry Larkin and Ron Santo will be the next two players enshrined in Cooperstown later this summer. There will a number of players that will look to join them next year as a member of the MLB Hall of Fame Class of 2013.
The voting for the players on the 2013 ballot will certainly be different than it has been in previous years. A number of players that have been linked to steroids will appear on the ballot for the first time.
Voters will have to take this into consideration, and therefore some players with phenomenal numbers may not be selected for the Hall of Fame.
Career Stats: .263/.384/.588, 1,626 H, 583 HR, 1,414 RBI, 12 SB, 163 OPS+ (16 years)
Mark McGwire has already been on the ballot for six years and he has never received more than 24 percent of the vote. Even after he admitted to using steroids, McGwire did not see a big boost in votes.
With a number of other steroid-era players with better numbers this season, it seems very unlikely that McGwire will suddenly gain a large enough percentage of votes to be selected for the Hall of Fame.
Odds: One percent
Career Stats: .288/.371/.515, 3,020 H, 569 HR, 1,835 RBI, 97 SB, 132 OPS+ (20 years)
Most players with over 3,000 hits and more than 550 home runs with be a stone-cold lock for the Hall of Fame. Rafael Palmeiro seemingly has no chance to get in, though.
After testing positive for a banned substance in 2005, Palmeiro was suspended for 10 games and essentially lost his chance at making the Hall of Fame as a result.
Odds: Two percent
Career Stats: .297/.381/.477, 2,336 H, 287 HR, 1,257 RBI, 147 SB, 125 OPS+ (16 years)
Bernie Williams was a very good player during his career with the New York Yankees. The problem for Williams is that the Hall of Fame is for elite players.
Williams garnered just under 10 percent of the vote on the 2012 ballot and his vote total should stay similar to that number this year.
Odds: Four percent
Career Stats: .273/.344/.534, 2,408 H, 609 HR, 1,667 RBI, 234 SB, 138 OPS+ (18 years)
Sammy Sosa may have captivated the United States when he was involved in the home run race with Mark McGwire in the summer of 1998, but he lost a lot of support when it was announced that he was one of the players that failed a drug test in 2003 (h/t Michael Schmidt of The New York Times).
As a result of this positive test, there seems to be little chance that Sosa will be selected for the Hall of Fame during his first year on the ballot.
Odds: Six percent
Career Stats: .284/.377/.509, 2,490 H, 493 HR, 1,550 RBI, 72 SB, 134 OPS+ (19 years)
Fred McGriff got just under 24 percent of the vote during his third season in the ballot. This was the highest vote total that he has ever received.
The "Crime Dog" fell just short of the 500-home run mark which is certainly costing him some votes. He is a borderline Hall of Fame player, but his vote totals will likely not be as high as they should be.
Odds: 10 percent
Career Stats: .312/.418/.515, 2,247 H, 309 HR, 1,261 RBI, 49 SB, 147 OPS+ (18 years)
One of the reasons that it is so hard to evaluate Edgar Martinez's chances for the Hall of Fame is because he was almost exclusively a DH throughout his career.
While Martinez was one of the best designated hitters of all time, he is seemingly only a borderline Hall of Fame candidate. Martinez was likely hurt by the fact that he rarely played in the field. On the last ballot, Martinez received 36.5 percent of the vote.
Odds: 12 percent
Career Stats: .294/.385/.425, 2,605 H, 170 HR, 980 RBI, 808 SB, 123 OPS+ (23 years)
Tim Raines has started to gain some traction in the Hall of Fame voting as he went from receiving 37.5 percent of the vote in 2011 to getting 48.7 percent of the vote in 2012.
If the voters choose not to select some of the steroid-era players, Raines should see another vote increase. It likely will not be enough to get him to the magical 75 percent mark, but it should help improve his chances over the next few years.
Odds: 15 percent
Career Stats: 71-92, 478 SV, 3.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 1,251 K, 132 ERA+ (18 years)
There are not many closers that are in the Hall of Fame, but Lee Smith has the chance to be the next one chosen. He is third all-time in saves behind just Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman.
Since he was placed on the ballot in 2003, Smith has been between 40 and 50 percent of the vote. He could be in that range this year or he could see a bit of an increase from the 50.6 percent of the votes he received last year.
Odds: 20 percent
Career Stats: 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4,672 K, 143 ERA+ (24 years)
Roger Clemens certainly has Hall of Fame numbers. However, the fact that he has been linked to steroids and has gone to court for perjury charges (he was acquitted) have an impact on his candidacy.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has already stated that he will not vote for Clemens during his first year of eligibility. There may certainly be more writers that feel the same way and that could keep Clemens out of the Hall of Fame for the time being.
Odds: 20 percent
Career Stats: .298/.444/.607, 2,935 H, 762 HR, 1,996 RBI, 514 SB, 182 OPS+ (22 years)
Even if Barry Bonds is selected to the Hall of Fame in 2013, the debate will rage on for years about whether or not he is deserving of a spot amongst baseball's all-time greats. There is no denying that Bonds was a special talent, but he did have a bit of help.
Bonds is the sole member of the 500-home run, 500-stolen base club and he is baseball's all-time home run leader.
Jon Heyman wrote a piece for Sports Illustrated in which he detailed why Bonds belongs in the Hall, while John Harper of the New York Daily News believes that Bonds does not deserve a spot in Cooperstown.
Odds: 33 percent
Career Stats: .297/.408/.540, 2,314 H, 449 HR, 1,529 RBI, 202 SB, 149 OPS+ (15 years)
A former National League Rookie of the Year and National League MVP, Jeff Bagwell saw a healthy increase in his vote total between 2011 and 2012 as his vote total went from 41.7 percent to 56 percent.
Speculation has run rampant that Bagwell has used steroids in the past, but there has never been a strong connection between him and the illicit drugs (h/t Jerry Crasnick of ESPN). It seems like Bagwell will eventually reach the Hall of Fame, but he may fall just short this year.
Odds: 40 percent
Career Stats: 254-186, 3.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2,478 K, 105 ERA+ (18 years)
Jack Morris went from receiving 22 percent of the vote in 2000 to getting 66.7 percent of the vote in 2012. This year will be the 14th year that Morris is on the ballot.
Even though Morris was close to being elected to the Hall of Fame last year, he is not the most deserving candidate. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports believes that the lasting image of Morris' 10-inning gem in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series has helped his candidacy, but ultimately he does not believe that Morris deserving of a vote. With a 105 ERA+, Morris was a just-above-league-average pitcher.
Odds: 50 percent
Career Stats: 216-146, 22 SV, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3,116 K, 127 ERA+ (20 years)
There is already a little piece of Curt Schilling in the Hall of Fame thanks to his outstanding performance in the "Bloody Sock Game" in the 2004 ALCS vs. the Yankees. Now, Schilling has the chance to get a plaque in Cooperstown.
Mark Simon of ESPN has argued that Schilling can be compared to Bob Gibson and that he deserves to make the Hall of Fame in his first year on the ballot. It will be a very close call with Schilling and he should get at least 60 percent of the vote, if not more.
Odds: 70 percent
Career Stats: .281/.363/.433, 3,060 H, 291 HR, 1,175 RBI, 414 SB, 112 OPS+ (20 years)
During the 1990s, Craig Biggio was consistently near the top of the National League leaderboards in both runs scored and hits. He also picked up four Gold Gloves during that time.
Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times makes the case for Biggio this year. It may end up coming down to a few votes to decide if the modern-day hit-by-pitch record holder will go into the Hall of Fame in 2013.
Odds: 85 percent
Career Stats: .308/.377/.545, 2,127 H, 427 HR, 1,335 RBI, 17 SB, 143 OPS+ (16 years)
There is a debate about whether or not Mike Piazza is the best offensive catcher of all time, but there should not need to be a similar conversation about Piazza's Hall of Fame candidacy.
Piazza should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He is a 12-time All-Star and a former National League Rookie of the Year. There is a question about if Piazza will have a New York Mets hat or a Los Angeles Dodgers hat on his induction plaque, but Piazza has stated that he would like to see the Mets logo (h/t Aaron Gleeman of NBC Sports).
Odds: 98 percent
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